2014 EPAC Season

[Yellow Evan]

6z GFS still developing stuff in the long range.

[somethingfunny]

^ What is that ring of isobars over Hawaii? I've been noticing that from time to time long before the current situation with Iselle and Julio. I see it along most of the other coastlines too but it just sticks out like a sore thumb over Hawaii. Whether it's "a glitch in the matrix" or just a naturally occurring event over coastal waters.... what is it, what causes it?

[Yellow Evan]

^ What is that ring of isobars over Hawaii? I've been noticing that from time to time long before the current situation with Iselle and Julio. I see it along most of the other coastlines too but it just sticks out like a sore thumb over Hawaii. Whether it's "a glitch in the matrix" or just a naturally occurring event over coastal waters.... what is it, what causes it?

I think it's naturally occurring.

[Hurricane_Luis]

^ What is that ring of isobars over Hawaii? I've been noticing that from time to time long before the current situation with Iselle and Julio. I see it along most of the other coastlines too but it just sticks out like a sore thumb over Hawaii. Whether it's "a glitch in the matrix" or just a naturally occurring event over coastal waters.... what is it, what causes it?

I noticed that to but never really read anything into it. I think its the surface pressure forecast, for some reason the computer that made the chart cannot get over a landmass, so the isobars get distorted.

[Yellow Evan]

[Yellow Evan]

0z CMC has picked up on this as well

[hurricanes1234]

Is this what forms from 98E?

[Yellow Evan]

Is this what forms from 98E?

No. Look at the time frame It's very long range.

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure could form early next week a few hundred
miles south of the coast of Mexico. Some slow development of
this system is possible after that time while it moves to the west
or west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

Not much support on GFS, but conditions should once again be very favorable.

[Kingarabian]

Best chances for anything to form right now is due west. I think Mexican brews are later in the season.

[Yellow Evan]

Best chances for anything to form right now is due west. I think Mexican brews are later in the season.

GFS shows low shear everywhere.

CFS hints at development near the coast in the long range.

Pretty much, everywhere is favorable.

[Yellow Evan]

Karina.



Lowell.



Agrees with development closer to the coast.

MJO is not favorable, but given the results, this season, does it matter much?

[Yellow Evan]

Disorganized cloudiness and showers centered a couple hundred miles
south of Guatemala are associated with a tropical wave. Strong
upper-level winds are forecast to prevent significant development
of the wave during the next couple of days. After that time,
however, environmental conditions are expected to become more
conducive for some development by mid-week while the system moves
westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[hurricanes1234]

August has been amazingly active thus far. If some seasons struggle to get even one hurricane in CPAC, well, this year, we got three hurricanes at least passing through the basin in August alone! Absolutely stunning.

[Yellow Evan]

August has been amazingly active thus far. If some seasons struggle to get even one hurricane in CPAC, well, this year, we got three hurricanes at least passing through the basin in August alone! Absolutely stunning.

Yea, this season has been behaving like the glory day seasons in the 80's and 90's did.

[somethingfunny]

August has been amazingly active thus far. If some seasons struggle to get even one hurricane in CPAC, well, this year, we got three hurricanes at least passing through the basin in August alone! Absolutely stunning.

And the best part is all three of those CPAC storms used EPAC names so I can still have my dream of Ana (the next CPAC name) confusing everybody by existing simultaneously in the Atlantic and the CPAC next year.

[Yellow Evan]

August has been amazingly active thus far. If some seasons struggle to get even one hurricane in CPAC, well, this year, we got three hurricanes at least passing through the basin in August alone! Absolutely stunning.

And the best part is all three of those CPAC storms used EPAC names so I can still have my dream of Ana (the next CPAC name) confusing everybody by existing simultaneously in the Atlantic and the CPAC next year.

Imagine if Ana threatened Hawaii while Ana in the ATL threatened the Gulf Coast at the same time.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS develops something strong from Pouch 17L I think (currently over Central Africa)



CMC unrealistically shows tons of systems. We have a Kelvin Wave, so like late July, won't shock me to see a bunch of AOI's develop and maybe 1 or 2 TC's. AFAIK this Kelvin Wave is not as powerful.

[Yellow Evan]

2. A broad area of low pressure has formed about 1500 miles
east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii. Any development of
this system is expected to be slow to occur over the next few days
while it moves to the west or west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.