2014 EPAC Season

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Yellow Evan
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Re: 2014 EPAC Season

#781 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Aug 05, 2014 9:32 am

Image

6z GFS still developing stuff in the long range.

Image
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#782 Postby somethingfunny » Tue Aug 05, 2014 1:46 pm

^ What is that ring of isobars over Hawaii? I've been noticing that from time to time long before the current situation with Iselle and Julio. I see it along most of the other coastlines too but it just sticks out like a sore thumb over Hawaii. Whether it's "a glitch in the matrix" or just a naturally occurring event over coastal waters.... what is it, what causes it?
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#783 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Aug 05, 2014 1:56 pm

somethingfunny wrote:^ What is that ring of isobars over Hawaii? I've been noticing that from time to time long before the current situation with Iselle and Julio. I see it along most of the other coastlines too but it just sticks out like a sore thumb over Hawaii. Whether it's "a glitch in the matrix" or just a naturally occurring event over coastal waters.... what is it, what causes it?


I think it's naturally occurring.
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Re: 2014 EPAC Season

#784 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Tue Aug 05, 2014 3:07 pm

somethingfunny wrote:^ What is that ring of isobars over Hawaii? I've been noticing that from time to time long before the current situation with Iselle and Julio. I see it along most of the other coastlines too but it just sticks out like a sore thumb over Hawaii. Whether it's "a glitch in the matrix" or just a naturally occurring event over coastal waters.... what is it, what causes it?


I noticed that to but never really read anything into it. I think its the surface pressure forecast, for some reason the computer that made the chart cannot get over a landmass, so the isobars get distorted.
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#785 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Aug 05, 2014 8:38 pm

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Re: 2014 EPAC Season

#786 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Aug 06, 2014 11:18 am

Image

0z CMC has picked up on this as well
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#787 Postby hurricanes1234 » Thu Aug 07, 2014 6:57 am

Is this what forms from 98E?
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#788 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Aug 07, 2014 10:34 am

hurricanes1234 wrote:Is this what forms from 98E?


No. Look at the time frame :P It's very long range.
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Re: 2014 EPAC Season

#789 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 08, 2014 6:34 pm

An area of low pressure could form early next week a few hundred
miles south of the coast of Mexico. Some slow development of
this system is possible after that time while it moves to the west
or west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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#790 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Aug 08, 2014 9:39 pm

Not much support on GFS, but conditions should once again be very favorable.
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#791 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Aug 08, 2014 10:03 pm

Best chances for anything to form right now is due west. I think Mexican brews are later in the season.
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#792 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Aug 08, 2014 10:50 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Best chances for anything to form right now is due west. I think Mexican brews are later in the season.


GFS shows low shear everywhere.

CFS hints at development near the coast in the long range.

Pretty much, everywhere is favorable.
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Re: 2014 EPAC Season

#793 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Aug 09, 2014 10:30 pm

Image

Karina.

Image

Lowell.

Image

Agrees with development closer to the coast.

MJO is not favorable, but given the results, this season, does it matter much?
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#794 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 10, 2014 12:44 am

Disorganized cloudiness and showers centered a couple hundred miles
south of Guatemala are associated with a tropical wave. Strong
upper-level winds are forecast to prevent significant development
of the wave during the next couple of days. After that time,
however, environmental conditions are expected to become more
conducive for some development by mid-week while the system moves
westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
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#795 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Aug 11, 2014 9:54 am

August has been amazingly active thus far. If some seasons struggle to get even one hurricane in CPAC, well, this year, we got three hurricanes at least passing through the basin in August alone! Absolutely stunning.
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Re:

#796 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 11, 2014 10:06 am

hurricanes1234 wrote:August has been amazingly active thus far. If some seasons struggle to get even one hurricane in CPAC, well, this year, we got three hurricanes at least passing through the basin in August alone! Absolutely stunning.


Yea, this season has been behaving like the glory day seasons in the 80's and 90's did.
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Re:

#797 Postby somethingfunny » Mon Aug 11, 2014 10:34 am

hurricanes1234 wrote:August has been amazingly active thus far. If some seasons struggle to get even one hurricane in CPAC, well, this year, we got three hurricanes at least passing through the basin in August alone! Absolutely stunning.


And the best part is all three of those CPAC storms used EPAC names so I can still have my dream of Ana (the next CPAC name) confusing everybody by existing simultaneously in the Atlantic and the CPAC next year. :ggreen:
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Re: Re:

#798 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 11, 2014 10:58 am

somethingfunny wrote:
hurricanes1234 wrote:August has been amazingly active thus far. If some seasons struggle to get even one hurricane in CPAC, well, this year, we got three hurricanes at least passing through the basin in August alone! Absolutely stunning.


And the best part is all three of those CPAC storms used EPAC names so I can still have my dream of Ana (the next CPAC name) confusing everybody by existing simultaneously in the Atlantic and the CPAC next year. :ggreen:


Imagine if Ana threatened Hawaii while Ana in the ATL threatened the Gulf Coast at the same time.
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Re: 2014 EPAC Season

#799 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 11, 2014 11:48 am

Image

GFS develops something strong from Pouch 17L I think (currently over Central Africa)

Image

CMC unrealistically shows tons of systems. We have a Kelvin Wave, so like late July, won't shock me to see a bunch of AOI's develop and maybe 1 or 2 TC's. AFAIK this Kelvin Wave is not as powerful.
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#800 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 11, 2014 7:40 pm

2. A broad area of low pressure has formed about 1500 miles
east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii. Any development of
this system is expected to be slow to occur over the next few days
while it moves to the west or west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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