CPAC: ISELLE - Post-Tropical

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Re: CPAC: ISELLE - Hurricane

#961 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Aug 07, 2014 2:22 pm

Colder cloud tops blow up just in time for recon pass

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#962 Postby tallywx » Thu Aug 07, 2014 2:24 pm

I'm also concerned that the tree cover on the Big Island isn't used to this type of stress at all. The air is so stable there usually that yes, they get a lot of windward showers, but even a run-of-the-mill thunderstorm is a rare occurrence.

To wit, the highest wind gust Hilo International Aiport experienced in all of 2013 was 32 mph. They gusted to 40 mph once earlier this year. Many things are going to be tested in ways that we take for granted in the lower 48.
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#963 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Aug 07, 2014 2:24 pm

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Ragged and not pretty. Went through war to get to the islands. Remarkable feat. I hope it passes by quickly, swiftly, and more importantly, HARMLESS. :flag:
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Re: Re:

#964 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Aug 07, 2014 2:26 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:IIRC during Hurricane Tomas (2010) in St. Lucia, it was a Cat 2 but the winds were much stronger in the elevated areas of the island...damage more typical of a Cat 3 or 4 resulted.


How high is that?


That was about 1,000 to 3,000 feet.


Imagine what the winds are at 12,000 feet for Iselle. Cat 4 intensity?
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Re:

#965 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Aug 07, 2014 2:27 pm

Kingarabian wrote:http://i.imgur.com/NiNyR9w.jpg

Ragged and not pretty. Went through war to get to the islands. Remarkable feat. I hope it passes by quickly, swiftly, and more importantly, HARMLESS. :flag:


I think the Great Hawaiian Shear may finally be kicking in at last.
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Re:

#966 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Aug 07, 2014 2:32 pm

tallywx wrote:I'm also concerned that the tree cover on the Big Island isn't used to this type of stress at all. The air is so stable there usually that yes, they get a lot of windward showers, but even a run-of-the-mill thunderstorm is a rare occurrence.

To wit, the highest wind gust Hilo International Aiport experienced in all of 2013 was 32 mph. They gusted to 40 mph once earlier this year. Many things are going to be tested in ways that we take for granted in the lower 48.


Spot on sir, spot on.
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#967 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Aug 07, 2014 2:33 pm

I'm really happy you are all here sharing your input. Makes others and I feel that much more safer.
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Re:

#968 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Aug 07, 2014 2:34 pm

Kingarabian wrote:I'm really happy you are all here sharing your input. Makes others and I feel that much more safer.


Thanks.
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#969 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Aug 07, 2014 2:37 pm

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#970 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Aug 07, 2014 2:38 pm

What is the latest from Recon?
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#971 Postby WeatherGuesser » Thu Aug 07, 2014 2:39 pm

When I said 'higher up', I was thinking above 3,000-4,000'. I don't really consider 500-1,000 or so all that high.
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Re:

#972 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Aug 07, 2014 2:41 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:What is the latest from Recon?


Borderline Hurricane/Tropical Sorm. New blowup of convection though. They'll probably keep it as cane' just incase.
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Re: Re:

#973 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Aug 07, 2014 2:46 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:What is the latest from Recon?


Borderline Hurricane/Tropical Sorm. New blowup of convection though. They'll probably keep it as cane' just incase.


SAB is at 77 knts, and they like to factor in satellite intensity estimates. I say it'll be 65-70 knts.
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Re: CPAC: ISELLE - Hurricane

#974 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Aug 07, 2014 2:49 pm

69kt at filght level with 60kt SFMR wind are very marginal for a hurricane
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#975 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Aug 07, 2014 2:50 pm

Recon supports 60 kt, although given the spatial coverage of the SFMR they might hold it at 65 kt.
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Re: CPAC: ISELLE - Hurricane

#976 Postby tallywx » Thu Aug 07, 2014 2:53 pm

What is causing the storm to weaken? SSTs are more than adequate, shear appears light. How is the thermodynamic environment different from a westward-marching Cape Verde system?
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Re: CPAC: ISELLE - Hurricane

#977 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Aug 07, 2014 2:55 pm

tallywx wrote:What is causing the storm to weaken? SSTs are more than adequate, shear appears light. How is the thermodynamic environment different from a westward-marching Cape Verde system?


There is about 20-30 kt of shear to the north.
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Re: CPAC: ISELLE - Hurricane

#978 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Aug 07, 2014 2:55 pm

tallywx wrote:What is causing the storm to weaken? SSTs are more than adequate, shear appears light. How is the thermodynamic environment different from a westward-marching Cape Verde system?

Shear is expected to be deadly right upon landfall. Could be feeling the beginning effects of it.
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Re: CPAC: ISELLE - Hurricane

#979 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Aug 07, 2014 2:56 pm

tallywx wrote:What is causing the storm to weaken? SSTs are more than adequate, shear appears light. How is the thermodynamic environment different from a westward-marching Cape Verde system?

Shear have been slowly increasing since this morning, probably around 15-20kt right now
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#980 Postby JonathanBelles » Thu Aug 07, 2014 2:57 pm

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