
CPAC: ISELLE - Post-Tropical
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I'm also concerned that the tree cover on the Big Island isn't used to this type of stress at all. The air is so stable there usually that yes, they get a lot of windward showers, but even a run-of-the-mill thunderstorm is a rare occurrence.
To wit, the highest wind gust Hilo International Aiport experienced in all of 2013 was 32 mph. They gusted to 40 mph once earlier this year. Many things are going to be tested in ways that we take for granted in the lower 48.
To wit, the highest wind gust Hilo International Aiport experienced in all of 2013 was 32 mph. They gusted to 40 mph once earlier this year. Many things are going to be tested in ways that we take for granted in the lower 48.
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Re: Re:
CrazyC83 wrote:Yellow Evan wrote:CrazyC83 wrote:IIRC during Hurricane Tomas (2010) in St. Lucia, it was a Cat 2 but the winds were much stronger in the elevated areas of the island...damage more typical of a Cat 3 or 4 resulted.
How high is that?
That was about 1,000 to 3,000 feet.
Imagine what the winds are at 12,000 feet for Iselle. Cat 4 intensity?
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Kingarabian wrote:http://i.imgur.com/NiNyR9w.jpg
Ragged and not pretty. Went through war to get to the islands. Remarkable feat. I hope it passes by quickly, swiftly, and more importantly, HARMLESS.
I think the Great Hawaiian Shear may finally be kicking in at last.
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Re:
tallywx wrote:I'm also concerned that the tree cover on the Big Island isn't used to this type of stress at all. The air is so stable there usually that yes, they get a lot of windward showers, but even a run-of-the-mill thunderstorm is a rare occurrence.
To wit, the highest wind gust Hilo International Aiport experienced in all of 2013 was 32 mph. They gusted to 40 mph once earlier this year. Many things are going to be tested in ways that we take for granted in the lower 48.
Spot on sir, spot on.
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Kingarabian wrote:I'm really happy you are all here sharing your input. Makes others and I feel that much more safer.
Thanks.
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Yellow Evan wrote:What is the latest from Recon?
Borderline Hurricane/Tropical Sorm. New blowup of convection though. They'll probably keep it as cane' just incase.
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Kingarabian wrote:Yellow Evan wrote:What is the latest from Recon?
Borderline Hurricane/Tropical Sorm. New blowup of convection though. They'll probably keep it as cane' just incase.
SAB is at 77 knts, and they like to factor in satellite intensity estimates. I say it'll be 65-70 knts.
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Re: CPAC: ISELLE - Hurricane
69kt at filght level with 60kt SFMR wind are very marginal for a hurricane
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Re: CPAC: ISELLE - Hurricane
What is causing the storm to weaken? SSTs are more than adequate, shear appears light. How is the thermodynamic environment different from a westward-marching Cape Verde system?
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Re: CPAC: ISELLE - Hurricane
tallywx wrote:What is causing the storm to weaken? SSTs are more than adequate, shear appears light. How is the thermodynamic environment different from a westward-marching Cape Verde system?
There is about 20-30 kt of shear to the north.
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Re: CPAC: ISELLE - Hurricane
tallywx wrote:What is causing the storm to weaken? SSTs are more than adequate, shear appears light. How is the thermodynamic environment different from a westward-marching Cape Verde system?
Shear is expected to be deadly right upon landfall. Could be feeling the beginning effects of it.
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Re: CPAC: ISELLE - Hurricane
tallywx wrote:What is causing the storm to weaken? SSTs are more than adequate, shear appears light. How is the thermodynamic environment different from a westward-marching Cape Verde system?
Shear have been slowly increasing since this morning, probably around 15-20kt right now
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