Global model runs discussion

[blp]

Well the CMC has a hurricane as well in the gulf as well. It has a similar solution ot the UKmet in the short run but then then runs it through the Florida straights and hits Lousiana as a hurricane. One thing I am notificing is the that the Ridge looks to be strong.

[somethingfunny]

The key thing that I'm noticing is that all of the models are predicting ideal conditions in the Gulf of Mexico as we approach the end of August. It may not be this particular system, there are a million chaotic interactions that have to take place before that can even get spinning, but the overarching message seems to be that the Gulf is open. Anything entering the Gulf, even old frontal boundaries or thunderstorm complexes, would have greater than normal potential in this setup.

[blp]

Nice closeup of last nights 00z NAVGEM run north of Hispaniola.

[stormlover2013]

folks things about to start to heat up!!!! gut feeling

[Blown Away]

If your hugging the EURO, it kinda develops the 2nd wave and moves it WNW towards the NE Caribbean and just east of Jacksonville in 10 days.

This is the 72 hour forecasted position.

[Hurricane_Luis]

Mid/Strong TS and then landfall in Texas.

[Tireman4]

Mid/Strong TS and then landfall in Texas.

Very interesting. Total LA LA land...but...interesting....Wxman 57 latches onto it, I will listen..LOL

[tolakram]

12Z GFS holding onto the Caribbean cruiser.



source: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/

[SFLcane]

12z Nogaps with a hurricane in the bahamas..

[cycloneye]

The model that was the first to sniff this was UKMET.Let's see what it has at the 12z run.

[northjaxpro]

NAVGEM 12Z out 180 hours shows 992 mb tropical cyclone approaching the central Bahamas.

[Blown Away]

12z GFS developing into TD/TS near east Caribbean and it appears if it did not interact/skirt Hispaniola/Jamaica/Cuba it would deepen farther east near 65W... GFS seeing decent conditions past 65W... CONUS/GOM landfall point is farther E on the 12z...

[SFLcane]

12z Canadian and FIM strengthening hurricane in Bahamas

[stormlover2013]

Pics please

[Comanche]

Send a slow moving TS to the Texas hill country, lakes are drying up.

[chaser1]

The model that was the first to sniff this was UKMET.Let's see what it has at the 12z run.

Agreed; when does the UK come out? Also, trying to remember but is the UK 12Z run limited to 48 hours?

[South Texas Storms]

The model that was the first to sniff this was UKMET.Let's see what it has at the 12z run.

Agreed; when does the UK come out? Also, trying to remember but is the UK 12Z run limited to 48 hours?

It comes out in a few hours. On this site it goes out to 5 days: http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

[gatorcane]

http://i62.tinypic.com/34rt9p3.jpg

Rest of GEM run has a very strong hurricane moving north up the west coast of Florida into a weakness over the SE United States in the long-range.

[Frank2]

I just noticed a Gulf system on the GFS, but not until Day 8 or 192 hours, which is still in fiction land, so perhaps it's just based on the current waves and climatology, because conditions are still very unfavorable, and per the next cold front to enter the SE by late this week the same pattern continues, but if it does form lets hope it's more of a NAVGEM solution and recurves east of Florida...

Frank

[Alyono]

I just noticed a Gulf system on the GFS, but not until Day 8 or 192 hours, which is still in fiction land, so perhaps it's just based on the current waves and climatology, because conditions are still very unfavorable, and per the next cold front to enter the SE by late this week the same pattern continues, but if it does form lets hope it's more of a NAVGEM solution and recurves east of Florida...

Frank

Since when is the GFS based upon climatology?

Today's models are dynamical