Global model runs discussion

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blp
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#7281 Postby blp » Tue Aug 19, 2014 7:31 am

Well the CMC has a hurricane as well in the gulf as well. It has a similar solution ot the UKmet in the short run but then then runs it through the Florida straights and hits Lousiana as a hurricane. One thing I am notificing is the that the Ridge looks to be strong.


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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#7282 Postby somethingfunny » Tue Aug 19, 2014 7:47 am

The key thing that I'm noticing is that all of the models are predicting ideal conditions in the Gulf of Mexico as we approach the end of August. It may not be this particular system, there are a million chaotic interactions that have to take place before that can even get spinning, but the overarching message seems to be that the Gulf is open. Anything entering the Gulf, even old frontal boundaries or thunderstorm complexes, would have greater than normal potential in this setup.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#7283 Postby blp » Tue Aug 19, 2014 8:12 am

Nice closeup of last nights 00z NAVGEM run north of Hispaniola.

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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#7284 Postby stormlover2013 » Tue Aug 19, 2014 8:19 am

folks things about to start to heat up!!!! gut feeling
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#7285 Postby Blown Away » Tue Aug 19, 2014 8:20 am

If your hugging the EURO, it kinda develops the 2nd wave and moves it WNW towards the NE Caribbean and just east of Jacksonville in 10 days.
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This is the 72 hour forecasted position.
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#7286 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Tue Aug 19, 2014 9:26 am

Mid/Strong TS and then landfall in Texas.

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#7287 Postby Tireman4 » Tue Aug 19, 2014 9:37 am

Hurricane_Luis wrote:Mid/Strong TS and then landfall in Texas.

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Very interesting. Total LA LA land...but...interesting....Wxman 57 latches onto it, I will listen..LOL
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#7288 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 19, 2014 11:13 am

12Z GFS holding onto the Caribbean cruiser.

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source: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#7289 Postby SFLcane » Tue Aug 19, 2014 11:26 am

12z Nogaps with a hurricane in the bahamas..
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#7290 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 19, 2014 11:36 am

The model that was the first to sniff this was UKMET.Let's see what it has at the 12z run.
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#7291 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Aug 19, 2014 11:39 am

NAVGEM 12Z out 180 hours shows 992 mb tropical cyclone approaching the central Bahamas.

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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#7292 Postby Blown Away » Tue Aug 19, 2014 11:42 am

12z GFS developing into TD/TS near east Caribbean and it appears if it did not interact/skirt Hispaniola/Jamaica/Cuba it would deepen farther east near 65W... GFS seeing decent conditions past 65W... CONUS/GOM landfall point is farther E on the 12z...
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#7293 Postby SFLcane » Tue Aug 19, 2014 11:47 am

12z Canadian and FIM strengthening hurricane in Bahamas
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stormlover2013

Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#7294 Postby stormlover2013 » Tue Aug 19, 2014 11:48 am

Pics please
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#7295 Postby Comanche » Tue Aug 19, 2014 11:50 am

Send a slow moving TS to the Texas hill country, lakes are drying up.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#7296 Postby chaser1 » Tue Aug 19, 2014 11:52 am

cycloneye wrote:The model that was the first to sniff this was UKMET.Let's see what it has at the 12z run.


Agreed; when does the UK come out? Also, trying to remember but is the UK 12Z run limited to 48 hours?
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#7297 Postby South Texas Storms » Tue Aug 19, 2014 11:59 am

chaser1 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:The model that was the first to sniff this was UKMET.Let's see what it has at the 12z run.


Agreed; when does the UK come out? Also, trying to remember but is the UK 12Z run limited to 48 hours?


It comes out in a few hours. On this site it goes out to 5 days: http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#7298 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 19, 2014 12:03 pm



Rest of GEM run has a very strong hurricane moving north up the west coast of Florida into a weakness over the SE United States in the long-range.
Last edited by gatorcane on Tue Aug 19, 2014 12:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#7299 Postby Frank2 » Tue Aug 19, 2014 12:06 pm

I just noticed a Gulf system on the GFS, but not until Day 8 or 192 hours, which is still in fiction land, so perhaps it's just based on the current waves and climatology, because conditions are still very unfavorable, and per the next cold front to enter the SE by late this week the same pattern continues, but if it does form lets hope it's more of a NAVGEM solution and recurves east of Florida...

Frank
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#7300 Postby Alyono » Tue Aug 19, 2014 12:17 pm

Frank2 wrote:I just noticed a Gulf system on the GFS, but not until Day 8 or 192 hours, which is still in fiction land, so perhaps it's just based on the current waves and climatology, because conditions are still very unfavorable, and per the next cold front to enter the SE by late this week the same pattern continues, but if it does form lets hope it's more of a NAVGEM solution and recurves east of Florida...

Frank


Since when is the GFS based upon climatology?

Today's models are dynamical
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