ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

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Alyono
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#141 Postby Alyono » Wed Aug 20, 2014 2:18 am

EC develops this once it moves into the GOM
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#142 Postby stormlover2013 » Wed Aug 20, 2014 3:39 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#143 Postby USTropics » Wed Aug 20, 2014 3:40 am

ECMWF showing possible CGOM landfall in the long range (00z ECMWF 168-240hrs animated below):

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#144 Postby USTropics » Wed Aug 20, 2014 4:36 am

Some of the early morning track model guidance:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#145 Postby Blown Away » Wed Aug 20, 2014 4:42 am

USTropics wrote:ECMWF showing possible CGOM landfall in the long range (00z ECMWF 168-240hrs animated below):

Image


Wow, ECMWF saying it will take 10 days to move from 50W to CGOM... This will be a very slow mover... Maybe lots of Caribbean land interaction delaying strengthening until the GOM...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#146 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 20, 2014 6:53 am

The UKMet is staying consistent.

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source: http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#147 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 20, 2014 6:56 am

6Z GFS has nothing or very weak until the end of the run.

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source: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#148 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 20, 2014 6:59 am

The euro actually has something by the end of the run, as shown above, and no longer develops a "super cane" in the EPAC.

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source: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
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#149 Postby gatorcane » Wed Aug 20, 2014 7:41 am

00Z GFS ensembles - most of them to the right (east) of the GFS operational:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#150 Postby SFLcane » Wed Aug 20, 2014 7:47 am

Recurve option still very much on table

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#151 Postby Frank2 » Wed Aug 20, 2014 8:05 am

Per the GFS the intense system in the EPAC if it verifies might have an influence on the outcome of any Gulf system...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#152 Postby SFLcane » Wed Aug 20, 2014 8:12 am

Northward shift on models updated 12z models. Land interaction

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#153 Postby gatorcane » Wed Aug 20, 2014 8:21 am

Experimental FIM-9 00Z, 144 hour forecast:
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Last edited by gatorcane on Wed Aug 20, 2014 8:21 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#154 Postby RL3AO » Wed Aug 20, 2014 8:21 am

Notice the system has been drifting westward and the models call for an immediate NW movement the next couple days.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#155 Postby N2FSU » Wed Aug 20, 2014 8:21 am

06Z GFS; 228 hr

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#156 Postby SFLcane » Wed Aug 20, 2014 8:24 am

IF it tracks that way fine line just ask Ernesto.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#157 Postby N2FSU » Wed Aug 20, 2014 8:26 am

00Z Euro; 240hr

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#158 Postby ronjon » Wed Aug 20, 2014 8:26 am

I noticed the 06z GFS has alot of land interaction with the system in the greater antilles - results in a weaker system until it gets into the FL straits. The GFS ensembles are flopping all over the place so far so I wouldn't put alot of weight on the Atlantic recurve solution - especially if the system remains weak in the caribbean which looks likely now.
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#159 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Wed Aug 20, 2014 8:27 am

Where are the reliable models initializing 96L. Cause I don't see on loop any low center? :roll:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#160 Postby SFLcane » Wed Aug 20, 2014 8:29 am

Coamps..

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