ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6961
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

#141 Postby Alyono » Wed Aug 20, 2014 2:18 am

EC develops this once it moves into the GOM
0 likes   
Top
stormlover2013

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#142 Postby stormlover2013 » Wed Aug 20, 2014 3:39 am

Images
0 likes   
Top
USTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2636
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2007 3:45 am
Location: Florida State University

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#143 Postby USTropics » Wed Aug 20, 2014 3:40 am

ECMWF showing possible CGOM landfall in the long range (00z ECMWF 168-240hrs animated below):

Image
0 likes   
Top
USTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2636
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2007 3:45 am
Location: Florida State University

#144 Postby USTropics » Wed Aug 20, 2014 4:36 am

Some of the early morning track model guidance:

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10140
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#145 Postby Blown Away » Wed Aug 20, 2014 4:42 am

USTropics wrote:ECMWF showing possible CGOM landfall in the long range (00z ECMWF 168-240hrs animated below):

Image


Wow, ECMWF saying it will take 10 days to move from 50W to CGOM... This will be a very slow mover... Maybe lots of Caribbean land interaction delaying strengthening until the GOM...
0 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Top
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 19990
Age: 61
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#146 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 20, 2014 6:53 am

The UKMet is staying consistent.

Image

source: http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 19990
Age: 61
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#147 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 20, 2014 6:56 am

6Z GFS has nothing or very weak until the end of the run.

Image

Image

Image

source: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 19990
Age: 61
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#148 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 20, 2014 6:59 am

The euro actually has something by the end of the run, as shown above, and no longer develops a "super cane" in the EPAC.

Image

source: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23689
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#149 Postby gatorcane » Wed Aug 20, 2014 7:41 am

00Z GFS ensembles - most of them to the right (east) of the GFS operational:
Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10162
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#150 Postby SFLcane » Wed Aug 20, 2014 7:47 am

Recurve option still very much on table

Image
0 likes   
Top
Frank2
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4061
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2005 12:47 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#151 Postby Frank2 » Wed Aug 20, 2014 8:05 am

Per the GFS the intense system in the EPAC if it verifies might have an influence on the outcome of any Gulf system...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10162
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#152 Postby SFLcane » Wed Aug 20, 2014 8:12 am

Northward shift on models updated 12z models. Land interaction

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23689
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#153 Postby gatorcane » Wed Aug 20, 2014 8:21 am

Experimental FIM-9 00Z, 144 hour forecast:
Image
Last edited by gatorcane on Wed Aug 20, 2014 8:21 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

#154 Postby RL3AO » Wed Aug 20, 2014 8:21 am

Notice the system has been drifting westward and the models call for an immediate NW movement the next couple days.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
N2FSU
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1062
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: Tallahassee, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#155 Postby N2FSU » Wed Aug 20, 2014 8:21 am

06Z GFS; 228 hr

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10162
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#156 Postby SFLcane » Wed Aug 20, 2014 8:24 am

IF it tracks that way fine line just ask Ernesto.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
N2FSU
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1062
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: Tallahassee, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#157 Postby N2FSU » Wed Aug 20, 2014 8:26 am

00Z Euro; 240hr

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ronjon
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4811
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:17 pm
Location: Hernando Beach, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#158 Postby ronjon » Wed Aug 20, 2014 8:26 am

I noticed the 06z GFS has alot of land interaction with the system in the greater antilles - results in a weaker system until it gets into the FL straits. The GFS ensembles are flopping all over the place so far so I wouldn't put alot of weight on the Atlantic recurve solution - especially if the system remains weak in the caribbean which looks likely now.
0 likes   
Top
HURRICANELONNY
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1383
Joined: Wed May 07, 2003 6:48 am
Location: HOLLYWOOD.FL

#159 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Wed Aug 20, 2014 8:27 am

Where are the reliable models initializing 96L. Cause I don't see on loop any low center? :roll:
0 likes   
hurricanelonny
Top
User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10162
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#160 Postby SFLcane » Wed Aug 20, 2014 8:29 am

Coamps..

Image
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2014”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 145 guests