ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[deltadog03]

[Kingarabian]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.GIF

Looks like it has to get going soon if it wants to be picked up.

[PTrackerLA]

Hard to see how this doesn't pass south of PR given the steering flow but I guess we'll see. Looks like a strong burst of convection right near the "center" as the sun sets.

[tropicwatch]

Well the SAL has diminished significantly, now the shear in front of it needs to subside.

[Sanibel]

Slightly better organization and burst over the center.

[cycloneye]

My eyes see 12.7N-52.5W.

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[northjaxpro]

My eyes see 12.7N-52.5W.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

That's about right. It is definitely gaining forward speed in my view.

[Hurricane Andrew]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

IMO, would go with 70/90 at 8pm, and if organization continues, 80/90 tomorrow morning.

[TheStormExpert]

Nice very informative new video discussion by Tropical Tidbits Levi Cowan. Mentions why we should not put too much weight on the models just yet until 96L consolidates and forms.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/2014/08/20/invest-96l-real-meteorology-versus-hype-and-public-perception/

[Nimbus]

Hard to see how this doesn't pass south of PR given the steering flow but I guess we'll see. Looks like a strong burst of convection right near the "center" as the sun sets.

Once it detaches from the monsoon trough and spins up it could gain latitude fairly quickly. A slow journey over Hispaniola and the spine of Cuba as a weakening tropical storm is probably too much to hope for. Looks like the TUTT that was north of Puerto Rico is receding west meaning a more favorable environment for development could be ahead.

There have been some low clouds dipping south ahead of the circulation center looks like it might cross 55W near 13N.

[SFLcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

IMO, would go with 70/90 at 8pm, and if organization continues, 80/90 tomorrow morning.

Na... system has changed little in organization.

[TheStormExpert]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

IMO, would go with 70/90 at 8pm, and if organization continues, 80/90 tomorrow morning.

Na... system has changed little in organization.

50/70% @ 8pm seems more likely.

[Evil Jeremy]

It's been a while since Florida has seen a legit threat. Looking forward to the 8pm TWO, and the start of a week of sleepless nights.

[northjaxpro]

For really the first time I am seeing convection starting to funnel in toward the developing COC on satellite imagery. If you observe closely, to my eyes, you are beginning to see some curvature to the structure of 96L now. I think this system is really beginning to get its act together now. Just an observation.

-____________________

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Cyclenall]

Once it detaches from the monsoon trough and spins up it could gain latitude fairly quickly. A slow journey over Hispaniola and the spine of Cuba as a weakening tropical storm is probably too much to hope for. Looks like the TUTT that was north of Puerto Rico is receding west meaning a more favorable environment for development could be ahead.

I'm not sure why that outcome would be "hoped for" as that's all we've seen over the last 5 years of this type of track nonsense . Not only does it bring heavy rains for regions that can't handle disasters, but makes what should be a very interesting track turn into a snooze and ends up being more boring than most Epac systems. Since its 2014, fascinating events will likely be absent.

[cycloneye]

Nice very informative new video discussion by Tropical Tidbits Levi Cowan. Mentions why we should not put too much weight on the models just yet until 96L consolidates and forms.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/2014/08/20/invest-96l-real-meteorology-versus-hype-and-public-perception/

He explains in a very simple way all the factors.A great one.

[HurricaneTracker2031]

96L beginning to get its act together and this may be a legit FLA threat and everyone should monitor this system closely...



Synopsis for 96L and other systems: http://goo.gl/9WK2bq


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[redneckweather]

96L beginning to get its act together and this may be a legit FLA threat and everyone should monitor this system closely...




Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

And this may be a legit nothing. Dude, settle down. Let's get a LEGIT COC before you start evacuating the entire state of Florida.

[Evil Jeremy]

96L beginning to get its act together and this may be a legit FLA threat and everyone should monitor this system closely...




Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

And this may be a legit nothing. Dude, settle down. Let's get a LEGIT COC before you start evacuating the entire state of Florida.

Nothing HurricaneTracker2031 said was out of line. This is getting it's act together, it may be a Florida threat, and everyone should pay attention. All 3 of those statements are valid.

[Janie2006]

I'm waiting for 96L to get its act together before I start overly concerning myself with model output. The larger synoptic trends are interesting, but any attempt at long range prognostication is really a case of tilting at those infamous windmills. Be patient, grasshopper.