ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23689
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re:

#301 Postby gatorcane » Wed Aug 20, 2014 5:08 pm

northjaxpro wrote::uarrow:

If this 18Z GFS 96 hr run verifies, feeling the weakness as it moves into the Bahamas.


Yes it is feeling the weakness and looks like it will pass east of Florida on this run...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Jevo
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1729
Age: 47
Joined: Tue Aug 03, 2004 8:45 pm
Location: The Flemish Cap
Contact:
Contact Jevo

#302 Postby Jevo » Wed Aug 20, 2014 5:10 pm

18z GFS +120

Image
0 likes   
Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
Top
User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10162
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#303 Postby SFLcane » Wed Aug 20, 2014 5:12 pm

barely a TS passing east of sfl.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Bocadude85
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2991
Age: 38
Joined: Mon Apr 18, 2005 2:20 pm
Location: Honolulu,Hi

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#304 Postby Bocadude85 » Wed Aug 20, 2014 5:15 pm

Not really a huge difference between the 12z and 18z GFS. Both have 96L near Andros Island in 5 days.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Jevo
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1729
Age: 47
Joined: Tue Aug 03, 2004 8:45 pm
Location: The Flemish Cap
Contact:
Contact Jevo

#305 Postby Jevo » Wed Aug 20, 2014 5:15 pm

18z GFS +138 - Slowing Down?

Image
Last edited by Jevo on Wed Aug 20, 2014 5:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
Top
User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23689
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#306 Postby gatorcane » Wed Aug 20, 2014 5:16 pm

Approaching hurricane status as it moves slowly NW through the Bahamas, just offshore SE Florida
Last edited by gatorcane on Wed Aug 20, 2014 5:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22951
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#307 Postby wxman57 » Wed Aug 20, 2014 5:18 pm

Bocadude85 wrote:Not really a huge difference between the 12z and 18z GFS. Both have 96L near Andros Island in 5 days.


Looks fairly significant, to me. 18Z GFS may have it missing Florida to the east. May move it into the Carolinas.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10162
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#308 Postby SFLcane » Wed Aug 20, 2014 5:19 pm

Image

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23689
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#309 Postby gatorcane » Wed Aug 20, 2014 5:20 pm

Just offshore SE Florida moving slowly north and intensifying - too close for comfort on this run though it did shift east from the 12Z...

Image
Last edited by gatorcane on Wed Aug 20, 2014 5:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Jevo
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1729
Age: 47
Joined: Tue Aug 03, 2004 8:45 pm
Location: The Flemish Cap
Contact:
Contact Jevo

#310 Postby Jevo » Wed Aug 20, 2014 5:21 pm

18z GFS +150

Image

18z GFS +156

Image
Last edited by Jevo on Wed Aug 20, 2014 5:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
Top
User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#311 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Aug 20, 2014 5:21 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Bocadude85 wrote:Not really a huge difference between the 12z and 18z GFS. Both have 96L near Andros Island in 5 days.


Looks fairly significant, to me. 18Z GFS may have it missing Florida to the east. May move it into the Carolinas.


Unless the trough lifts out and ridging reestablished itself ala Jeanne scenario, then this would head up toward the Carolinas if this run xcame to fruition.
0 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
Top
User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10162
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#312 Postby SFLcane » Wed Aug 20, 2014 5:22 pm

real close...

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

#313 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Aug 20, 2014 5:23 pm

GFS intensifies the storm just offshore the Florida East Coast in the NW Bahamas on these latest runs.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Wed Aug 20, 2014 5:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
Top
User avatar
Jevo
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1729
Age: 47
Joined: Tue Aug 03, 2004 8:45 pm
Location: The Flemish Cap
Contact:
Contact Jevo

#314 Postby Jevo » Wed Aug 20, 2014 5:24 pm

18z GFS +162

Image
0 likes   
Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
Top
User avatar
Bocadude85
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2991
Age: 38
Joined: Mon Apr 18, 2005 2:20 pm
Location: Honolulu,Hi

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#315 Postby Bocadude85 » Wed Aug 20, 2014 5:24 pm

SFLcane wrote:real close...

Image



Yes about 150miles offshore
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Hurricane Andrew
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1891
Age: 26
Joined: Sun May 23, 2010 2:53 pm
Location: KS

#316 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Wed Aug 20, 2014 5:25 pm

I see many Irene comments in our future...
0 likes   

The Enthusiast
NREMT-AEMT, WX nerd

Irene '11, Sandy '12, Irma '17 (SAR)

"Hard to think we were born to live this way..." -Wage War
Top
User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10162
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#317 Postby SFLcane » Wed Aug 20, 2014 5:25 pm

david type track
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Jevo
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1729
Age: 47
Joined: Tue Aug 03, 2004 8:45 pm
Location: The Flemish Cap
Contact:
Contact Jevo

#318 Postby Jevo » Wed Aug 20, 2014 5:26 pm

18z GFS +168 - Cocoa Beach?

Image
0 likes   
Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
Top
User avatar
Bocadude85
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2991
Age: 38
Joined: Mon Apr 18, 2005 2:20 pm
Location: Honolulu,Hi

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#319 Postby Bocadude85 » Wed Aug 20, 2014 5:27 pm

SFLcane wrote:david type track


I was just about to say this track is very similar to David in 79
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
AdamFirst
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2491
Age: 36
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:54 am
Location: Port Saint Lucie, FL

#320 Postby AdamFirst » Wed Aug 20, 2014 5:27 pm

Not exactly fishing on this run, is it...
0 likes   
Dolphins Marlins Canes Golden Panthers HEAT
Andrew 1992 - Irene 1999 - Frances 2004 - Jeanne 2004 - Wilma 2005 - Fay 2008 - Isaac 2012 - Matthew 2016 - Irma 2017 - Dorian 2019 - Ian 2022 - Nicole 2022 - Milton 2024
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2014”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 69 guests