ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

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gatorcane
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#301 Postby gatorcane » Wed Aug 20, 2014 5:08 pm

northjaxpro wrote::uarrow:

If this 18Z GFS 96 hr run verifies, feeling the weakness as it moves into the Bahamas.


Yes it is feeling the weakness and looks like it will pass east of Florida on this run...
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#302 Postby Jevo » Wed Aug 20, 2014 5:10 pm

18z GFS +120

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#303 Postby SFLcane » Wed Aug 20, 2014 5:12 pm

barely a TS passing east of sfl.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#304 Postby Bocadude85 » Wed Aug 20, 2014 5:15 pm

Not really a huge difference between the 12z and 18z GFS. Both have 96L near Andros Island in 5 days.
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#305 Postby Jevo » Wed Aug 20, 2014 5:15 pm

18z GFS +138 - Slowing Down?

Image
Last edited by Jevo on Wed Aug 20, 2014 5:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#306 Postby gatorcane » Wed Aug 20, 2014 5:16 pm

Approaching hurricane status as it moves slowly NW through the Bahamas, just offshore SE Florida
Last edited by gatorcane on Wed Aug 20, 2014 5:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#307 Postby wxman57 » Wed Aug 20, 2014 5:18 pm

Bocadude85 wrote:Not really a huge difference between the 12z and 18z GFS. Both have 96L near Andros Island in 5 days.


Looks fairly significant, to me. 18Z GFS may have it missing Florida to the east. May move it into the Carolinas.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#308 Postby SFLcane » Wed Aug 20, 2014 5:19 pm

Image

Image
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#309 Postby gatorcane » Wed Aug 20, 2014 5:20 pm

Just offshore SE Florida moving slowly north and intensifying - too close for comfort on this run though it did shift east from the 12Z...

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Last edited by gatorcane on Wed Aug 20, 2014 5:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#310 Postby Jevo » Wed Aug 20, 2014 5:21 pm

18z GFS +150

Image

18z GFS +156

Image
Last edited by Jevo on Wed Aug 20, 2014 5:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#311 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Aug 20, 2014 5:21 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Bocadude85 wrote:Not really a huge difference between the 12z and 18z GFS. Both have 96L near Andros Island in 5 days.


Looks fairly significant, to me. 18Z GFS may have it missing Florida to the east. May move it into the Carolinas.


Unless the trough lifts out and ridging reestablished itself ala Jeanne scenario, then this would head up toward the Carolinas if this run xcame to fruition.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#312 Postby SFLcane » Wed Aug 20, 2014 5:22 pm

real close...

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#313 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Aug 20, 2014 5:23 pm

GFS intensifies the storm just offshore the Florida East Coast in the NW Bahamas on these latest runs.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Wed Aug 20, 2014 5:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#314 Postby Jevo » Wed Aug 20, 2014 5:24 pm

18z GFS +162

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#315 Postby Bocadude85 » Wed Aug 20, 2014 5:24 pm

SFLcane wrote:real close...

Image



Yes about 150miles offshore
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#316 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Wed Aug 20, 2014 5:25 pm

I see many Irene comments in our future...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#317 Postby SFLcane » Wed Aug 20, 2014 5:25 pm

david type track
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#318 Postby Jevo » Wed Aug 20, 2014 5:26 pm

18z GFS +168 - Cocoa Beach?

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#319 Postby Bocadude85 » Wed Aug 20, 2014 5:27 pm

SFLcane wrote:david type track


I was just about to say this track is very similar to David in 79
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#320 Postby AdamFirst » Wed Aug 20, 2014 5:27 pm

Not exactly fishing on this run, is it...
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