ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

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gatorcane
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#721 Postby gatorcane » Thu Aug 21, 2014 7:48 pm

The HWRF is certainly interesting, but I can't remember the last time the ECMWF/GFS consensus was wrong, both of them show it staying east of Florida and staying relatively weak.

It might be that both these reliable models are predicting mid-level dry air over the SW Atlantic and Bahamas perhaps as the upper-level environment looks great.

The NAVGEM is consistently recurving run after run and is close to the GFS/ECMWF consensus:
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Last edited by gatorcane on Thu Aug 21, 2014 7:57 pm, edited 5 times in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#722 Postby floridasun78 » Thu Aug 21, 2014 7:52 pm

Bocadude85 wrote:
floridasun78 wrote:
tolakram wrote:Final frame for this view.

Image

that look like andrew :( :(


I wouldn't worry to much, the chances of this coming to fruition are low. Let's see if the HWRF continues to show this scenario tomorrow night, if so we may need to start to worry.

i see new run of HWRF coming out let see if show same .but i notice HWRF only one showing hurr coming to south fl. we been lucky past few years let hope dont go alway we not seen major hurr alot years hit south fl
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Re: Re:

#723 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Aug 21, 2014 7:56 pm

TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:
CalmBeforeStorm wrote:Keep in mind that the HWRF was by far the most accurate model at 5 days last year.

Yep, even beating out the official forecast and the ECMWF. Keep in mind that it did well with Arthur as well.

That said, every storm is a different test for computer models. Just because it was right before doesn't mean it will be now.

http://icons.wxug.com/hurricane/2014/mo ... c-2013.png

I keep hearing how well it did with Arthur, but how well did it perform with Bertha?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#724 Postby blp » Thu Aug 21, 2014 8:01 pm

There is a bigger spread in the GFS ensembles. Lots of uncertainty still present.

18z
Image

12z
Image
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Re:

#725 Postby RL3AO » Thu Aug 21, 2014 8:06 pm

CalmBeforeStorm wrote:Keep in mind that the HWRF was by far the most accurate model at 5 days last year.

Be careful. Only 10 forecasts verified at 120 hours in the Atlantic. Small sample size. HWRF did terrible in the EPAC
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Re:

#726 Postby blp » Thu Aug 21, 2014 8:15 pm

gatorcane wrote:The HWRF is certainly interesting, but I can't remember the last time the ECMWF/GFS consensus was wrong, both of them show it staying east of Florida and staying relatively weak.

It might be that both these reliable models are predicting mid-level dry air over the SW Atlantic and Bahamas perhaps as the upper-level environment looks great.

The NAVGEM is consistently recurving run after run and is close to the GFS/ECMWF consensus:
http://i61.tinypic.com/34eb3ar.jpg[/img]


Gator you are right. I also cannot remember the last time both the GFS and Euro had consistent runs showing the same outcome and not verify. This would something new.
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Re: Re:

#727 Postby Bocadude85 » Thu Aug 21, 2014 8:20 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:
CalmBeforeStorm wrote:Keep in mind that the HWRF was by far the most accurate model at 5 days last year.

Yep, even beating out the official forecast and the ECMWF. Keep in mind that it did well with Arthur as well.

That said, every storm is a different test for computer models. Just because it was right before doesn't mean it will be now.

http://icons.wxug.com/hurricane/2014/mo ... c-2013.png

I keep hearing how well it did with Arthur, but how well did it perform with Bertha?


I just looked through Berthas archived model thread and it appears the HWRF did fairly well. The GFS was consistently to far to the right with Bertha. HWRF stuck to its guns showing a recurve near the Bahamas.
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Re: Re:

#728 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Aug 21, 2014 8:23 pm

Bocadude85 wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:
TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:Yep, even beating out the official forecast and the ECMWF. Keep in mind that it did well with Arthur as well.

That said, every storm is a different test for computer models. Just because it was right before doesn't mean it will be now.

http://icons.wxug.com/hurricane/2014/mo ... c-2013.png

I keep hearing how well it did with Arthur, but how well did it perform with Bertha?


I just looked through Berthas archived model thread and it appears the HWRF did fairly well. The GFS was consistently to far to the right with Bertha. HWRF stuck to its guns showing a recurve near the Bahamas.


It also did a great job in Amanda's and Cristina's RI.
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Re: Re:

#729 Postby NDG » Thu Aug 21, 2014 8:28 pm

Bocadude85 wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:
TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:Yep, even beating out the official forecast and the ECMWF. Keep in mind that it did well with Arthur as well.

That said, every storm is a different test for computer models. Just because it was right before doesn't mean it will be now.

http://icons.wxug.com/hurricane/2014/mo ... c-2013.png

I keep hearing how well it did with Arthur, but how well did it perform with Bertha?


I just looked through Berthas archived model thread and it appears the HWRF did fairly well. The GFS was consistently to far to the right with Bertha. HWRF stuck to its guns showing a recurve near the Bahamas.


Yeap, I agree, I also looked at Bertha's model archives at tropicalatlantic.com, the HWRF nailed her track of passing south of PR and not north like many models had it and then tracking in between the Carolinas and Bermuda which at one point many models had it impacting Bermuda.
But, that was a very easy track to forecast by the models overall, IMO. There was trough pattern across the eastern inland US, it had to recurve. This time the question is if the trough digging down offshore the NE US will be deep enough to pull 96L out to sea with it, different scenario.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#730 Postby Blown Away » Thu Aug 21, 2014 8:34 pm

Image
00z...

Image
NHC graphic...
Last edited by Blown Away on Thu Aug 21, 2014 8:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#731 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Thu Aug 21, 2014 8:37 pm

Blown Away wrote:http://i57.tinypic.com/2ngtqar.jpg
00z...

Quite a few are now showing, instead of a regular recurve, a general N track with a NW bend at the end.

Ridge re-building is evident there. Question is, where does it go after that?


*edited by sg to remove IMG tags from quote
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#732 Postby floridasun78 » Thu Aug 21, 2014 8:43 pm

so models want make this fish
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#733 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Aug 21, 2014 8:44 pm

floridasun78 wrote:so models want make this fish


I wouldn't quite say that as a lot of those models bend back to the NNW which wouldn't make it a fish if it hits the Carolinas or the Northeast

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#734 Postby Steve » Thu Aug 21, 2014 8:46 pm

Also slightly interesting in the ensembles plot is the clustering of solutions in the SE Gulf. Several other models show isobars crossing the south/south central Gulf though not 96L. I'm wondering if a piece of energy (albeit mostly insignificant) doesn't show up as at least an area of disturbed weather early next week. There isn't much on the map, but several models do hint at something minor. Just something to watch for if 96L were to stay East of Florida.

Also of note even though it's now mostly a dog model, is the navgem/Nogaps which brings 96L north looping or stalling back near the orange people (and everyone else too) off the NJ shoreline. I'm not saying that is 100% impossible since I didn't look at its upper air modeling. But it hooks back SW (almost looks like a nor'easter) while surface low pressure passes to its north. That looks backwards, but I don't pay very much attention to that model.
Last edited by Steve on Thu Aug 21, 2014 9:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#735 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 21, 2014 8:48 pm

TVCN going with the euro like zig zag route.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#736 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Thu Aug 21, 2014 8:49 pm

tolakram wrote:TVCN going with the euro like zig zag route.

Isn't the TVCN just the consensus model? The average?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#737 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 21, 2014 8:51 pm

Hurricane Andrew wrote:
tolakram wrote:TVCN going with the euro like zig zag route.

Isn't the TVCN just the consensus model? The average?


It's a weighted average, weighted the way they want to weight it.

Average of at least 2 of GHMI, EGRI, NGPI, HWFI, GFSI, GFNI, EMXI

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#738 Postby floridasun78 » Thu Aug 21, 2014 8:52 pm

tolakram wrote:TVCN going with the euro like zig zag route.

what was before?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#739 Postby Bocadude85 » Thu Aug 21, 2014 8:54 pm

Looking at the 0z early model guidance I would have to think the HWRF will cave and show a recurve on its 0z run.
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#740 Postby gatorcane » Thu Aug 21, 2014 8:57 pm

Another look at the 00Z models...

Image
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