Bocadude85 wrote:TheStormExpert wrote:TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:Yep, even beating out the official forecast and the ECMWF. Keep in mind that it did well with Arthur as well.
That said, every storm is a different test for computer models. Just because it was right before doesn't mean it will be now.
http://icons.wxug.com/hurricane/2014/mo ... c-2013.png
I keep hearing how well it did with Arthur, but how well did it perform with Bertha?
I just looked through Berthas archived model thread and it appears the HWRF did fairly well. The GFS was consistently to far to the right with Bertha. HWRF stuck to its guns showing a recurve near the Bahamas.
Yeap, I agree, I also looked at Bertha's model archives at tropicalatlantic.com, the HWRF nailed her track of passing south of PR and not north like many models had it and then tracking in between the Carolinas and Bermuda which at one point many models had it impacting Bermuda.
But, that was a very easy track to forecast by the models overall, IMO. There was trough pattern across the eastern inland US, it had to recurve. This time the question is if the trough digging down offshore the NE US will be deep enough to pull 96L out to sea with it, different scenario.