ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

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#781 Postby USTropics » Thu Aug 21, 2014 11:08 pm

Compared to the 18z GFS run, 96L is more to the north and east by 120 hours.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#782 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 21, 2014 11:11 pm

144h and still out there.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#783 Postby Bocadude85 » Thu Aug 21, 2014 11:13 pm

Interesting run of the GFS... Will be interesting to see what the HWRF shows, will it join the GFS or keep with the Florida threat?
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#784 Postby Alyono » Thu Aug 21, 2014 11:13 pm

I'd like to see a bit larger of a weakness and not to the NE to be convinced this will turn. Yes, the turn is the most likely scenario. However, that weakness is not giving me much confidence
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#785 Postby blp » Thu Aug 21, 2014 11:16 pm

Problem is without a clear center right now to initialize on these runs these subltle changes make a big difference. I think if the northern vort takes over at that speed it will be past 75w before it feels the weakness and then I think you get the bend back. If it has to go south then through DR and weakens it will not move fast enough to avoild that weakness around 74-75w.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#786 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Thu Aug 21, 2014 11:16 pm

Bocadude85 wrote:Interesting run of the GFS... Will be interesting to see what the HWRF shows, will it join the GFS or keep with the Florida threat?


When does the HWRF run?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#787 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 21, 2014 11:18 pm

I just can't believe 7 days will pass and this storm will still be out there.

162h

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#788 Postby Alyono » Thu Aug 21, 2014 11:19 pm

blp wrote:Problem is without a clear center right now to initialize on these runs these subltle changes make a big difference. I think if the northern vort takes over at that speed it will be past 75w before it feels the weakness and then I think you get the bend back. If it has to go south then through DR and weakens it will not move fast enough to avoild that weakness around 74-75w.



please, lets stop this no clear center. These are dynamical models. They can form a center. Furthermore, the aircraft found a center
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#789 Postby USTropics » Thu Aug 21, 2014 11:19 pm

A very small sample size, but here are how 4 of the models (GFDL, HWRF, TVCN, CMC) have performed so far regarding track forecast position error this year:

Arthur
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Bertha
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#790 Postby South Texas Storms » Thu Aug 21, 2014 11:21 pm

0z GFS shows this hitting Bermuda as a TS next week.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#791 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 21, 2014 11:22 pm

174h

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Re:

#792 Postby bamajammer4eva » Thu Aug 21, 2014 11:24 pm

USTropics wrote:A very small sample size, but here are how 4 of the models (GFDL, HWRF, TVCN, CMC) have performed so far regarding track forecast position error this year:

Arthur
[img]http://i.imgur.com/JCFGJuw.jpg

Bertha
[img]http://i.imgur.com/bZodUs9.jpg


So TVCN and HWRF are neck and neck so far this year @ day 5
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#793 Postby Ntxw » Thu Aug 21, 2014 11:24 pm

tolakram wrote:I just can't believe 7 days will pass and this storm will still be out there.

162h

http://imageshack.com/a/img540/9620/kPWvCR.gif


It can if it gets stuck and doesn't hook up with the first trof completely. We actually have a -NAO ongoing and may continue so therefore so you're kind of in limbo with an exiting trof and building ridge that's not quite established.
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Re: Re:

#794 Postby USTropics » Thu Aug 21, 2014 11:26 pm

bamajammer4eva wrote:
USTropics wrote:A very small sample size, but here are how 4 of the models (GFDL, HWRF, TVCN, CMC) have performed so far regarding track forecast position error this year:

Arthur
[img]http://i.imgur.com/JCFGJuw.jpg

Bertha
[img]http://i.imgur.com/bZodUs9.jpg


So TVCN and HWRF are neck and neck so far this year @ day 5


As far as being least accurate in regards to actual position of the system versus forecasted position of the system. The GFDL was the best performing of the 4 models at day 5.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#795 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Thu Aug 21, 2014 11:28 pm

Ntxw wrote:
tolakram wrote:I just can't believe 7 days will pass and this storm will still be out there.

162h

http://imageshack.com/a/img540/9620/kPWvCR.gif


It can if it gets stuck and doesn't hook up with the first trof. We actually have a -NAO ongoing and may continue so therefore so you're kind of in limbo with an exiting trof and building ridge that's not quite established.


From what some posters have been posting for awhile now, it's how all these early strong fronts have been pushing south and east so early this year. If that is the case why would it sit out there for such a long period of time not really moving.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#796 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 21, 2014 11:29 pm

192h

Image

I'm done for the night. Will be interesting to see Euro and HWRF runs in the morning, that's for sure.
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Re: Re:

#797 Postby bamajammer4eva » Thu Aug 21, 2014 11:30 pm

USTropics wrote:
bamajammer4eva wrote:
USTropics wrote:A very small sample size, but here are how 4 of the models (GFDL, HWRF, TVCN, CMC) have performed so far regarding track forecast position error this year:

Arthur
[img]http://i.imgur.com/JCFGJuw.jpg

Bertha
[img]http://i.imgur.com/bZodUs9.jpg


So TVCN and HWRF are neck and neck so far this year @ day 5


As far as being least accurate in regards to actual position of the system versus forecasted position of the system. The GFDL was the best performing of the 4 models at day 5.


Wow read it wrong. Did not know GFDL was that good.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#798 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Thu Aug 21, 2014 11:31 pm

tolakram wrote:192h

Image

I'm done for the night. Will be interesting to see Euro and HWRF runs in the morning, that's for sure.


Thank you so much for posting the run.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#799 Postby Ntxw » Thu Aug 21, 2014 11:34 pm

Miami Storm Tracker wrote:From what some posters have been posting for awhile now, it's how all these early strong fronts have been pushing south and east so early this year. If that is the case why would it sit out there for such a long period of time not really moving.


Well that's the thing. IF it misses the first trough, ridging will kind of keep slow moving maybe even retrograde but not strong enough to push it west to the coast before the next trough comes (think -NAO, sandy had a bigger negative value of this index that pushed her even further west). At least that's what the globals are showing.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#800 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Thu Aug 21, 2014 11:38 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Miami Storm Tracker wrote:From what some posters have been posting for awhile now, it's how all these early strong fronts have been pushing south and east so early this year. If that is the case why would it sit out there for such a long period of time not really moving.


Well that's the thing. IF it misses the first trough, ridging will kind of keep slow moving maybe even retrograde but not strong enough to push it west to the coast before the next trough comes (think -NAO, sandy had a bigger negative value of this index that pushed her even further west). At least that's what the globals are showing.


Thanks for the explanation.
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