ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

[USTropics]

Compared to the 18z GFS run, 96L is more to the north and east by 120 hours.

[tolakram]

144h and still out there.

[Bocadude85]

Interesting run of the GFS... Will be interesting to see what the HWRF shows, will it join the GFS or keep with the Florida threat?

[Alyono]

I'd like to see a bit larger of a weakness and not to the NE to be convinced this will turn. Yes, the turn is the most likely scenario. However, that weakness is not giving me much confidence

[blp]

Problem is without a clear center right now to initialize on these runs these subltle changes make a big difference. I think if the northern vort takes over at that speed it will be past 75w before it feels the weakness and then I think you get the bend back. If it has to go south then through DR and weakens it will not move fast enough to avoild that weakness around 74-75w.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Interesting run of the GFS... Will be interesting to see what the HWRF shows, will it join the GFS or keep with the Florida threat?

When does the HWRF run?

[tolakram]

I just can't believe 7 days will pass and this storm will still be out there.

162h

[Alyono]

Problem is without a clear center right now to initialize on these runs these subltle changes make a big difference. I think if the northern vort takes over at that speed it will be past 75w before it feels the weakness and then I think you get the bend back. If it has to go south then through DR and weakens it will not move fast enough to avoild that weakness around 74-75w.

please, lets stop this no clear center. These are dynamical models. They can form a center. Furthermore, the aircraft found a center

[USTropics]

A very small sample size, but here are how 4 of the models (GFDL, HWRF, TVCN, CMC) have performed so far regarding track forecast position error this year:

Arthur


Bertha

[South Texas Storms]

0z GFS shows this hitting Bermuda as a TS next week.

[tolakram]

174h

[bamajammer4eva]

A very small sample size, but here are how 4 of the models (GFDL, HWRF, TVCN, CMC) have performed so far regarding track forecast position error this year:

Arthur
[img]http://i.imgur.com/JCFGJuw.jpg

Bertha
[img]http://i.imgur.com/bZodUs9.jpg

So TVCN and HWRF are neck and neck so far this year @ day 5

[Ntxw]

I just can't believe 7 days will pass and this storm will still be out there.

162h

http://imageshack.com/a/img540/9620/kPWvCR.gif

It can if it gets stuck and doesn't hook up with the first trof completely. We actually have a -NAO ongoing and may continue so therefore so you're kind of in limbo with an exiting trof and building ridge that's not quite established.

[USTropics]

A very small sample size, but here are how 4 of the models (GFDL, HWRF, TVCN, CMC) have performed so far regarding track forecast position error this year:

Arthur
[img]http://i.imgur.com/JCFGJuw.jpg

Bertha
[img]http://i.imgur.com/bZodUs9.jpg

So TVCN and HWRF are neck and neck so far this year @ day 5

As far as being least accurate in regards to actual position of the system versus forecasted position of the system. The GFDL was the best performing of the 4 models at day 5.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

I just can't believe 7 days will pass and this storm will still be out there.

162h

http://imageshack.com/a/img540/9620/kPWvCR.gif

It can if it gets stuck and doesn't hook up with the first trof. We actually have a -NAO ongoing and may continue so therefore so you're kind of in limbo with an exiting trof and building ridge that's not quite established.

From what some posters have been posting for awhile now, it's how all these early strong fronts have been pushing south and east so early this year. If that is the case why would it sit out there for such a long period of time not really moving.

[tolakram]

192h



I'm done for the night. Will be interesting to see Euro and HWRF runs in the morning, that's for sure.

[bamajammer4eva]

A very small sample size, but here are how 4 of the models (GFDL, HWRF, TVCN, CMC) have performed so far regarding track forecast position error this year:

Arthur
[img]http://i.imgur.com/JCFGJuw.jpg

Bertha
[img]http://i.imgur.com/bZodUs9.jpg

So TVCN and HWRF are neck and neck so far this year @ day 5

As far as being least accurate in regards to actual position of the system versus forecasted position of the system. The GFDL was the best performing of the 4 models at day 5.

Wow read it wrong. Did not know GFDL was that good.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

192h



I'm done for the night. Will be interesting to see Euro and HWRF runs in the morning, that's for sure.

Thank you so much for posting the run.

[Ntxw]

From what some posters have been posting for awhile now, it's how all these early strong fronts have been pushing south and east so early this year. If that is the case why would it sit out there for such a long period of time not really moving.

Well that's the thing. IF it misses the first trough, ridging will kind of keep slow moving maybe even retrograde but not strong enough to push it west to the coast before the next trough comes (think -NAO, sandy had a bigger negative value of this index that pushed her even further west). At least that's what the globals are showing.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

From what some posters have been posting for awhile now, it's how all these early strong fronts have been pushing south and east so early this year. If that is the case why would it sit out there for such a long period of time not really moving.

Well that's the thing. IF it misses the first trough, ridging will kind of keep slow moving maybe even retrograde but not strong enough to push it west to the coast before the next trough comes (think -NAO, sandy had a bigger negative value of this index that pushed her even further west). At least that's what the globals are showing.

Thanks for the explanation.