ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HURRICANELONNY]

Look at the tropical traffic jam on the map above for the EPAC and then look at our poor little 96L. We should thank our stars it don't look like that in the atlantic this year.

[wxman57]

Surface obs say no LLC north of PR, but definitely no LLC south of PR either. Just a wave axis moving through the region.

[Alyono]

could still be a very small LLC, like the plane found yesterday. West winds could extend maybe 15-20 miles south of a center

[ScottNAtlanta]

Bastardi is now talking about the possibility of a 2 storm solution similar to Gabriele/Humberto of 2007.

[bamajammer4eva]

Bastardi is now talking about the possibility of a 2 storm solution similar to Gabriele/Humberto of 2007.

Also he just tweeted that the circulation center is developing but made no mention of which one north or south.

[wxman57]

I think he's seeing things. Can't find anything in the surface obs or satellite imagery to suggest an LLC is forming.

[stormlover2013]

I don't see where he said 2 storms are are forming

[ScottNAtlanta]

I don't see where he said 2 storms are are forming

It was on his video this morning on the paid site. He said he thinks the southern half will head west and is a threat to develop in the gulf...not right now.

Perhaps Hispaniola will slice it into 2 pieces like a knife

[ScottNAtlanta]

Most of the 850 vorticity is south of PR right now

[Janie2006]

Well, if the southern half of the wave axis (or any part of this wave, for that matter) is developing it sure is doing it Mrs. Butterworth style...slow, syrupy, and messy.

[Tyler Penland]

I think he's seeing things. Can't find anything in the surface obs or satellite imagery to suggest an LLC is forming.

ASCAT caught the far eastern portions of the wave. Nothing apparent on the back side.

[wxman57]

ASCAT caught the far eastern portions of the wave. Nothing apparent on the back side.
http://i742.photobucket.com/albums/xx70 ... 39a028.png

That image is from 8:56pm CDT yesterday (see the UTC time stamp in purple under the image). The entire wave was captured. I highlighted its approximate location on the ASCAT image:

[Tyler Penland]

ASCAT caught the far eastern portions of the wave. Nothing apparent on the back side.
http://i742.photobucket.com/albums/xx70 ... 39a028.png

That image is from 8:56pm CDT yesterday (see the UTC time stamp in purple under the image). The entire wave was captured. I highlighted its approximate location on the ASCAT image:

Ah crap. I was looking at the timestamp at the top which change. Oops.
Thanks for the correction.

[Frank2]

The wave axis seems to have become negatively tilted and if there's any cyclogenesis it looks to be E-NE of Puerto Rico...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/vis-animated.gif

[cycloneye]

Recon is going this afternoon with plane departing St Croix at 12:30 PM EDT.

[bahamaswx]

Carrying perhaps the most convection it's ever had right there.

[tropicwatch]

Possible surface low trying to form south west of Puerto Rico.

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wi ... ,13.25,674

[wxman57]

I don't see anything for recon to fly into this afternoon. Perhaps they'll cancel? No development today.

[hectopascal]

could still be a very small LLC, like the plane found yesterday. West winds could extend maybe 15-20 miles south of a center

Think so too blew up this snap shot looks like the llcc small RED dot.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes_r/provi ... ation.html
22/8 15-15 UTC

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[SouthDadeFish]

I must admit, the storm definitely did not organize overnight as I was thinking it would. 96L still appears to be simply a vigorous tropical wave. That does not mean it won't develop down the road though.