ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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HURRICANELONNY
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#641 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Fri Aug 22, 2014 8:56 am

Look at the tropical traffic jam on the map above for the EPAC and then look at our poor little 96L. We should thank our stars it don't look like that in the atlantic this year. :eek:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#642 Postby wxman57 » Fri Aug 22, 2014 9:01 am

Surface obs say no LLC north of PR, but definitely no LLC south of PR either. Just a wave axis moving through the region.

Image
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#643 Postby Alyono » Fri Aug 22, 2014 9:08 am

could still be a very small LLC, like the plane found yesterday. West winds could extend maybe 15-20 miles south of a center
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#644 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Fri Aug 22, 2014 9:22 am

Bastardi is now talking about the possibility of a 2 storm solution similar to Gabriele/Humberto of 2007.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#645 Postby bamajammer4eva » Fri Aug 22, 2014 9:24 am

ScottNAtlanta wrote:Bastardi is now talking about the possibility of a 2 storm solution similar to Gabriele/Humberto of 2007.


Also he just tweeted that the circulation center is developing but made no mention of which one north or south.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#646 Postby wxman57 » Fri Aug 22, 2014 9:26 am

I think he's seeing things. Can't find anything in the surface obs or satellite imagery to suggest an LLC is forming.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#647 Postby stormlover2013 » Fri Aug 22, 2014 9:30 am

I don't see where he said 2 storms are are forming
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#648 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Fri Aug 22, 2014 9:33 am

stormlover2013 wrote:I don't see where he said 2 storms are are forming


It was on his video this morning on the paid site. He said he thinks the southern half will head west and is a threat to develop in the gulf...not right now.

Perhaps Hispaniola will slice it into 2 pieces like a knife :wink:
Last edited by ScottNAtlanta on Fri Aug 22, 2014 9:38 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#649 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Fri Aug 22, 2014 9:35 am

Most of the 850 vorticity is south of PR right now
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#650 Postby Janie2006 » Fri Aug 22, 2014 9:44 am

Well, if the southern half of the wave axis (or any part of this wave, for that matter) is developing it sure is doing it Mrs. Butterworth style...slow, syrupy, and messy.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#651 Postby Tyler Penland » Fri Aug 22, 2014 9:52 am

wxman57 wrote:I think he's seeing things. Can't find anything in the surface obs or satellite imagery to suggest an LLC is forming.


ASCAT caught the far eastern portions of the wave. Nothing apparent on the back side.
Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#652 Postby wxman57 » Fri Aug 22, 2014 10:01 am

Tyler Penland wrote:
ASCAT caught the far eastern portions of the wave. Nothing apparent on the back side.
http://i742.photobucket.com/albums/xx70 ... 39a028.png


That image is from 8:56pm CDT yesterday (see the UTC time stamp in purple under the image). The entire wave was captured. I highlighted its approximate location on the ASCAT image:

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#653 Postby Tyler Penland » Fri Aug 22, 2014 10:21 am

wxman57 wrote:
Tyler Penland wrote:
ASCAT caught the far eastern portions of the wave. Nothing apparent on the back side.
http://i742.photobucket.com/albums/xx70 ... 39a028.png


That image is from 8:56pm CDT yesterday (see the UTC time stamp in purple under the image). The entire wave was captured. I highlighted its approximate location on the ASCAT image:



Ah crap. I was looking at the timestamp at the top which change. Oops.
Thanks for the correction. :)
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#654 Postby Frank2 » Fri Aug 22, 2014 10:25 am

The wave axis seems to have become negatively tilted and if there's any cyclogenesis it looks to be E-NE of Puerto Rico...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/vis-animated.gif
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#655 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 22, 2014 10:27 am

Recon is going this afternoon with plane departing St Croix at 12:30 PM EDT.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#656 Postby bahamaswx » Fri Aug 22, 2014 10:29 am

Carrying perhaps the most convection it's ever had right there.
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#657 Postby tropicwatch » Fri Aug 22, 2014 10:39 am

Possible surface low trying to form south west of Puerto Rico.

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wi ... ,13.25,674
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#658 Postby wxman57 » Fri Aug 22, 2014 10:40 am

I don't see anything for recon to fly into this afternoon. Perhaps they'll cancel? No development today.
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#659 Postby hectopascal » Fri Aug 22, 2014 10:47 am

Alyono wrote:could still be a very small LLC, like the plane found yesterday. West winds could extend maybe 15-20 miles south of a center


Image
Think so too blew up this snap shot looks like the llcc small RED dot.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes_r/provi ... ation.html
22/8 15-15 UTC

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Last edited by hectopascal on Fri Aug 22, 2014 10:51 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#660 Postby SouthDadeFish » Fri Aug 22, 2014 10:49 am

I must admit, the storm definitely did not organize overnight as I was thinking it would. 96L still appears to be simply a vigorous tropical wave. That does not mean it won't develop down the road though.
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