ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20009
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1001 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 22, 2014 4:39 pm

42h

Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20009
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1002 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 22, 2014 4:40 pm

48h, well west of 12Z run

Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
Bocadude85
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2991
Age: 38
Joined: Mon Apr 18, 2005 2:20 pm
Location: Honolulu,Hi

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1003 Postby Bocadude85 » Fri Aug 22, 2014 4:41 pm

tolakram wrote:42h

Image


Isn't this quite a bit west of the 12z run?
0 likes   
Top
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20009
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1004 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 22, 2014 4:43 pm

54h

Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#1005 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 22, 2014 4:45 pm

Yes it looks a little west to me than the 12Z so far.
0 likes   
Top
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20009
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1006 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 22, 2014 4:45 pm

60h, looks to be stalled again

Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
SouthDadeFish
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 2835
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2010 2:54 pm
Location: Miami, FL
Contact:
Contact SouthDadeFish

#1007 Postby SouthDadeFish » Fri Aug 22, 2014 4:46 pm

Anticyclone directly overhead at 48 hours out on the 18Z GFS. Great UL conditions.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1008 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 22, 2014 4:46 pm

tolakram wrote:60h, looks to be stalled again

Image


Corresponding 12Z image for comparison:
Image
0 likes   
Top
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20009
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1009 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 22, 2014 4:47 pm

66h, not going anywhere

Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
SouthDadeFish
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 2835
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2010 2:54 pm
Location: Miami, FL
Contact:
Contact SouthDadeFish

#1010 Postby SouthDadeFish » Fri Aug 22, 2014 4:49 pm

I'm surprised the GFS isn't deepening it more with that anticyclone overhead and very warm waters....
0 likes   
Top
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20009
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1011 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 22, 2014 4:49 pm

72h looks oddly familiar

Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#1012 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 22, 2014 4:50 pm

Wow that is quite a long stall in the Bahamas....not sure why the GFS would not be deepening this more quickly either. You have a large anticyclone on top with an outflow channel to the NE created by the trough...:

Image
Last edited by gatorcane on Fri Aug 22, 2014 4:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SouthDadeFish
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 2835
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2010 2:54 pm
Location: Miami, FL
Contact:
Contact SouthDadeFish

#1013 Postby SouthDadeFish » Fri Aug 22, 2014 4:52 pm

There is nothing to steer it. The trough is just too far away and it is between those two ridges. Eventually the trough will have to allow it escape out to the NE or else it will get trapped under the building ridge and kicked west.
0 likes   
Top
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20009
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1014 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 22, 2014 4:53 pm

I'm looking at the loop knot at the bottom and no more frames coming in past 72. I think it crashed.
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
Riptide
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 753
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Jul 23, 2010 3:33 pm
Location: Cape May, New Jersey
Contact:
Contact Riptide

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1015 Postby Riptide » Fri Aug 22, 2014 4:53 pm

Here we go again with the convective feedback on the NE side.
:roll:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10146
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1016 Postby Blown Away » Fri Aug 22, 2014 4:53 pm

tolakram wrote:72h looks oddly familiar

Image


12z... 72 hours...
Image
0 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Top
User avatar
Bocadude85
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2991
Age: 38
Joined: Mon Apr 18, 2005 2:20 pm
Location: Honolulu,Hi

Re:

#1017 Postby Bocadude85 » Fri Aug 22, 2014 4:53 pm

gatorcane wrote:Wow that is quite a long stall in the Bahamas....not sure why the GFS would not be deepening this more quickly either:

[img]jpg[/img]


The amount of rain that would fall in the Bahamas would be serious.
Last edited by Bocadude85 on Fri Aug 22, 2014 4:56 pm, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Hurricane Andrew
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1891
Age: 26
Joined: Sun May 23, 2010 2:53 pm
Location: KS

#1018 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Fri Aug 22, 2014 4:54 pm

Well, things have changed since I checked in this morning. Models seem to be a bit west again, and storm is booming.

Interesting days ahead for sure.
0 likes   

The Enthusiast
NREMT-AEMT, WX nerd

Irene '11, Sandy '12, Irma '17 (SAR)

"Hard to think we were born to live this way..." -Wage War
Top
floridasun78
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3755
Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
Location: miami fl

#1019 Postby floridasun78 » Fri Aug 22, 2014 4:56 pm

so few now sifting bit west?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#1020 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 22, 2014 4:56 pm

84 hour frame and it is creeping NW still! :eek:
Last edited by gatorcane on Fri Aug 22, 2014 4:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2014”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 7 guests