ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1001 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 22, 2014 4:39 pm

42h

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1002 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 22, 2014 4:40 pm

48h, well west of 12Z run

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1003 Postby Bocadude85 » Fri Aug 22, 2014 4:41 pm

tolakram wrote:42h

Image


Isn't this quite a bit west of the 12z run?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1004 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 22, 2014 4:43 pm

54h

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#1005 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 22, 2014 4:45 pm

Yes it looks a little west to me than the 12Z so far.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1006 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 22, 2014 4:45 pm

60h, looks to be stalled again

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#1007 Postby SouthDadeFish » Fri Aug 22, 2014 4:46 pm

Anticyclone directly overhead at 48 hours out on the 18Z GFS. Great UL conditions.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1008 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 22, 2014 4:46 pm

tolakram wrote:60h, looks to be stalled again

Image


Corresponding 12Z image for comparison:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1009 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 22, 2014 4:47 pm

66h, not going anywhere

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#1010 Postby SouthDadeFish » Fri Aug 22, 2014 4:49 pm

I'm surprised the GFS isn't deepening it more with that anticyclone overhead and very warm waters....
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1011 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 22, 2014 4:49 pm

72h looks oddly familiar

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#1012 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 22, 2014 4:50 pm

Wow that is quite a long stall in the Bahamas....not sure why the GFS would not be deepening this more quickly either. You have a large anticyclone on top with an outflow channel to the NE created by the trough...:

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Last edited by gatorcane on Fri Aug 22, 2014 4:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#1013 Postby SouthDadeFish » Fri Aug 22, 2014 4:52 pm

There is nothing to steer it. The trough is just too far away and it is between those two ridges. Eventually the trough will have to allow it escape out to the NE or else it will get trapped under the building ridge and kicked west.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1014 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 22, 2014 4:53 pm

I'm looking at the loop knot at the bottom and no more frames coming in past 72. I think it crashed.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1015 Postby Riptide » Fri Aug 22, 2014 4:53 pm

Here we go again with the convective feedback on the NE side.
:roll:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1016 Postby Blown Away » Fri Aug 22, 2014 4:53 pm

tolakram wrote:72h looks oddly familiar

Image


12z... 72 hours...
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Re:

#1017 Postby Bocadude85 » Fri Aug 22, 2014 4:53 pm

gatorcane wrote:Wow that is quite a long stall in the Bahamas....not sure why the GFS would not be deepening this more quickly either:

[img]jpg[/img]


The amount of rain that would fall in the Bahamas would be serious.
Last edited by Bocadude85 on Fri Aug 22, 2014 4:56 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#1018 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Fri Aug 22, 2014 4:54 pm

Well, things have changed since I checked in this morning. Models seem to be a bit west again, and storm is booming.

Interesting days ahead for sure.
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#1019 Postby floridasun78 » Fri Aug 22, 2014 4:56 pm

so few now sifting bit west?
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#1020 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 22, 2014 4:56 pm

84 hour frame and it is creeping NW still! :eek:
Last edited by gatorcane on Fri Aug 22, 2014 4:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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