ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

[Bocadude85]

If I recall.. i think it was the GFS that had this landfall spot on SFL a few days back? Looks to be Broward/Palm B County line.. Boca area?

It's been a long time since the Boca area has seen a direct hit from the east. But as they says it's always good to be in the bullseye 5 days out

[SFLcane]

Awsome conditions across the Bahamas...light winds and extreme heat content could easily be significant storm.

[perk]

If I recall.. i think it was the GFS that had this landfall spot on SFL a few days back? Looks to be Broward/Palm B County line.. Boca area?

The GFS had a Texas and Alabama landfall a few days ago,i'm not surprised at this run.

[tolakram]

144h, back over water

[N2FSU]

18Z GFS +114

[Hurricane Andrew]

Next euro run starts at 1:45am. Will need caffeine and snacks!

LOL. I have a whole thing of ice cream, maybe I should make good on it.

[tolakram]

153h

[floridasun78]

remember that andrew got stronger over Bahama

[Blown Away]

18Z GFS +114

12z... 114 hours... I would say that is a substantial shift west...

[meriland23]

GFS consistently underestimates the intensity of systems. I take the strength forecasted with a grain of salt..seriously. Track wise, they are pretty good.

[JPmia]

If I recall.. i think it was the GFS that had this landfall spot on SFL a few days back? Looks to be Broward/Palm B County line.. Boca area?

It's been a long time since the Boca area has seen a direct hit from the east. But as they says it's always good to be in the bullseye 5 days out

Yeah .. 1947 comes to mind as the last one .. and that wasn't pretty.

[tolakram]

159h

[meriland23]

18Z GFS +114

12z... 114 hours... I would say that is a substantial shift west...

What in the map caused such a shift west? Or is it some phantom fluke

[gatorcane]

The ECMWF has been very consistent with a recurve track. As somebody pointed out this is one of the more complex steering situations in a while and the models are having a difficult time figuring it out even in the short to medium range.

[tolakram]

168h

[Evil Jeremy]

The ECMWF has been very consistent with a recurve track. As somebody pointed out this is one of the more complex steering situations in a while and the models are having a difficult time figuring it out even in the short to medium range.

It did, however, make a decent shift to the SW earlier today. Lets see what it does at 00z.

[Alyono]

It's moving west as it simply moves faster at the initial time period. The stall comes too far west for the trough to pick it up

[Steve]

No comment on the validity of the 18Z GFS. I had 150 miles either side of FL from a few days ago (which surely remains to be seen). However, this is a drastic change in track. Interestingly, to me anyway, this isn't the first huge swing West for the GFS at 18Z for 96L. That was brought up Tuesday or Wednesday as a side note as long-time model watchers know that the 18z GFS tends to (historically) bias systems right/east. Were this to verify, a lot of the upper Florida East Coast would be inundated with rainbands (probably a lot of training with them as would be typical of a slow moving, weaker system not really deteriorating over South Florida). There easily could be plenty of beach erosion north through Flagler, St Johns and Duval Counties. Again, I'm not making a judgment call on the merits of this run.

What I'd also like to point out is as many models have improved, that over the last few years we have had some pretty tight clustering 3-4 days out in many cases which was almost taking the guesswork and thrill out of watching the tropics. It's always entertaining to get a system that throws curveballs to assure us all that we aren't anywhere near being able to nail a given system down 100%. Let's see what the rest of the 18z and 00z models have to say.

[tolakram]

171h, close brush with the Outer Banks.

[meriland23]

Its a east coast creeper in 18z