ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

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Bocadude85
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1061 Postby Bocadude85 » Fri Aug 22, 2014 5:12 pm

JPmia wrote:If I recall.. i think it was the GFS that had this landfall spot on SFL a few days back? Looks to be Broward/Palm B County line.. Boca area?


It's been a long time since the Boca area has seen a direct hit from the east. But as they says it's always good to be in the bullseye 5 days out
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1062 Postby SFLcane » Fri Aug 22, 2014 5:12 pm

Awsome conditions across the Bahamas...light winds and extreme heat content could easily be significant storm.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1063 Postby perk » Fri Aug 22, 2014 5:12 pm

JPmia wrote:If I recall.. i think it was the GFS that had this landfall spot on SFL a few days back? Looks to be Broward/Palm B County line.. Boca area?



The GFS had a Texas and Alabama landfall a few days ago,i'm not surprised at this run.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1064 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 22, 2014 5:12 pm

144h, back over water

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1065 Postby N2FSU » Fri Aug 22, 2014 5:14 pm

18Z GFS +114

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1066 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Fri Aug 22, 2014 5:14 pm

tolakram wrote:Next euro run starts at 1:45am. Will need caffeine and snacks!

LOL. I have a whole thing of ice cream, maybe I should make good on it.

:lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1067 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 22, 2014 5:16 pm

153h

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#1068 Postby floridasun78 » Fri Aug 22, 2014 5:17 pm

remember that andrew got stronger over Bahama
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1069 Postby Blown Away » Fri Aug 22, 2014 5:17 pm

N2FSU wrote:18Z GFS +114

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12z... 114 hours... I would say that is a substantial shift west...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1070 Postby meriland23 » Fri Aug 22, 2014 5:17 pm

GFS consistently underestimates the intensity of systems. I take the strength forecasted with a grain of salt..seriously. Track wise, they are pretty good.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1071 Postby JPmia » Fri Aug 22, 2014 5:17 pm

Bocadude85 wrote:
JPmia wrote:If I recall.. i think it was the GFS that had this landfall spot on SFL a few days back? Looks to be Broward/Palm B County line.. Boca area?


It's been a long time since the Boca area has seen a direct hit from the east. But as they says it's always good to be in the bullseye 5 days out


Yeah .. 1947 comes to mind as the last one .. and that wasn't pretty.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1072 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 22, 2014 5:18 pm

159h

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1073 Postby meriland23 » Fri Aug 22, 2014 5:18 pm

Blown Away wrote:
N2FSU wrote:18Z GFS +114

Image


Image
12z... 114 hours... I would say that is a substantial shift west...



What in the map caused such a shift west? Or is it some phantom fluke
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#1074 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 22, 2014 5:19 pm

The ECMWF has been very consistent with a recurve track. As somebody pointed out this is one of the more complex steering situations in a while and the models are having a difficult time figuring it out even in the short to medium range.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1075 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 22, 2014 5:20 pm

168h

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Re:

#1076 Postby Evil Jeremy » Fri Aug 22, 2014 5:20 pm

gatorcane wrote:The ECMWF has been very consistent with a recurve track. As somebody pointed out this is one of the more complex steering situations in a while and the models are having a difficult time figuring it out even in the short to medium range.


It did, however, make a decent shift to the SW earlier today. Lets see what it does at 00z.
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#1077 Postby Alyono » Fri Aug 22, 2014 5:21 pm

It's moving west as it simply moves faster at the initial time period. The stall comes too far west for the trough to pick it up
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#1078 Postby Steve » Fri Aug 22, 2014 5:23 pm

No comment on the validity of the 18Z GFS. I had 150 miles either side of FL from a few days ago (which surely remains to be seen). However, this is a drastic change in track. Interestingly, to me anyway, this isn't the first huge swing West for the GFS at 18Z for 96L. That was brought up Tuesday or Wednesday as a side note as long-time model watchers know that the 18z GFS tends to (historically) bias systems right/east. Were this to verify, a lot of the upper Florida East Coast would be inundated with rainbands (probably a lot of training with them as would be typical of a slow moving, weaker system not really deteriorating over South Florida). There easily could be plenty of beach erosion north through Flagler, St Johns and Duval Counties. Again, I'm not making a judgment call on the merits of this run.

What I'd also like to point out is as many models have improved, that over the last few years we have had some pretty tight clustering 3-4 days out in many cases which was almost taking the guesswork and thrill out of watching the tropics. It's always entertaining to get a system that throws curveballs to assure us all that we aren't anywhere near being able to nail a given system down 100%. Let's see what the rest of the 18z and 00z models have to say.
Last edited by Steve on Fri Aug 22, 2014 5:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1079 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 22, 2014 5:23 pm

171h, close brush with the Outer Banks.

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#1080 Postby meriland23 » Fri Aug 22, 2014 5:23 pm

Its a east coast creeper in 18z
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