ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

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gatorcane
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#1241 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 22, 2014 11:01 pm

North of the 18Z and drifting north in the Northern Bahamas....111 hours east of Fl...south FL spared in this run...
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Re: Re:

#1242 Postby Alyono » Fri Aug 22, 2014 11:03 pm

Miami Storm Tracker wrote:
Alyono wrote:Earth to s2k

Andrew was a cat 5 EAST of the Bahamas. This is not going to be an Andrew


Evening Alyono,

was there not a period when Andrew was fairly weak in the Bahamas before heading west.


it was weak NE of Antigua
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1243 Postby bella_may » Fri Aug 22, 2014 11:03 pm

Wow. HUGE west shift. Now I'm tempted to stay up for the euro.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1244 Postby SFLcane » Fri Aug 22, 2014 11:03 pm

Brushes fll drifting north.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1245 Postby blp » Fri Aug 22, 2014 11:04 pm

Weakness closes faster.

Image
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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#1246 Postby Alyono » Fri Aug 22, 2014 11:04 pm

not nearly enough ridging to get this into FL this run
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#1247 Postby artist » Fri Aug 22, 2014 11:04 pm

Anyone know where it initiated? Close to where it appears to actually be, center wise?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1248 Postby SFLcane » Fri Aug 22, 2014 11:05 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1249 Postby blp » Fri Aug 22, 2014 11:05 pm

It gets a little further north early on but the weakness closes faster.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1250 Postby sunnyday » Fri Aug 22, 2014 11:05 pm

So Fl has been spared from hurricanes since 2005. Why should it change now?

Just my opinion. Follow NWS and NHC products.
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Re:

#1251 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 22, 2014 11:06 pm

Alyono wrote:not nearly enough ridging to get this into FL this run


Yes but it seems like it is awfully close to getting stuck underneath...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1252 Postby Evil Jeremy » Fri Aug 22, 2014 11:07 pm

120 hours:

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1253 Postby SFLcane » Fri Aug 22, 2014 11:07 pm

Regardless tough call. Still west of other models.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1254 Postby Evil Jeremy » Fri Aug 22, 2014 11:08 pm

sunnyday wrote:So Fl has been spared from hurricanes since 2005. Why should it change now?

Just my opinion. Follow NWS and NHC products.


Because anything can happen. The tropics have no memory of previous years.

I'm not comfortable with so many models being over or close to Florida right now, and the models shifts are still not over. It can still go east or west of the current GFS run, we won't know for sure where it's going to end up until we get some GIV data.
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SeGaBob

#1255 Postby SeGaBob » Fri Aug 22, 2014 11:08 pm

When does the euro start running?
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#1256 Postby Steve » Fri Aug 22, 2014 11:08 pm

Yes but it seems like it is awfully close to getting stuck underneath...


Which could be bad enough since the water will pile up for days and days and days on all east facing beaches, which is the majority of the East Coast of Florida anyway. At least some effects through Wednesday on that run. And the Bahamas? Better stock up on multiple bottles of rum if 00Z GFS is right.
Last edited by Steve on Fri Aug 22, 2014 11:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#1257 Postby JPmia » Fri Aug 22, 2014 11:08 pm

gatorcane wrote:North of the 18Z and drifting north in the Northern Bahamas....111 hours east of Fl...south FL spared in this run...


this is such a tricky forecast.. depends on how strong these highs will be up north.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1258 Postby Blown Away » Fri Aug 22, 2014 11:09 pm

Barely misses Florida on this run... Much stronger after 108 hours...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1259 Postby Janie2006 » Fri Aug 22, 2014 11:09 pm

GFS may very well spare SFL on this run, but I still don't like the overall westward tendency for possible Crystal Ball.
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Re:

#1260 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 22, 2014 11:09 pm

SeGaBob wrote:When does the euro start running?


At 2 AM EDT.
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