ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models
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Re: Re:
Miami Storm Tracker wrote:Alyono wrote:Earth to s2k
Andrew was a cat 5 EAST of the Bahamas. This is not going to be an Andrew
Evening Alyono,
was there not a period when Andrew was fairly weak in the Bahamas before heading west.
it was weak NE of Antigua
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
Weakness closes faster.


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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
It gets a little further north early on but the weakness closes faster.
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
So Fl has been spared from hurricanes since 2005. Why should it change now?
Just my opinion. Follow NWS and NHC products.
Just my opinion. Follow NWS and NHC products.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
120 hours:


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Frances 04 / Jeanne 04 / Katrina 05 / Wilma 05 / Fay 08 / Debby 12 / Andrea 13 / Colin 16 / Hermine 16 / Matthew 16 / Irma 17
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
sunnyday wrote:So Fl has been spared from hurricanes since 2005. Why should it change now?
Just my opinion. Follow NWS and NHC products.
Because anything can happen. The tropics have no memory of previous years.
I'm not comfortable with so many models being over or close to Florida right now, and the models shifts are still not over. It can still go east or west of the current GFS run, we won't know for sure where it's going to end up until we get some GIV data.
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Frances 04 / Jeanne 04 / Katrina 05 / Wilma 05 / Fay 08 / Debby 12 / Andrea 13 / Colin 16 / Hermine 16 / Matthew 16 / Irma 17
Yes but it seems like it is awfully close to getting stuck underneath...
Which could be bad enough since the water will pile up for days and days and days on all east facing beaches, which is the majority of the East Coast of Florida anyway. At least some effects through Wednesday on that run. And the Bahamas? Better stock up on multiple bottles of rum if 00Z GFS is right.
Last edited by Steve on Fri Aug 22, 2014 11:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:
gatorcane wrote:North of the 18Z and drifting north in the Northern Bahamas....111 hours east of Fl...south FL spared in this run...
this is such a tricky forecast.. depends on how strong these highs will be up north.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
Barely misses Florida on this run... Much stronger after 108 hours...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
GFS may very well spare SFL on this run, but I still don't like the overall westward tendency for possible Crystal Ball.
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Re:
SeGaBob wrote:When does the euro start running?
At 2 AM EDT.
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