ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#161 Postby floridasun78 » Wed Sep 10, 2014 7:48 pm

nhc thinking wont be td before landfall unless get better looking soon very soon
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#162 Postby fci » Wed Sep 10, 2014 7:51 pm

Oh well, maybe a little rain for South Florida.
Amazing how much rain we have had especially given we haven't had any tropical systems.
No big whoop for us even if it becomes a TD or even a weak TS.
But at least a little something to follow.
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#163 Postby NDG » Wed Sep 10, 2014 7:56 pm

Here is the NE shear that is forecasted to reach down to 92L over the next couple of days, 0z JAX sounding, up to 65 knots winds at H20, wow!

Image
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Re:

#164 Postby Ntxw » Wed Sep 10, 2014 8:03 pm

NDG wrote:Here is the NE shear that is forecasted to reach down to 92L over the next couple of days, 0z JAX sounding, up to 65 knots winds at H20, wow!

http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/bimage ... t.parc.gif


Cold front from the far north. It's crossing Texas now. But the next 24 hours is a good open window for 92L if it wants to take advantage. Shear will slowly make it's way first being close to SE HP beyond that point.

Image
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#165 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Sep 10, 2014 8:09 pm

IMO 92L has already peaked earlier this afternoon, 2014 season continues to live up to it's name. :roll:
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Re:

#166 Postby Bocadude85 » Wed Sep 10, 2014 8:20 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:IMO 92L has already peaked earlier this afternoon, 2014 season continues to live up to it's name. :roll:

Do you have any actual reasoning other then "it's 2014"? Conditions look favorable for the next 24 hours so so.
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Re: Re:

#167 Postby NDG » Wed Sep 10, 2014 8:23 pm

Ntxw wrote:
NDG wrote:Here is the NE shear that is forecasted to reach down to 92L over the next couple of days, 0z JAX sounding, up to 65 knots winds at H20, wow!

http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/bimage ... t.parc.gif


Cold front from the far north. It's crossing Texas now. But the next 24 hours is a good open window for 92L if it wants to take advantage. Shear will slowly make it's way first being close to SE HP beyond that point.

http://i59.tinypic.com/qwyn7o.gif


Yeah, I agree, it has about 24 hrs or so as shown by the latest SHIPS shear forecast.
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Re:

#168 Postby Hammy » Wed Sep 10, 2014 8:25 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:IMO 92L has already peaked earlier this afternoon, 2014 season continues to live up to it's name. :roll:


What name would that be? This literally doesn't make any sense.
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#169 Postby gatorcane » Wed Sep 10, 2014 8:27 pm

convection is on the increase again the past several hours...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#170 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 10, 2014 8:30 pm

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Re: Re:

#171 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Wed Sep 10, 2014 8:34 pm

Bocadude85 wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:IMO 92L has already peaked earlier this afternoon, 2014 season continues to live up to it's name. :roll:

Do you have any actual reasoning other then "it's 2014"? Conditions look favorable for the next 24 hours so so.


That would be a big time no, every post he post is so negative or made to be a joke.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#172 Postby jlauderdal » Wed Sep 10, 2014 8:35 pm


impressive towers on the nw side...has a long way to go before something that woukd cause watches or warnings
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#173 Postby floridasun78 » Wed Sep 10, 2014 8:38 pm

why have not nhc put floater on invest 92?
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Re: Re:

#174 Postby fci » Wed Sep 10, 2014 8:42 pm

Hammy wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:IMO 92L has already peaked earlier this afternoon, 2014 season continues to live up to it's name. :roll:


What name would that be? This literally doesn't make any sense.


Anxious too to learn this mysterious name. Didn't realize the NHC had started naming seasons!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#175 Postby gatorcane » Wed Sep 10, 2014 8:46 pm

jlauderdal wrote:

impressive towers on the nw side...has a long way to go before something that woukd cause watches or warnings


Yes indeed. It's interesting to note the 18Z GFS simulated IR did not show anything like this that is happening now. It collapsed the convection pretty quickly.
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TheStormExpert

#176 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Sep 10, 2014 8:46 pm

One thing to note from the NHC's latest TWO for 92L is while they forecast environmental conditions to become unfavorable within 24hrs. or so, they do have a slightly higher chance of development beyond 2-days hence the 20/30%.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#177 Postby jlauderdal » Wed Sep 10, 2014 8:57 pm

gatorcane wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:

impressive towers on the nw side...has a long way to go before something that woukd cause watches or warnings


Yes indeed. It's interesting to note the 18Z GFS simulated IR did not show anything like this that is happening now. It collapsed the convection pretty quickly.

gotta love the gfs
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#178 Postby Blown Away » Wed Sep 10, 2014 9:00 pm

jlauderdal wrote:

impressive towers on the nw side...has a long way to go before something that woukd cause watches or warnings


At a minimum, this view looks really intimidating with all the dark reds and blacks... Scary looking... :eek:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#179 Postby jlauderdal » Wed Sep 10, 2014 9:07 pm

Blown Away wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:

impressive towers on the nw side...has a long way to go before something that woukd cause watches or warnings


At a minimum, this view looks really intimidating with all the dark reds and blacks... Scary looking... :eek:

no doubt, looks like a monster is bearing down...maybe the solar flare up will cause some weird tropical enhancement and get things rolling in the atlantic
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#180 Postby gatorcane » Wed Sep 10, 2014 9:09 pm

Latest - convection continues to blossom:
Image
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