Global model runs discussion

floridasun78 · #7901 Postby **floridasun78** » Mon Oct 06, 2014 5:29 pm

i want see gfs show by friday

#7902 Postby **SFLcane** » Mon Oct 06, 2014 5:40 pm

Guess its texas turn now..18z run looks heading W after clipping yucatan.

HURRICANELONNY · #7903 Postby **HURRICANELONNY** » Mon Oct 06, 2014 5:50 pm

I don't know why i'm even responding to this because its the GFS but dont see Texas on the 12z run at all. Just showing it clipping the Yucatan. :roll:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

#7904 Postby **Alyono** » Mon Oct 06, 2014 5:51 pm

18Z MU bombs this in the GOM, but it then collapses as it moves to Tampico

tropicwatch · #7905 Postby **tropicwatch** » Mon Oct 06, 2014 6:05 pm

Well at least it is something to look at even though it might just be a ghost storm. It is October ya know. :grrr:

PTrackerLA · #7906 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Mon Oct 06, 2014 6:05 pm

18z GFS crazy track in long range but still insisting we see a tropical depression by the end of the work week. We'll see.

tropicwatch · #7907 Postby **tropicwatch** » Mon Oct 06, 2014 6:48 pm

The GFS might be on to something. It appears part of the disturbed weather in the vicinity of Panama is moving northward.

#7908 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Mon Oct 06, 2014 6:54 pm

^^^^^^^^^ Looks like a ridge setting up aloft.

TheStormExpert · #7909 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Mon Oct 06, 2014 6:58 pm

What are everyone's thoughts on the sudden 180 degree shift in today's GFS runs from a Florida hit to now a Texas/Mexico hit?

TheStormExpert · #7910 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Mon Oct 06, 2014 6:59 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:^^^^^^^^^ Looks like a ridge setting up aloft.

Where?

#7911 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Mon Oct 06, 2014 7:12 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
Dean4Storms wrote:^^^^^^^^^ Looks like a ridge setting up aloft.

Where?

Right there over Central America, note the tops of convection moving off to the north then east north of Panama yet south and west to the South.

#7912 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Mon Oct 06, 2014 7:13 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:
Dean4Storms wrote:^^^^^^^^^ Looks like a ridge setting up aloft.

Where?

Right there over Central America, note the tops of convection moving off to the north then east north of Panama yet south and west to the South.

There is a clockwise turning there at upper levels.

TheStormExpert · #7913 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Mon Oct 06, 2014 7:43 pm

You would think with the NAO being Negative we would be seeing more deepening troughs in the Eastern part of the U.S., guess that won't be the case?

NAO Forecast :darrow:

asd123 · #7914 Postby **asd123** » Mon Oct 06, 2014 7:54 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:You would think with the NAO being Negative we would be seeing more deepening troughs in the Eastern part of the U.S., guess that won't be the case?

NAO Forecast

Yeah that's really bizarre. The AO and NAO are forecasted to be very negative, the PNA positive. Yet for the Southeast (I'm in Orlando Florida), all the models show zero hint of these teleconnections. No cool weather whatsoever. Warm weather is forecasted in fact. Generally over the next two weeks mid to upper 80s highs and upper 60s low 70s (mainly low 70s) for lows. This warm weather forecast would indicate the lack of a trough.

What is going on? Why isn't the forecast reflecting these teleconnections?

TheStormExpert · #7915 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Mon Oct 06, 2014 8:00 pm

asd123 wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:You would think with the NAO being Negative we would be seeing more deepening troughs in the Eastern part of the U.S., guess that won't be the case?

NAO Forecast

Yeah that's really bizarre. The AO and NAO are forecasted to be very negative, the PNA positive. Yet for the Southeast (I'm in Orlando Florida), all the models show zero hint of these teleconnections. No cool weather whatsoever. Warm weather is forecasted in fact. Generally over the next two weeks mid to upper 80s highs and upper 60s low 70s (mainly low 70s) for lows.

What is going on? Why isn't the forecast reflecting these teleconnections?

Yeah, the AO is forecasted to really spike Negative before tending towards Neutral. As for the PNA, it is expected to spike Positive before going Negative again. This really makes no sense to me?

AO Forecast :darrow:

PNA Forecast :darrow:

TheStormExpert · #7916 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Mon Oct 06, 2014 8:05 pm

Very interesting Tweet from Tropical Tidbit's Levi Cowan on today's 12z and 18z GFS landfall destinations.

Levi Cowan
‏@TropicalTidbits
6:01 PM - 6 Oct 2014

FYI, there is a grand total of 4 Texas landfalls during the month of October since 1842:

Hurricaneman · #7917 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Mon Oct 06, 2014 11:23 pm

The 0zGFS has backed off on development

#7918 Postby **LarryWx** » Mon Oct 06, 2014 11:28 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:The 0zGFS has backed off on development

It definitely was a weaker genesis, the weakest in many runs. However, it still did have a SW Caribbean genesis for the 18th time in row. I do wonder if this weaker genesis is a sign of things to come lol.

LaBreeze · #7919 Postby **LaBreeze** » Mon Oct 06, 2014 11:30 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:The 0zGFS has backed off on development

Not surprised - other models will probably do the same.

#7920 Postby **LarryWx** » Mon Oct 06, 2014 11:32 pm

Based on the 240 hour map, I'm guessing it is going to push toward the western GoM again.

Edit: going to MX.

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