ATL: GONZALO - Models
Moderator: S2k Moderators
- TheStormExpert
- Category 5
- Posts: 8487
- Age: 30
- Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
- Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL
Euro takes it over the Greater Antilles and does not develop it at all now.
0 likes
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 141481
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
18z Model suite.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 3755
- Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
- Location: miami fl
-
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 58
- Age: 43
- Joined: Sun Jun 29, 2014 7:52 am
- Location: Yonkers, NY
IMO the models do not have a clue because of the ULL position and timing, the models have been off all season as we know and I find it suspect that the Euro lost this as strong as it had it so quickly. Watch in the next day or two for one I think it develops and two I think it will resurface on models. And I think even though sgetti take it OTS depending on the high over atlantic and the ULL this could be a threat to the upper east coast. As I recall the 15/16th time frame on GFS over a week ago was showing a major hit on the northeast, we will see.
0 likes
This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re:
weatherfanatic wrote:IMO the models do not have a clue because of the ULL position and timing, the models have been off all season as we know and I find it suspect that the Euro lost this as strong as it had it so quickly. Watch in the next day or two for one I think it develops and two I think it will resurface on models. And I think even though sgetti take it OTS depending on the high over atlantic and the ULL this could be a threat to the upper east coast. As I recall the 15/16th time frame on GFS over a week ago was showing a major hit on the northeast, we will see.
The Euro does have a habit of losing things medium-range, but in this case it appears that it's due to it tracking over land, which gives me the impression that it may be correct in dropping it this time.
0 likes
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 58
- Age: 43
- Joined: Sun Jun 29, 2014 7:52 am
- Location: Yonkers, NY
Could be hammy, but this year has been unpredictible and pretty much let downs but you never know. Thats why I never let my guard down, even if I am not in FL up here we have the winter systems to worry about. And tropical systems do affect us, its not often but they do happen ie. Sandy, Irene, Floyd, Bob, Gloria to mention the ones I have been through.
0 likes
This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
There were two possibilities with 90L in regards to the Euro: the first is that it was weaker because of land interaction, the second, it went further west (and thus over land) because the model is up to it's old tricks of dropping it medium range, the latter seeming to be the case given that it once again shows a hurricane coming out of it.
0 likes
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 141481
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC SUN OCT 12 2014
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902014) 20141012 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
141012 1200 141013 0000 141013 1200 141014 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.7N 57.4W 17.0N 59.4W 17.5N 61.6W 18.2N 63.6W
BAMD 16.7N 57.4W 17.1N 59.6W 17.6N 61.5W 18.6N 63.2W
BAMM 16.7N 57.4W 17.0N 59.6W 17.6N 61.7W 18.4N 63.7W
LBAR 16.7N 57.4W 17.1N 59.5W 17.9N 61.6W 18.9N 63.6W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS 49KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS 49KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
141014 1200 141015 1200 141016 1200 141017 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.1N 65.6W 21.1N 68.7W 22.3N 70.3W 22.8N 70.2W
BAMD 19.9N 64.6W 22.3N 66.9W 24.0N 67.7W 26.1N 67.0W
BAMM 19.5N 65.6W 21.4N 68.3W 22.5N 69.7W 23.3N 69.1W
LBAR 20.1N 65.6W 22.8N 68.2W 24.2N 68.8W 26.3N 68.4W
SHIP 57KTS 73KTS 87KTS 95KTS
DSHP 57KTS 73KTS 87KTS 95KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.7N LONCUR = 57.4W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 16.5N LONM12 = 56.0W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 16.0N LONM24 = 54.0W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC SUN OCT 12 2014
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902014) 20141012 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
141012 1200 141013 0000 141013 1200 141014 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.7N 57.4W 17.0N 59.4W 17.5N 61.6W 18.2N 63.6W
BAMD 16.7N 57.4W 17.1N 59.6W 17.6N 61.5W 18.6N 63.2W
BAMM 16.7N 57.4W 17.0N 59.6W 17.6N 61.7W 18.4N 63.7W
LBAR 16.7N 57.4W 17.1N 59.5W 17.9N 61.6W 18.9N 63.6W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS 49KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS 49KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
141014 1200 141015 1200 141016 1200 141017 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.1N 65.6W 21.1N 68.7W 22.3N 70.3W 22.8N 70.2W
BAMD 19.9N 64.6W 22.3N 66.9W 24.0N 67.7W 26.1N 67.0W
BAMM 19.5N 65.6W 21.4N 68.3W 22.5N 69.7W 23.3N 69.1W
LBAR 20.1N 65.6W 22.8N 68.2W 24.2N 68.8W 26.3N 68.4W
SHIP 57KTS 73KTS 87KTS 95KTS
DSHP 57KTS 73KTS 87KTS 95KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.7N LONCUR = 57.4W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 16.5N LONM12 = 56.0W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 16.0N LONM24 = 54.0W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 3755
- Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
- Location: miami fl
look like going miss bahamas _________________
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
0 likes
It does look like a miss for the Bahamas on that run. That cold front coming through the SE the middle of this coming week means business. I can't see any reason why this would affect the US but again the weather can always provide surprises. Fay was suppose to miss Bermuda to the SE but they did take a direct hit.
0 likes
-
- Admin
- Posts: 19616
- Age: 61
- Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
- Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)
Re:
TARHEELPROGRAMMER wrote:No doubt a fish which has oddly been the case for any storm of promise threatening the US since Katrina.
You are leaving out a number of storms since Katrina that have struck the US.
0 likes
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Re: Re:
tolakram wrote:TARHEELPROGRAMMER wrote:No doubt a fish which has oddly been the case for any storm of promise threatening the US since Katrina.
You are leaving out a number of storms since Katrina that have struck the US.
None of major status or at least none that fit the bill. I think there was Ike correct? I do not think it done a lot of damage.
0 likes
- srainhoutx
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6919
- Age: 66
- Joined: Sun Jan 14, 2007 11:34 am
- Location: Haywood County, NC
- Contact:
Re: Re:
TARHEELPROGRAMMER wrote:
None of major status or at least none that fit the bill. I think there was Ike correct? I do not think it done a lot of damage.
Absolutely false. Rita 2005 and Ike 2008 which had a Category 4 surge across SE Texas and did billions in damage across a large portion of the US from flooding inland rains and wind damage across the Ohio Valley
0 likes
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Wx Infinity Forums
http://wxinfinity.com/index.php
Facebook.com/WeatherInfinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Wx Infinity Forums
http://wxinfinity.com/index.php
Facebook.com/WeatherInfinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 11 guests