ATL: GONZALO - Models

[TheStormExpert]

The next (12z) run of "King" Euro is about to come out!

Drum Roll please...

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro at 5 days shows no development.

[Hammy]

Euro takes it over the Greater Antilles and does not develop it at all now.

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER]

It sure does look like it is gaining steam as we speak on here. I just do not understand why the models show nothing. Is it going to develop and die off in just a few hours time?

[cycloneye]

18z Model suite.

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER]

Will be a hurricane in 48 hours I am calling it now. Models are wrong on development because this thing is taking off.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS seems to be backing way off on development through 78 hours so far.

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER]

18Z GFS seems to be backing way off on development through 78 hours so far.

What is it seeing?

[floridasun78]

so all models showing turn over southern Bahamas?

[weatherfanatic]

IMO the models do not have a clue because of the ULL position and timing, the models have been off all season as we know and I find it suspect that the Euro lost this as strong as it had it so quickly. Watch in the next day or two for one I think it develops and two I think it will resurface on models. And I think even though sgetti take it OTS depending on the high over atlantic and the ULL this could be a threat to the upper east coast. As I recall the 15/16th time frame on GFS over a week ago was showing a major hit on the northeast, we will see.

[Hammy]

IMO the models do not have a clue because of the ULL position and timing, the models have been off all season as we know and I find it suspect that the Euro lost this as strong as it had it so quickly. Watch in the next day or two for one I think it develops and two I think it will resurface on models. And I think even though sgetti take it OTS depending on the high over atlantic and the ULL this could be a threat to the upper east coast. As I recall the 15/16th time frame on GFS over a week ago was showing a major hit on the northeast, we will see.

The Euro does have a habit of losing things medium-range, but in this case it appears that it's due to it tracking over land, which gives me the impression that it may be correct in dropping it this time.

[weatherfanatic]

Could be hammy, but this year has been unpredictible and pretty much let downs but you never know. Thats why I never let my guard down, even if I am not in FL up here we have the winter systems to worry about. And tropical systems do affect us, its not often but they do happen ie. Sandy, Irene, Floyd, Bob, Gloria to mention the ones I have been through.

[Hammy]

There were two possibilities with 90L in regards to the Euro: the first is that it was weaker because of land interaction, the second, it went further west (and thus over land) because the model is up to it's old tricks of dropping it medium range, the latter seeming to be the case given that it once again shows a hurricane coming out of it.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC SUN OCT 12 2014

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902014) 20141012 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
141012 1200 141013 0000 141013 1200 141014 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.7N 57.4W 17.0N 59.4W 17.5N 61.6W 18.2N 63.6W
BAMD 16.7N 57.4W 17.1N 59.6W 17.6N 61.5W 18.6N 63.2W
BAMM 16.7N 57.4W 17.0N 59.6W 17.6N 61.7W 18.4N 63.7W
LBAR 16.7N 57.4W 17.1N 59.5W 17.9N 61.6W 18.9N 63.6W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS 49KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS 49KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
141014 1200 141015 1200 141016 1200 141017 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.1N 65.6W 21.1N 68.7W 22.3N 70.3W 22.8N 70.2W
BAMD 19.9N 64.6W 22.3N 66.9W 24.0N 67.7W 26.1N 67.0W
BAMM 19.5N 65.6W 21.4N 68.3W 22.5N 69.7W 23.3N 69.1W
LBAR 20.1N 65.6W 22.8N 68.2W 24.2N 68.8W 26.3N 68.4W
SHIP 57KTS 73KTS 87KTS 95KTS
DSHP 57KTS 73KTS 87KTS 95KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.7N LONCUR = 57.4W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 16.5N LONM12 = 56.0W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 16.0N LONM24 = 54.0W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[floridasun78]

look like going miss bahamas _________________
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[TARHEELPROGRAMMER]

No doubt a fish which has oddly been the case for any storm of promise threatening the US since Katrina.

[pgoss11]

It does look like a miss for the Bahamas on that run. That cold front coming through the SE the middle of this coming week means business. I can't see any reason why this would affect the US but again the weather can always provide surprises. Fay was suppose to miss Bermuda to the SE but they did take a direct hit.

[tolakram]

No doubt a fish which has oddly been the case for any storm of promise threatening the US since Katrina.

You are leaving out a number of storms since Katrina that have struck the US.

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER]

No doubt a fish which has oddly been the case for any storm of promise threatening the US since Katrina.

You are leaving out a number of storms since Katrina that have struck the US.

None of major status or at least none that fit the bill. I think there was Ike correct? I do not think it done a lot of damage.

[srainhoutx]

None of major status or at least none that fit the bill. I think there was Ike correct? I do not think it done a lot of damage.

Absolutely false. Rita 2005 and Ike 2008 which had a Category 4 surge across SE Texas and did billions in damage across a large portion of the US from flooding inland rains and wind damage across the Ohio Valley