ATL: GONZALO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

As Crazy said big data coming and here it is.

[supercane4867]

That pressure drop confirms Gonzalo is officially undergoing RI

[CrazyC83]

Hard to say on that data. The SFMR doesn't seem too reliable due to hitting hot towers, while the FL winds of 125 kt translate to 113 kt at the surface (and a 115 kt intensity).

Honestly, I would split the difference for now at 105 or 110 kt.

[CrazyC83]

Recon having issues now? Could there be extreme turbulence a la Felix?

[northjaxpro]

Recon having issues now? Could there be extreme turbulence a la Felix?

With a hurricane this strong, I wouldn't doubt at all that they are having a bumpy ride to say the least right now.

[lilybeth]

That photo is incredible. Seems like the best looking storm this year. I hope all in Bermuda stay safe.

[CrazyC83]

I remember during Felix when it was bombing out, a flight had to return to base after one pass due to turbulence and graupel. Something tells me it is happening again? We need a Special Advisory or post from the NHC to determine.

[EquusStorm]

Inner core structure just continues to look more impressive. Really goes well with the rapid pressure drop... no doubt we'll have a category four on our hands by morning, if not sooner.

[cycloneye]

They are releasing again the data.

URNT12 KNHC 142302
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL082014
A. 14/22:42:00Z
B. 21 deg 34 min N
066 deg 04 min W
C. 700 mb 2747 m
D. 107 kt
E. 239 deg 6 nm
F. 334 deg 88 kt
G. 239 deg 6 nm
H. 959 mb
I. 10 C / 3022 m
J. 20 C / 3022 m
K. NA / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C10
N. 12345 / 07
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF302 0608A GONZALO OB 07
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 125 KT 055 / 7 NM 22:44:00Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WINDS 160 / 21 KT
;

[Hammy]

Not to be alarmist or anything but is it possible this could reach Cat 5 if it is indeed strengthening as quickly as it seems?

[CrazyC83]

I see no reason if this pace continues why it cannot reach Cat 5 by tomorrow, unless an ERC happens before then. It is likely near Cat 4 now.

[northjaxpro]

Not to be alarmist or anything but is it possible this could reach Cat 5 if it is indeed strengthening as quickly as it seems?

It is almost about at Cat 4 strength now at the rate it is strengthening currently.

Well, with the conditions being very ideal for strengthening in the short term, it is conceivable that it could reach Cat 5 up to about 48 hours on its approach to Bermuda.

[CrazyC83]

The 957 pressure is rather high for the intensity, but that to be expected given the small size and ridge nearby.

[supercane4867]

Honestly it needs to look much more impressive than it is right now to reach Cat.5

[ozonepete]

Very, very impressive satellite presentation. I'm also beginning to believe this has a shot at cat 5 due to its smaller size, and SSTs are good enough to do it.

[EquusStorm]

It would certainly be climatologically unprecedented for a storm to reach category five at that location and time of year... but then again, it's not exactly following the norms as it is. This track is much more like a late August or early September track. I can't say I personally would expect such extreme intensity, but conditions don't really seem to be prohibitive for further explosive development, perhaps even to that point... so I say, for such a rare opportunity to re-write some Atlantic climatology records, go for it, Gonzalo.

[CrazyC83]

There has never been a Cat 5 in October outside of the Caribbean. All the known late season Cat 5's (1846, 1924, Nov 1932, Hattie, Mitch, Wilma) reached such intensity in the western Caribbean.

[EquusStorm]

Exactly. And there have been few category five storms in ANY season in this area of the Atlantic, outside of the Bahamas or off the southeast coast of Florida. Some, yes, but not many.

[CrazyC83]

With no scheduled advisory until 11 pm, I wonder if we will get a TCU or special advisory?

[JahJa]

btw, if anyone is interested in local news in Bermuda check out http://www.bernews.com they are usually pretty good and they have already started a live blog with regard to the hurricane.