Texas Fall-2014

[Portastorm]

:uarrow: Doesn't a costal low take away moisture from North Texas and leave us dry?

It can ... but in this instance, the frontal boundary and some upper level energy will certainly impact your part of the state prior to any coastal low developing.

[srainhoutx]

:uarrow: Doesn't a costal low take away moisture from North Texas and leave us dry?

With a SW flow off the Pacific and a nice tap of deep tropical moisture from the remnants of Vance all the way back to SE of Hawaii at the mid/upper levels streaming NE, I feel fairly confident everyone across Texas will see some beneficial rainfall.

[Ntxw]

#SubtropicalJet

[aggiecutter]

Freeze Warning
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
429 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

...BECOMING WINDY BY LATE MORNING FOR THE FOUR STATE AREA LASTING
UNTIL AROUND SUNSET...THEN AFTER WINDS ABATE TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL WITH A FREEZE LATE TONIGHT UNTIL 8 TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY.

.COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE REGION RESULTING IN
FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR
AND NORTH TO INCLUDE SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST TEXAS
AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS.

ARZ050-051-059-070-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-108>112-312100-
/O.NEW.KSHV.FZ.W.0004.141101T0800Z-141101T1400Z/
/O.CON.KSHV.LW.Y.0045.141031T1600Z-141101T0000Z/
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-MILLER-MCCURTAIN-RED RIVER-BOWIE-
FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE QUEEN...NASHVILLE...ASHDOWN...
TEXARKANA...IDABEL...CLARKSVILLE...MT VERNON...MT PLEASANT...
PITTSBURG...DAINGERFIELD...ATLANTA
429 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

[aggiecutter]

Bad news for upcoming winter: Warm patch of water in GOA has been replaced by a cold patch. Lets see if the trend continues.

[veedub63]

Bad news for upcoming winter: Warm patch of water in GOA has been replaced by a cold patch. Lets see if the trend continues.

Is this bad news because you were hoping for cold and snowy OR is this bad news because you were hoping for sunny and warm? The vagueness of the statement left me confused.

[weatherdude1108]

Bad news for upcoming winter: Warm patch of water in GOA has been replaced by a cold patch. Lets see if the trend continues.

Is this bad news because you were hoping for cold and snowy OR is this bad news because you were hoping for sunny and warm? The vagueness of the statement left me confused.

I had that question also(?). Not sure how to decipher it.

[srainhoutx]

Bad news for upcoming winter: Warm patch of water in GOA has been replaced by a cold patch. Lets see if the trend continues.

In a Nina year, that would be a drier solution for Winter across our Region. Typically we see the N Pacific cool when El Nino develops and our source Regions of NW Alaska/Western Canada should allow for much stronger and deeper cold intrusions E of the Rockies. The Sub tropical jet will be the driver of our precipitation this year and chances of marginal temperature as we experienced last year should be much 'chillier'.

[Portastorm]

Agreed! Also, the SST anomalies in the North Pacific are not the only "driver" of our upcoming winter like they were last winter. While some of those north central Pacific SSTs are cooling there remains an extremely warm ribbon of warm ocean water along the West Coast. This coming season we'll have an active southern jet and a more persistant negative AO and NAO/Greenland block. The cold will be coming at us from multiple directions (NW and NE). And those upper lows which will cross Texas west to east will entrain cold air underneath them.

[TheProfessor]

I can't post a image right now, but the NWS FWD has the low going through the Panhandle in west Texas, and if it were winter time, that kind of path would usually lead to winter weather for North and Central Texas unless there was a lack of moisture or if it made a sharp Northeast turn. Is this what you guys meant by pay attention to what happens now?

[gboudx]

This is the image Professor is referring to. I didn't save it, only copied the URL straight from the NWS so expect it to change at some point.

[Portastorm]

Generally speaking, yes that is what I meant. We're going to be seeing a good inflow of Pacific moisture, upper level lows ... some will stay intact and some will shear out. Those that shear out often transfer energy into developing coastal lows. And we'll have cold, Polar air moving north to south and into these cold, deep troughs. I personally wouldn't be surprised to see next week's pattern repeated fairly often this winter.

[Ntxw]

Lets take this and call it a day

[dhweather]

Lets take this and call it a day

AMEN!


Bombogenesis - that is an awesome word ntxw, I love it!

[weatherdude1108]

This forecast brings back October '98 memories.
My brother in San Antonio said that Steve Brown, long-time tv weatherman down there just talked bout '98 and said gulf water temp was 9 degrees warmer back in '98, and that 1 degree equals 5% more moisture in the air. Anyway, still looking UP! These kinds of setups tend to fill up lakes and aquifers. The following is from Bob Rose's blog today (Friday):

The developing trough of low pressure over the southwestern US is expected to pull considerable moisture into Texas off the Gulf of Mexico beginning late Monday. Meanwhile, considerable middle and high-level moisture associated with eastern Pacific tropical storm Vance will also be drawn north into Texas by the same upper trough. The result will be an unstable and nearly saturated atmosphere, causing the development of widespread showers and thunderstorms. A cold front pushing east out of West Texas is forecast to slow down over the Hill Country late Tuesday into Wednesday. The front has the potential to become the focus for moderate to heavy rain. Today's solutions call for the cold front to be over the Hill Country next Tuesday and Tuesday night, shifting east to Central Texas on Wednesday and the coastal plains region on Thursday. The front is forecast to weaken Thursday while light to moderate rains continue across the entire region. Some of today's solutions indicate rain showers will continue into early Friday before the trough of low pressure finally exits to the east.

Widespread rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches appears likely with next week's rain event, but I'll caution these forecasted totals could go higher depending on the amount of moisture flowing north from tropical storm Vance and the speed of the cold front. We'll get a better handle of the amount of rain expected by late Sunday as we get closer to event.

Friday afternoon's National Weather Service 7-day rainfall forecast, for the period from this evening through next Friday, evening, calls for totals of 4 to 6 inches occurring across the eastern Hill Country and much of Central Texas:

Historically speaking, next week's rain event looks somewhat similar to previous fall heavy rain events occurring across Central and South during October 1994, October 1998, October 2002 and October 2006. Each of these rain events included a trough of low pressure over the southwestern US, a slow-moving cold front and the remnants of an eastern Pacific tropical cyclone.

http://www.lcra.org/water/river-and-wea ... ather.aspx

[Ntxw]

39F so far this morning, first sub 40 temperature of the season to kick off November. Any memories of summer is long gone, winter is just around the corner. Don't forget to change your clocks tonight.

[TheProfessor]

I was really hoping for the 5+ inches of rain WPC was predicting earlier, hopefully the models will trend wetter again.

[Ntxw]

A little late on the convo, but for those of you worrying about SST's, the warmth around Alaska isn't going away it's solidy +PDO signature. Just the warm tongue into the GOA is being replaced by a cold tongue by El Nino which further means the Nino will control the winter. Like Srain said if we had a La Nina or even a strong Nino the story would be different but we don't. Take a look at 1977-1978 DJF (that is a top SST analog I can find).



CFSv2 says Portastorm's forecast kicks off cold (below average) for November and stays cold right through for the state through 45 days

[TeamPlayersBlue]

#SubtropicalJet


Heeeee'sssss baaaaacckkkkkk

[Ptarmigan]

A little late on the convo, but for those of you worrying about SST's, the warmth around Alaska isn't going away it's solidy +PDO signature. Just the warm tongue into the GOA is being replaced by a cold tongue by El Nino which further means the Nino will control the winter. Like Srain said if we had a La Nina or even a strong Nino the story would be different but we don't. Take a look at 1977-1978 DJF (that is a top SST analog I can find).



CFSv2 says Portastorm's forecast kicks off cold (below average) for November and stays cold right through for the state through 45 days

I have seen warm Northeast Pacific in both cool and warm PDO. Usually when there is El Nino, it is cooler, but not always. Also, I have seen negative East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) when the Northeast Pacific is cool like in February 1989. The warm Northeast Pacific was a factor for last winter for being cold.