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gboudx wrote:https://www.facebook.com/wfaa.steve.mccauley/photos/a.304333909588562.71277.301993833155903/879661982055749/?type=1&relevant_count=1
Steve McCauley's Stat Method rejects the euros heavy dump of snow for this weekend.
Big changes on the way!
Major upper air pattern shift resulting in a surge of very cold arctic air. To give an idea of the temperature change with this front Denver this afternoon was 16 with moderate snow behind the boundary while Gage, OK was 86. Front has roared into the panhandle where Dumas, TX has fallen to 40 with N winds gusting to 52mph and a wind chill of 27 while Childress, TX is 73.
Front will plow across the state overnight with cold air pouring southward. Front will blast off the coast by Tuesday afternoon with temperatures tumbling from the mid 70’s ahead of the boundary into the lower 50’s behind the boundary. Strong cold air advection and falling temperatures along with gusty winds will drop wind chills into the 40’s by Tuesday afternoon. This will certainly be a shock given the warmth today. Moisture looks fairly meager ahead of the boundary, but just enough may be in place to produce a thin band of showers. Front should reach CLL around 900am, metro Houston around 1100am and off the coast by early afternoon. North winds will increase into the 20-30mph range behind the boundary. For those that have lived here long enough….this will classify as a “blue norther”.
Still looking at a period of weak overrunning low Wednesday which may keep some clouds over the region and hold daytime highs in the 40’s to near 50 along the coast on Wednesday.
Polar high anchors over the plains with bitter cold air mass for November standards. Temperatures across the plains will run as much as 25-35 degrees below normal for daytime highs. For example OKC will have a high on Thursday of only near 40 when the normal high is 65. To give an idea of the historic standing of this cold outbreak: Minneapolis, MN is currently forecast to go 13 days straight below freezing for daytime highs, with the previous record being 16 days all the way back in 1880.
Friday Morning:
Given the gravity of the incoming air mass and the tendency for model guidance to under forecast the intensity of cold arctic air masses a potential killing freeze is appearing more likely for Friday morning. With polar high pressure building overhead Thursday night and skies clearing and winds becoming light, temperatures will radiate toward the dewpoint. Dewpoints will likely bottom out in the 20’s on Thursday afternoon and latest GFS guidance is now showing 32 for IAH, 26 for Conroe, and 29 for CLL for Friday morning. Given the colder and colder guidance a widespread freeze along and north of I-10 is starting to become possible for Friday. In fact guidance is even suggesting a freeze north of HWY 105 for Thursday morning. A freeze watch and warning will likely be needed for parts of the area possibly Thursday morning and for a larger part of the area Friday morning.
Take the opportunity on Tuesday to prepare for the cold weather including the needed freeze protections for the first freeze of the winter.
Weekend:
Fast moving yet potent upper air disturbance will come crashing into the cold air mass from the west. Air mass will be unable to modify much with moisture pouring into the surface cold dome. Overrunning clouds will rapidly increase early Saturday with rain developing and spreading across the region Saturday night into Sunday. Highs may be hard pressed to warm much in the 50’s on Saturday as clouds increase from morning lows in the 30’s. Air mass will saturate from top down during the day and thickness profiles and dewpoints suggest all liquid precipitation across SE TX for Saturday night. ECMWF and CMC are the most aggressive model guidance with rain chances at the moment and will lean toward those solutions with support from CPC discussions. Think guidance is too warm on Sunday with coastal low moving across the NW Gulf toward LA coast and clouds, rain, fog over SE TX. GFS is showing a high of 68 at IAH, but I am not sure if we will be anywhere close to that number unless a warm front attempts to move inland.
ronyan wrote:somethingfunny wrote:Is the front speeding up like normal? I had been hearing 6am FROPA and now I'm reading 3am. If you're working a late shift or something and you'll be away from home until 2am, I would be wary of the front timing and being the heavy coat just in case.
When that front gets here, well know it. Windchill may be in the 20s by sunrise.
According to my admittedly unscientific measurements, the front has progressed South about 200 mi in the past 6 hours and is located near Dalhart, TX. This would put it in Dallas metro between 1-2am, faster if the front is speeding up.
On second thought this only factors in the straight South component of movement so 3am may be a good estimate for Dallas as it is further East.
iorange55 wrote:Fox 4's Evan Andrews on those crazy weather "enthusiasts"
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