Texas Winter 2014-2015

[gatorcane]

Well the super long-range GFS continues to advertise the pattern shift with arctic air from Canada that begins to plunge south by the end-of-the-month. Of course looking at a 384 hour temperature map is like grasping at straws!

[Tireman4]

I'm back for one day and I got the Euro to stop forecasting snow for the TX panhandle & Oklahoma in a single run! Let the heat begin... 00Z Euro now has some snow in central/northern Arkansas around the 19th, but no significant cold for TX through the 23rd.

Don't you have something better to do ... like a nice 30-mile bike ride or Christmas shopping or something?! Leave the weather alone!

I knew his return would only mean warmth and bad things.

C'mon gang, we have to do something about the longer-range models. The PWC is hard at work already to bring snow, ice, and frosty goodness to Texas and wxman57's house.

Sir, I can get a snow maker and put some in his yard if you like...he he he

[gboudx]

Steve McCauley:

No, no,no,no,no ! Latest upper-air data set shows a relatively strong cap moving northward out of Mexico headed for north Texas!! It has already moved over Del Rio as it lifts to the north. We do NOT need this ... bad bad timing.
The latest Texas Tech model - which yesterday showed a squall line of storms moving through our area on Sunday afternoon/evening - has spotted the cap and now completely dismisses the possibility of a squall line for us.
Now, this could all be an overreaction by the models. Whenever they see a cap moving in, they have a difficult time determining just how strong it will be by the time it gets here. We often get very little data out of Mexico, so we are seldom sure just how strong and what the impact will be of these caps coming off the high plateaus down there.
Stay tuned...perhaps it is just a computer model hiccup. The math has been so consistent up until this point !

[srainhoutx]

While it is a long way out, the 12Z parallel GFS is suggesting a monster Winter Storm around Christmas with a slow developing NW Gulf Coastal Low and a secondary storm dropping S from Central Canada ushering in a 1050mb Arctic High that puts most of the Eastern 2/3rds of North America in the deep freeze as New Years Eve approaches.

[orangeblood]

While it is a long way out, the 12Z parallel GFS is suggesting a monster Winter Storm around Christmas with a slow developing NW Gulf Coastal Low and a secondary storm dropping S from Central Canada ushering in a 1050mb Arctic High that puts most of the Eastern 2/3rds of North America in the deep freeze as New Years Eve approaches.

Noticed that and the latest CFSv2 is going extreme cold starting just after Christmas lasting 3-4 weeks....shows coldest anomalies centered directly across the southern plains (one model even has some 20-25F below normal over a 5-10 day period during the coldest time of year, 2nd week in January).

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I dont see that on the pgfs but i trust you!

[gatorcane]

I'm back for one day and I got the Euro to stop forecasting snow for the TX panhandle & Oklahoma in a single run! Let the heat begin... 00Z Euro now has some snow in central/northern Arkansas around the 19th, but no significant cold for TX through the 23rd.

12Z Euro similar to the 00Z with no significant cold for TX through 10 days.

[dhweather]

Steve McCauley:

No, no,no,no,no ! Latest upper-air data set shows a relatively strong cap moving northward out of Mexico headed for north Texas!! It has already moved over Del Rio as it lifts to the north. We do NOT need this ... bad bad timing.
The latest Texas Tech model - which yesterday showed a squall line of storms moving through our area on Sunday afternoon/evening - has spotted the cap and now completely dismisses the possibility of a squall line for us.
Now, this could all be an overreaction by the models. Whenever they see a cap moving in, they have a difficult time determining just how strong it will be by the time it gets here. We often get very little data out of Mexico, so we are seldom sure just how strong and what the impact will be of these caps coming off the high plateaus down there.
Stay tuned...perhaps it is just a computer model hiccup. The math has been so consistent up until this point !

Shock and awe.

Every friggin time.

[Rgv20]

12zGFS Ensemble Means is showing a 500mb low tracking south into Texas with Rain being the main precipitation just before Christmas Holiday..12zECMWF is way slower with the low at the same time frame hanging it back south of Arizona (Known bias of the ECMWF) but the 0zECMWF Ensemble Means are nearly identical with the 12zGFS Ensemble Mean. Will see how much cold air is at that time but at the very least Rain is in the offering for much of Texas!

12zGFS Ensemble Mean 500mb Anomaly forecast for December 23.

[orangeblood]

Most every models Ensemble Mean are in agreement now that we will see much colder pattern change, occurring shortly after Christmas. Something that has been discussed on here for a few weeks now and we're finally seeing model agreement....

Euro ENS



Canadian ENS



GFS ENS

[asd123]

Most every models Ensemble Mean are in agreement now that we will see much colder pattern change, occurring shortly after Christmas. Something that has been discussed on here for a few weeks now and we're finally seeing model agreement....

Euro ENS

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/201 ... mer_61.png

Canadian ENS

http://models.weatherbell.com/gefs/2014 ... mer_61.png

GFS ENS

http://models.weatherbell.com/gefs/2014 ... mer_61.png

Looking at the GFS, its ensemble, and other models' ensembles I too do see a pattern change beyond 12 days. Funniest thing is, how can this pattern change happen be forecasted with the teleconnections forecasted to be hostile for at least 2 weeks?

[orangeblood]

To me, it appears to be that the extremely cold air over Siberia is forecast to flood the northwest Pacific and overwhelm the Pacific pattern...this will intensify the Pacific jet and Aleutian Low, pumping the ridge into Alaska with downstream implications into our neighborhood

[asd123]

:uarrow: To me, it appears to be that the extremely cold air over Siberia is forecast to flood the northwest Pacific and overwhelm the Pacific pattern...this will intensify the Pacific jet and Aleutian Low, pumping the ridge into Alaska with downstream implications into our neighborhood

Yeah but with the hostile NAO AO, will that cold air plunge south into Texas and Florida? Only the PNA is cooperating, and without the AO and NAO, I don't think much will happen with that cold air in Texas and Florida.

[Portastorm]

Heh, our friend Rgv20 is going to like the late part of the 18z GFS op run. Shows sleet or freezing rain in parts of the Valley at 348 hours.

[asd123]

Heh, our friend Rgv20 is going to like the late part of the 18z GFS op run. Shows sleet or freezing rain in parts of the Valley at 348 hours.

Yeah it will make for a great discussion; bitterly cold forecast from the GFS, yet hostile teleconnections?

[Portastorm]

Heh, our friend Rgv20 is going to like the late part of the 18z GFS op run. Shows sleet or freezing rain in parts of the Valley at 348 hours.

Yeah it will make for a great discussion; bitterly cold forecast from the GFS, yet hostile teleconnections?

I understand what you're saying and agree that the current progged teleconnections don't quite add up. But when just about every well-known nationally followed pro met online believes we'll see big changes late month and now the ensembles and even operational models are following suit, how can you dismiss that? Something has to give.

[asd123]

Heh, our friend Rgv20 is going to like the late part of the 18z GFS op run. Shows sleet or freezing rain in parts of the Valley at 348 hours.

Yeah it will make for a great discussion; bitterly cold forecast from the GFS, yet hostile teleconnections?

I understand what you're saying and agree that the current progged teleconnections don't quite add up. But when just about every well-known nationally followed pro met online believes we'll see big changes late month and now the ensembles and even operational models are following suit, how can you dismiss that? Something has to give.

I absolutely don't dismiss what the pro mets and the ensembles and models (especially 18z GFS ) I personally see the models and ensembles are forecasting a shift towards colder weather. What I completely don't understand is why the teleconnections are so hostile towards cold for the South, Southeast, and Florida, yet the models and ensembles are forecasting cold.

[Ntxw]

Both Euro ENS and GEFS show massive blocking across Alaska and into NW Canada as we pass Christmas. It's primed for Arctic discharge. Shades of 1978 anyone? Meh December, flipped 180 as the calendar turned to January.

[gatorcane]

GFS at 372 hours and look at that Arctic blast diving south. Most of the United States is at or below freezing if this verifies with -20s just north of the border over Southern Canada It's long-range but the past several runs have shown this arctic blast. As others have noted, these types of runs could mean that there is going to be a pattern shift come the end-of-the-month. Details will be fine-tuned as we get closer to this event.

[Rgv20]

Heh, our friend Rgv20 is going to like the late part of the 18z GFS op run. Shows sleet or freezing rain in parts of the Valley at 348 hours.

I LOVE it!!