Texas Winter 2014-2015

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SouthernMet
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#1501 Postby SouthernMet » Sat Dec 27, 2014 11:41 am

Moderate precip has dropped Graham down to 32.

Rain/Sleet/Snow the latest PGFS has ALOT of QPF for tx, 3"+ for DFW.
Last edited by SouthernMet on Sat Dec 27, 2014 11:46 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#1502 Postby Portastorm » Sat Dec 27, 2014 11:42 am

:uarrow:

Thanks for the report from Wichita Falls and photo! Good stuff and a nice surprise. :wink:
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#1503 Postby iorange55 » Sat Dec 27, 2014 11:47 am

But wait, with how warm it's been lately, how did all that snow stick on the ground up there in Wichita Falls?

:wink: :wink: :wink:
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VCXZ

#1504 Postby orangeblood » Sat Dec 27, 2014 11:48 am

Ralph's Weather wrote:
ndale wrote::uarrow: If I can make up a phrase if they "under" predicted this event and they "under" predict the arctic event, what will the real outcome be, just speculating.

Last week some models showed highs in the 20s and good snow totals across much of Texas. I think that potential is still in the cards as I expect the cold to be much more intense than shown by the models and I still do not buy into the idea of the low cutting off and sitting over CA for days as nothing has moved that slowly this year.


At this point, I actually think the best case is that the ULL actually comes out slower and ejects out when the new Arctic High is poised to come down late next week...much more conducive for winter weather with a fresh new HP to our north, bringing in cold advection from the north as opposed to the east/southeast if the low were to come out sooner. Last night's European actually has the slower scenario.

Ice Storm midweek and a Snow Storm next weekend....it's time for Winter to get crankin', this December has been incredible warm and non-eventful that's for sure!!!
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#1505 Postby GRAYSONCO.WX » Sat Dec 27, 2014 11:50 am

It appears precipitation may be increasing west of I-35.
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#1506 Postby TheProfessor » Sat Dec 27, 2014 11:54 am

Weather bug has my area at 38 degrees and a Dew point at 33, could wet bulbing occur after rain begins to fall?
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#1507 Postby Texas Snowman » Sat Dec 27, 2014 12:11 pm

It appears the area east of Wichita Falls is getting buried at the moment as per radar returns...
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#1508 Postby SouthernMet » Sat Dec 27, 2014 12:16 pm

Fort Worth nws issues Winter Weather Advisory for Jack, Young, Montague & Stephens counties.
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#1509 Postby ndale » Sat Dec 27, 2014 12:19 pm

Looks like we will just have a cold drizzle and light rain here. The wintry weather is well to our northwest and heavier rains are to our east toward Houston. Our rain is moving in from the soutwest and don't see anything heavy brewing out there.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#1510 Postby Portastorm » Sat Dec 27, 2014 12:22 pm

Yet another example on how computer models often seem to mishandle wintry precip situations ... EWX is now mentioning a chance of snow showers early tomorrow morning in portions of Val Verde County. Maybe our friend hriverajr will get up early and take a photo?! Actually the snow potential (at the moment) is for the northwestern part of the county.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#1511 Postby Ntxwx » Sat Dec 27, 2014 12:24 pm

For Thursday is it really a possible scenario that the rain, or whatever precip falls will warm the sfc temps? Does anyone see that happening? All the models either appear to show that, or appear to be completely lost.
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#1512 Postby Ralph's Weather » Sat Dec 27, 2014 12:25 pm

Glad I got my new weather station up yesterday. The temp is holding around 45 here with .18" of rain, it was 61 this morning. Looks like my family timed it perfectly, they are heading to northern NM and they left yesterday to Amarillo and just saw a bit of snow on the ground and it looks like their drive today is clear although cold. I am jealous of the snow they have up there and the snow coming for them next week. Hope they can make it home without an ice storm next week.
The scenario mentioned by orangeblood is an interesting one. A bit of energy ejecting just behind the next front then the rest being picked up by the next one could pose some very interesting conditions. However it plays out we are in for a cold stormy period over the next couple weeks and maybe further out than that.
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#1513 Postby Tammie » Sat Dec 27, 2014 12:26 pm

Looks like a Denton is going to miss out. Seems to be training just west of us and not much movement to the east.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#1514 Postby ndale » Sat Dec 27, 2014 12:28 pm

Ntxwx wrote:For Thursday is it really a possible scenario that the rain, or whatever precip falls will warm the sfc temps? Does anyone see that happening? All the models either appear to show that, or appear to be completely lost.


If I remember correctly a day or so ago EWX mentioned they thought the rain at the middle of the week would keep temps here (Austin) just above freezing. I assume they were following the model guidance for that but am not sure.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#1515 Postby hriverajr » Sat Dec 27, 2014 12:30 pm

Portastorm wrote:Yet another example on how computer models often seem to mishandle wintry precip situations ... EWX is now mentioning a chance of snow showers early tomorrow morning in portions of Val Verde County. Maybe our friend hriverajr will get up early and take a photo?! Actually the snow potential (at the moment) is for the northwestern part of the county.


I saw that Portastorm.. Of course I will take pictures. Would be a bit of a minor miracle hehe
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#1516 Postby TheProfessor » Sat Dec 27, 2014 12:38 pm

NWS FWD is now showing dew points at 32 degrees in Denton County
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#1517 Postby PauleinHouston » Sat Dec 27, 2014 12:45 pm

Amazing how the models have once again dropped the ball on what's happening around the great State of Texas (and of course, our neighbors as well).

Daughter is in school at UT Austin and I remember in Jan/Feb of this year, there were at least 3-4 events where no winter precip at all was forecast...each time was a bust and within 24-36 hours of the event and school was either delayed or cancelled (Porta, I'm sure you remember that). Interesting that since the beginning of '13-'14 winter, the "door" (so to speak) has been opened a bit farther South than previous years and the models have had a consistent issue 2-5 days out with resolving the upcoming events. These troughs appear to be digging/carving deeper South than before. I think the "door" was opened with the front that arrived the evening before XMas eve...29.557" Hg at my station...been a while since I've seen that!

The upcoming "event", IMHO, will be a surprise to all as well. Just my $.02 worth!
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#1518 Postby aggiecutter » Sat Dec 27, 2014 12:47 pm

Portastorm wrote:Yet another example on how computer models often seem to mishandle wintry precip situations ... EWX is now mentioning a chance of snow showers early tomorrow morning in portions of Val Verde County. Maybe our friend hriverajr will get up early and take a photo?! Actually the snow potential (at the moment) is for the northwestern part of the county.



You're right. This is what I woke up to early this morning:

Image
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#1519 Postby BrokenGlassRepublicn » Sat Dec 27, 2014 12:48 pm

My weather station in Richardson reads 42 degrees with a dewpoint of 36.
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#1520 Postby TheProfessor » Sat Dec 27, 2014 12:52 pm

:uarrow: It is now 37 degrees here, but it seems as if the precip is begging to weaken. If we were able to get some heavy rain it may have dropped are temperatures at least close to freezing.
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