Texas Winter 2014-2015
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- SouthernMet
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015
Moderate precip has dropped Graham down to 32.
Rain/Sleet/Snow the latest PGFS has ALOT of QPF for tx, 3"+ for DFW.
Rain/Sleet/Snow the latest PGFS has ALOT of QPF for tx, 3"+ for DFW.
Last edited by SouthernMet on Sat Dec 27, 2014 11:46 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Nothing that SouthernMet posts, is an official forecast,nor does it reflect views of STORM2K.. SouthernMet is just adding to the great discussions on STORM2K.. Refer to NWS for official forecasts.
- Portastorm
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015
But wait, with how warm it's been lately, how did all that snow stick on the ground up there in Wichita Falls?




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VCXZ
Ralph's Weather wrote:ndale wrote::uarrow: If I can make up a phrase if they "under" predicted this event and they "under" predict the arctic event, what will the real outcome be, just speculating.
Last week some models showed highs in the 20s and good snow totals across much of Texas. I think that potential is still in the cards as I expect the cold to be much more intense than shown by the models and I still do not buy into the idea of the low cutting off and sitting over CA for days as nothing has moved that slowly this year.
At this point, I actually think the best case is that the ULL actually comes out slower and ejects out when the new Arctic High is poised to come down late next week...much more conducive for winter weather with a fresh new HP to our north, bringing in cold advection from the north as opposed to the east/southeast if the low were to come out sooner. Last night's European actually has the slower scenario.
Ice Storm midweek and a Snow Storm next weekend....it's time for Winter to get crankin', this December has been incredible warm and non-eventful that's for sure!!!
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- TheProfessor
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- Texas Snowman
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It appears the area east of Wichita Falls is getting buried at the moment as per radar returns...
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The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- SouthernMet
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015
Fort Worth nws issues Winter Weather Advisory for Jack, Young, Montague & Stephens counties.
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Nothing that SouthernMet posts, is an official forecast,nor does it reflect views of STORM2K.. SouthernMet is just adding to the great discussions on STORM2K.. Refer to NWS for official forecasts.
Looks like we will just have a cold drizzle and light rain here. The wintry weather is well to our northwest and heavier rains are to our east toward Houston. Our rain is moving in from the soutwest and don't see anything heavy brewing out there.
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- Portastorm
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015
Yet another example on how computer models often seem to mishandle wintry precip situations ... EWX is now mentioning a chance of snow showers early tomorrow morning in portions of Val Verde County. Maybe our friend hriverajr will get up early and take a photo?! Actually the snow potential (at the moment) is for the northwestern part of the county.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015
For Thursday is it really a possible scenario that the rain, or whatever precip falls will warm the sfc temps? Does anyone see that happening? All the models either appear to show that, or appear to be completely lost.
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Glad I got my new weather station up yesterday. The temp is holding around 45 here with .18" of rain, it was 61 this morning. Looks like my family timed it perfectly, they are heading to northern NM and they left yesterday to Amarillo and just saw a bit of snow on the ground and it looks like their drive today is clear although cold. I am jealous of the snow they have up there and the snow coming for them next week. Hope they can make it home without an ice storm next week.
The scenario mentioned by orangeblood is an interesting one. A bit of energy ejecting just behind the next front then the rest being picked up by the next one could pose some very interesting conditions. However it plays out we are in for a cold stormy period over the next couple weeks and maybe further out than that.
The scenario mentioned by orangeblood is an interesting one. A bit of energy ejecting just behind the next front then the rest being picked up by the next one could pose some very interesting conditions. However it plays out we are in for a cold stormy period over the next couple weeks and maybe further out than that.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015
Ntxwx wrote:For Thursday is it really a possible scenario that the rain, or whatever precip falls will warm the sfc temps? Does anyone see that happening? All the models either appear to show that, or appear to be completely lost.
If I remember correctly a day or so ago EWX mentioned they thought the rain at the middle of the week would keep temps here (Austin) just above freezing. I assume they were following the model guidance for that but am not sure.
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Any opinions stated are those of an amateur, please take with several grains of salt and for official forecast refer to the National Weather Service.
Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015
Portastorm wrote:Yet another example on how computer models often seem to mishandle wintry precip situations ... EWX is now mentioning a chance of snow showers early tomorrow morning in portions of Val Verde County. Maybe our friend hriverajr will get up early and take a photo?! Actually the snow potential (at the moment) is for the northwestern part of the county.
I saw that Portastorm.. Of course I will take pictures. Would be a bit of a minor miracle hehe
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- TheProfessor
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015
Amazing how the models have once again dropped the ball on what's happening around the great State of Texas (and of course, our neighbors as well).
Daughter is in school at UT Austin and I remember in Jan/Feb of this year, there were at least 3-4 events where no winter precip at all was forecast...each time was a bust and within 24-36 hours of the event and school was either delayed or cancelled (Porta, I'm sure you remember that). Interesting that since the beginning of '13-'14 winter, the "door" (so to speak) has been opened a bit farther South than previous years and the models have had a consistent issue 2-5 days out with resolving the upcoming events. These troughs appear to be digging/carving deeper South than before. I think the "door" was opened with the front that arrived the evening before XMas eve...29.557" Hg at my station...been a while since I've seen that!
The upcoming "event", IMHO, will be a surprise to all as well. Just my $.02 worth!
Daughter is in school at UT Austin and I remember in Jan/Feb of this year, there were at least 3-4 events where no winter precip at all was forecast...each time was a bust and within 24-36 hours of the event and school was either delayed or cancelled (Porta, I'm sure you remember that). Interesting that since the beginning of '13-'14 winter, the "door" (so to speak) has been opened a bit farther South than previous years and the models have had a consistent issue 2-5 days out with resolving the upcoming events. These troughs appear to be digging/carving deeper South than before. I think the "door" was opened with the front that arrived the evening before XMas eve...29.557" Hg at my station...been a while since I've seen that!
The upcoming "event", IMHO, will be a surprise to all as well. Just my $.02 worth!
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of this amateur poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015
Portastorm wrote:Yet another example on how computer models often seem to mishandle wintry precip situations ... EWX is now mentioning a chance of snow showers early tomorrow morning in portions of Val Verde County. Maybe our friend hriverajr will get up early and take a photo?! Actually the snow potential (at the moment) is for the northwestern part of the county.
You're right. This is what I woke up to early this morning:

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- TheProfessor
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An alumnus of The Ohio State University.
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