Texas Winter 2014-2015

[Portastorm]

I'm nothing if I am not a man of my word, wxman57. Here you go ... notice my new avatar for the next two weeks. (gulp).

I learned a thing or two about warm air advection and the computer models. Yes, I was wrong.

[SouthernMet]

RAP continues to show a band of precip moving through San Antonio/Austin 12-1 am
SREF shows onset of precip moving through at 6 am.....
RGEM continues this trend with light-moderate precip from midnight - noon with temps 26-29 around Austin metro.

Baja low moving, 2nd cold front moving, cloud ceilings lowering, all ingredients coming together atm for a pretty rough period starting after midnight tonight.

Fortunately** qpf totals are on the lower side, but EWX definitely needs to do something if trends continue in the next couple of hours.

[Portastorm]

RAP continues to show a band of precip moving through San Antonio/Austin 12-1 am
SREF shows onset of precip moving through at 6 am.....
RGEM continues this trend with light-moderate precip from midnight - noon with temps 26-29 around Austin metro.

Baja low moving, 2nd cold front moving, cloud ceilings lowering, all ingredients coming together atm for a pretty rough period starting after midnight tonight.

Fortunately** qpf totals are on the lower side, but EWX definitely needs to do something if trends continue in the next couple of hours.

Yep ... a private sector met buddy of mine (not wxman57) expressed frustration this morning to me about a lack of a Winter Storm Watch or Advisory for the overnight to lunchtime tomorrow period. We've had three days now of a "it might/it might not" forecast. He told me that if he provided forecasts like that consistently he'd be out of business.

[dhweather]

I swear, I would not lie to you 20 times in a row.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I swear, I would not lie to you 20 times in a row.


http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/e ... n_Pelt.png

She got a lot of people over here as well this morning. A lot of people were screaming ice and snow yesterday because the news said so. Of course being the believe it when I see it type of person I said dont get yalls hopes up. Even saw a DPW salt truck out yesterday

[dhweather]

Hey Porta, go ahead and add this to your signature:

LUCY LIED TO ME AGAIN !!!!!

[Portastorm]

Hey Porta, go ahead and add this to your signature:

LUCY LIED TO ME AGAIN !!!!!

Nah, she really didn't. I wasn't expecting wintry conditions in Austin overnight. To me, Lucy has always been the "promise" of a winter weather event by the computer models. They've done a good job at least here in Austin within the last 24 hours. So, IMO, Lucy was telling the truth and I just didn't believe her!

However, some of the models are showing wintry precip in Austin tonight into tomorrow morning ... if that doesn't happen, then I will say that Lucy pulled another one on us.

[weatherdude1108]

RAP continues to show a band of precip moving through San Antonio/Austin 12-1 am
SREF shows onset of precip moving through at 6 am.....
RGEM continues this trend with light-moderate precip from midnight - noon with temps 26-29 around Austin metro.

Baja low moving, 2nd cold front moving, cloud ceilings lowering, all ingredients coming together atm for a pretty rough period starting after midnight tonight.

Fortunately** qpf totals are on the lower side, but EWX definitely needs to do something if trends continue in the next couple of hours.

Yep ... a private sector met buddy of mine (not wxman57) expressed frustration this morning to me about a lack of a Winter Storm Watch or Advisory for the overnight to lunchtime tomorrow period. We've had three days now of a "it might/it might not" forecast. He told me that if he provided forecasts like that consistently he'd be out of business.

Looks like they are waiting until the absolute last minute. I know there is probably a certain degree of difficulty with predicting when and where the Arctic air and Baja low will coincide. Timing and temperatures have to be perfect. But, it is frustrating when people are making plans to do things and need to know with confidence if they should travel or not. In my case, I have people that are supposed to come to a birthday party tomorrow afternoon, but they are in "Wait and See" mode because of the confusing forecasts of the last couple days. I'm hoping EWX will know with more certainty in the next couple hours what is likely to happen tonight and Saturday morning with whatever data they have at their fingertips.

[CentralTxAggie]

Hey Porta, go ahead and add this to your signature:

LUCY LIED TO ME AGAIN !!!!!

Nah, she really didn't. I wasn't expecting wintry conditions in Austin overnight. To me, Lucy has always been the "promise" of a winter weather event by the computer models. They've done a good job at least here in Austin within the last 24 hours. So, IMO, Lucy was telling the truth and I just didn't believe her!

However, some of the models are showing wintry precip in Austin tonight into tomorrow morning ... if that doesn't happen, then I will say that Lucy pulled another one on us.

Seeing reports of sleet on Twitter in the Austin area....does that count Porta?

[Portastorm]

Yeah I just saw some of those reports as well ... thanks to your post. Well, the official forecast today is for a rain/sleet mix so it shouldn't surprise folks too much.

Things should get more interesting around here by mid evening.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The lack of Winter precip in Austin is staggering lol

[Portastorm]

The lack of Winter precip in Austin is staggering lol

Allow me to put this into perspective ... in the last 30 years, there has only been ONE time (February 2004) where Austin received more than an inch of snow.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Its La La Land, but I'll just leave these right here.....

[wxman57]

Look at the 500mb heights over Texas on those two maps above. "573" and "579" over central Texas (5730 and 5790 meters). That's HIGH! One rule of thumb that we (meteorologists) sometimes use here is that you look at the projected 500mb height, taking off the "5" and you get a fair estimate of the high temperature for that day. Therefore, "579" would equal a high of 79 degrees, "595" would be 95 degrees, etc. Of course, this rule of thumb won't work if Arctic air is at the surface, like today. It was my co-worker (the cold-mongerer) that pointed out how high the 500mb heights were across the southern U.S. compared to normal.

Given the above, I suspect that those two 500mb charts above suggest highs in the mid to upper 70s across Texas in 2 weeks.

[dhweather]

Wow, wxman57 has really been busy.......

[SouthernMet]

People should not be calling "bust" just yet, the main event was ALWAYS suppose to be tomorrow morning.

Imo unless things change, as of now, there is still a decent setup for freezing rain & maybe sleet after 2am through noon for Austin, Georgetown, Burnet & Kerrville areas especially.

[Lagreeneyes03]

Wow, wxman57 has really been busy.......


http://s10.postimg.org/ksw1h0wbt/2015_0 ... _07_am.png

Winter Cancel?

[wxman57]

Look at the 500mb heights over Texas on those two maps above. "573" and "579" over central Texas (5730 and 5790 meters). That's HIGH! One rule of thumb that we (meteorologists) sometimes use here is that you look at the projected 500mb height, taking off the "5" and you get a fair estimate of the high temperature for that day. Therefore, "579" would equal a high of 79 degrees, "595" would be 95 degrees, etc. Of course, this rule of thumb won't work if Arctic air is at the surface, like today. It was my co-worker (the cold-mongerer) that pointed out how high the 500mb heights were across the southern U.S. compared to normal.

Given the above, I suspect that those two 500mb charts above suggest highs in the mid to upper 70s across Texas in 2 weeks.

Yes, just as I'd suspected (hoped), the GFS is forecasting a significant warm-up starting next week and continuing through 16 days. Those upper 60s 6pm temperatures reflect a high in the low to mid 70s around 2-3pm each day. However, I don't care for that dive down to 42 on the last day.

I wouldn't say that winter is over, but it is looking like you may need to wait until February for the next winter weather event in central or NE Texas. Maybe very late January...

[dhweather]

Wow, wxman57 has really been busy.......


http://s10.postimg.org/ksw1h0wbt/2015_0 ... _07_am.png

Winter Cancel?

It's looking like the return of December in another week. Of course, models have HUGE errors that far out, but I do think it warms up.

[Lagreeneyes03]

Wow, wxman57 has really been busy.......


http://s10.postimg.org/ksw1h0wbt/2015_0 ... _07_am.png

Winter Cancel?

It's looking like the return of December in another week. Of course, models have HUGE errors that far out, but I do think it warms up.

I'll take it. Cold weather without snow or winter weather events is useless. Snow or Summer that's my motto!