I learned a thing or two about warm air advection and the computer models. Yes, I was wrong.

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SouthernMet wrote:RAP continues to show a band of precip moving through San Antonio/Austin 12-1 am
SREF shows onset of precip moving through at 6 am.....
RGEM continues this trend with light-moderate precip from midnight - noon with temps 26-29 around Austin metro.
Baja low moving, 2nd cold front moving, cloud ceilings lowering, all ingredients coming together atm for a pretty rough period starting after midnight tonight.
Fortunately** qpf totals are on the lower side, but EWX definitely needs to do something if trends continue in the next couple of hours.
dhweather wrote:I swear, I would not lie to you 20 times in a row.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/e ... n_Pelt.png
dhweather wrote:Hey Porta, go ahead and add this to your signature:
LUCY LIED TO ME AGAIN !!!!!
Portastorm wrote:SouthernMet wrote:RAP continues to show a band of precip moving through San Antonio/Austin 12-1 am
SREF shows onset of precip moving through at 6 am.....
RGEM continues this trend with light-moderate precip from midnight - noon with temps 26-29 around Austin metro.
Baja low moving, 2nd cold front moving, cloud ceilings lowering, all ingredients coming together atm for a pretty rough period starting after midnight tonight.
Fortunately** qpf totals are on the lower side, but EWX definitely needs to do something if trends continue in the next couple of hours.
Yep ... a private sector met buddy of mine (not wxman57) expressed frustration this morning to me about a lack of a Winter Storm Watch or Advisory for the overnight to lunchtime tomorrow period. We've had three days now of a "it might/it might not" forecast. He told me that if he provided forecasts like that consistently he'd be out of business.
Portastorm wrote:dhweather wrote:Hey Porta, go ahead and add this to your signature:
LUCY LIED TO ME AGAIN !!!!!
Nah, she really didn't. I wasn't expecting wintry conditions in Austin overnight. To me, Lucy has always been the "promise" of a winter weather event by the computer models. They've done a good job at least here in Austin within the last 24 hours. So, IMO, Lucy was telling the truth and I just didn't believe her!![]()
However, some of the models are showing wintry precip in Austin tonight into tomorrow morning ... if that doesn't happen, then I will say that Lucy pulled another one on us.
TeamPlayersBlue wrote:The lack of Winter precip in Austin is staggering lol
dhweather wrote:Wow, wxman57 has really been busy.......
http://s10.postimg.org/ksw1h0wbt/2015_0 ... _07_am.png
wxman57 wrote:Look at the 500mb heights over Texas on those two maps above. "573" and "579" over central Texas (5730 and 5790 meters). That's HIGH! One rule of thumb that we (meteorologists) sometimes use here is that you look at the projected 500mb height, taking off the "5" and you get a fair estimate of the high temperature for that day. Therefore, "579" would equal a high of 79 degrees, "595" would be 95 degrees, etc. Of course, this rule of thumb won't work if Arctic air is at the surface, like today. It was my co-worker (the cold-mongerer) that pointed out how high the 500mb heights were across the southern U.S. compared to normal.
Given the above, I suspect that those two 500mb charts above suggest highs in the mid to upper 70s across Texas in 2 weeks.
Lagreeneyes03 wrote:dhweather wrote:Wow, wxman57 has really been busy.......
http://s10.postimg.org/ksw1h0wbt/2015_0 ... _07_am.png
Winter Cancel?
dhweather wrote:Lagreeneyes03 wrote:dhweather wrote:Wow, wxman57 has really been busy.......
http://s10.postimg.org/ksw1h0wbt/2015_0 ... _07_am.png
Winter Cancel?
It's looking like the return of December in another week. Of course, models have HUGE errors that far out, but I do think it warms up.
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