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cycloneye wrote:What is the opinion of the peeps of the results so far of the recently upgraded GFS?
What I have seen so far has good marks for me. I want to see when Hurricane season comes how it does.Please,no more May phantoms.
RL3AO wrote:From my understanding some pretty big data assimilation changes are coming next year. That will be the big step forward.
TheStormExpert wrote::uarrow: Not necessarily true, back in early February of 2012 there was a short lived Invest from a low that moved North and East out of the W. Caribbean/GoM then across Florida. The NHC even highlighted it yellow for a little while.
gatorcane wrote:TheStormExpert wrote::uarrow: Not necessarily true, back in early February of 2012 there was a short lived Invest from a low that moved North and East out of the W. Caribbean/GoM then across Florida. The NHC even highlighted it yellow for a little while.
Yeah but in this case it looks like the low's origins is frontal according to both models. In the ECMWF case, it keeps it attached to the front but in the GFS case it seems to split off into it's own entity looking even subtropical. The ECMWF solution looks too deep. At any rate, I will go with the ECMWF on a more frontal depiction than what the GFS is showing. I posted new maps above that depict this.
gatorcane wrote:Well this low the 18Z GFS shows over Florida certainly looks like something that shouldn't be there for this time of year!![]()
A quick check against the 12Z ECMWF shows a low also, but it looks more winter-like than what the GFS is showing (though still a bit unusual to have something that deep that far south this time of year):
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