2015 Global model runs discussion
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- cycloneye
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2015 Global model runs discussion
All is set for the January 14 GFS upgrade. NHC has a wish list.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion=New upgrade to GFS on Jan 14
Since we are in typhoon season already, it's very exciting and can't wait to see how this performs once the upgrade is completed!
First test will be on our new TC 01W which develop yesterday...
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=76&t=117052
First test will be on our new TC 01W which develop yesterday...
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=76&t=117052
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion=New upgrade to GFS on Jan 14
Is the GFS upgrade already applied today? The Parallel GFS run isn't available anymore except for the operational one.
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- cycloneye
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion=New upgrade to GFS today
Waiting for the official confirmation that the upgrade has been completed to post it. This was the last statement issued in December23.
Effective on January 14, 2015, beginning with the 1200
Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) run, the National Centers for
Environmental Prediction (NCEP) will upgrade the GFS Analysis and
Forecast System
Effective on January 14, 2015, beginning with the 1200
Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) run, the National Centers for
Environmental Prediction (NCEP) will upgrade the GFS Analysis and
Forecast System
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- cycloneye
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Global model runs discussion
What is the opinion of the peeps of the results so far of the recently upgraded GFS?
What I have seen so far has good marks for me. I want to see when Hurricane season comes how it does.Please,no more May phantoms.
What I have seen so far has good marks for me. I want to see when Hurricane season comes how it does.Please,no more May phantoms.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion=GFS has been upgraded
Not that impressed with the upgraded GFS so far.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion=GFS has been upgraded
cycloneye wrote:What is the opinion of the peeps of the results so far of the recently upgraded GFS?
What I have seen so far has good marks for me. I want to see when Hurricane season comes how it does.Please,no more May phantoms.
Ok so far, it forecasted a typhoon out of Mekkhala which it did but still the same inconsistent different tracks and intensity...
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- cycloneye
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Re:
RL3AO wrote:From my understanding some pretty big data assimilation changes are coming next year. That will be the big step forward.
More tweaking coming on March 10.
Effective on or about March 10, 2015, beginning with the 1200
Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) run, the National Centers for
Environmental Prediction (NCEP) will add five new GFS model
output grids to NOAAPORT.
NCEP is working towards removing older legacy grids from
NOAAPORT. In 2013, NCEP solicited public feedback for removing
some Global Forecast System (GFS) model output.
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification ... legacy.txt
The 381 km Northern Hemisphere (grid #201) is specifically on the
docket to be removed as soon as the new grids are in the AWIPS
baseline but we are also interested in removing numerous others.
Another PNS will be issued to determine the feasibility of the
plan. Any product elimination is contingent on providing higher
resolution GFS model output on comparable or better grids to
those being removed. So in response NCEP will add five new GFS
model output grids to NOAAPORT.
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification ... aaport.htm
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- cycloneye
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion=GFS has been upgraded
It seems that GFS was the winner of the big nor'easter for NYC as the snow totals there were more low that what NAM and ECMWF had.
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- gatorcane
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Well this low the 18Z GFS shows over Florida certainly looks like something that shouldn't be there for this time of year!
A quick check against the 12Z ECMWF shows a low also, but it looks more winter-like than what the GFS is showing (though still a bit unusual to have something that deep that far south this time of year):
A quick check against the 12Z ECMWF shows a low also, but it looks more winter-like than what the GFS is showing (though still a bit unusual to have something that deep that far south this time of year):
Last edited by gatorcane on Sun Feb 01, 2015 10:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- TheStormExpert
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Not necessarily true, back in early February of 2012 there was a short lived Invest from a low that moved North and East out of the W. Caribbean/GoM then across Florida. The NHC even highlighted it yellow for a little while.
Also notice how the GFS and Euro each have a completely different 500mb pattern @ 240hrs. Some proof as to how the Euro has been doing poorly in the long range in the past week or so.
Also notice how the GFS and Euro each have a completely different 500mb pattern @ 240hrs. Some proof as to how the Euro has been doing poorly in the long range in the past week or so.
Last edited by TheStormExpert on Sun Feb 01, 2015 10:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- gatorcane
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Re:
TheStormExpert wrote::uarrow: Not necessarily true, back in early February of 2012 there was a short lived Invest from a low that moved North and East out of the W. Caribbean/GoM then across Florida. The NHC even highlighted it yellow for a little while.
Yeah but in this case it looks like the low's origins is frontal according to both models. In the ECMWF case, it keeps it attached to the front but in the GFS case it seems to split off into it's own entity looking even subtropical. The ECMWF solution looks too deep. At any rate, I will go with the ECMWF on a more frontal depiction than what the GFS is showing. I posted new maps above that depict this.
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- TheStormExpert
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Re: Re:
gatorcane wrote:TheStormExpert wrote::uarrow: Not necessarily true, back in early February of 2012 there was a short lived Invest from a low that moved North and East out of the W. Caribbean/GoM then across Florida. The NHC even highlighted it yellow for a little while.
Yeah but in this case it looks like the low's origins is frontal according to both models. In the ECMWF case, it keeps it attached to the front but in the GFS case it seems to split off into it's own entity looking even subtropical. The ECMWF solution looks too deep. At any rate, I will go with the ECMWF on a more frontal depiction than what the GFS is showing. I posted new maps above that depict this.
Yeah definitely something that you would expect to see in June.
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Re:
gatorcane wrote:Well this low the 18Z GFS shows over Florida certainly looks like something that shouldn't be there for this time of year!
A quick check against the 12Z ECMWF shows a low also, but it looks more winter-like than what the GFS is showing (though still a bit unusual to have something that deep that far south this time of year):
Very interesting Gatorcane. Just a note, always thought that the Accuweather long range to be based on GFS. But, I'm thinking that it may be a balance after your post. Their Feb 10 to Feb 12 long range forecasts very windy conditions here (27959 Nags Head) with sustained 33 to 62 winds for close to 48hrs. Needless to say it is a fantasy in either case which is good because those conditions would cause real damage here. The point is that their scenario is closer to the Euro than the GFS with their forecast.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion=GFS has been upgraded
Well since the upgrade and before the upgrade, GFS has been the most confusing and inconsistent model to follow...I kinda follow GFS more over my favorite EURO because it's runs get released more often (6 hour vs 12 hour).
New GFS...
*Pressure not align with system
*Each run is different, sometimes showing a strong system and the other a weak system back and forth...
*Track is mostly inconsistent...
The other models are consistent with their track and intensity especially EURO...
New GFS...
*Pressure not align with system
*Each run is different, sometimes showing a strong system and the other a weak system back and forth...
*Track is mostly inconsistent...
The other models are consistent with their track and intensity especially EURO...
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion=GFS has been upgraded
Quick follow up. Today high wind warning, coastal flood warnings, high surf advisories. Winds 30 to 55, 8 to 10 ft surf, 2 to 3 above tide. Actual low closer to euro than gfs. If not a blind squirell thing than kudos to the models. Maybe the one week models are getting better. Surprised.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion=GFS has been upgraded
12Z Euro has a storm heading north toward Louisiana
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