Texas Winter 2014-2015

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Re:

#5581 Postby Brent » Mon Feb 23, 2015 10:39 am

TheProfessor wrote:So I'm a bit confused here, we could now get snow on Wednesday too? Could that cause Wednesday's temps to be colder?


Several models since last night have had accumulating snow in N TX yes... its a pretty borderline setup on temps as modeled now, but it's a cold core upper low involved and well we know how those things and the models could just be eroding the arctic air too fast which they are also prone to do... FWD said in the AFD this morning there could be a period of all snow Wednesday morning but they were gonna wait til this storm cleared out to do more so I'm definitely intrigued.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#5582 Postby wxman57 » Mon Feb 23, 2015 10:43 am



I wasn't aware anyone was launching balloons in the D-FW area. That warm nose looks warmer than the models indicate.
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#5583 Postby TheProfessor » Mon Feb 23, 2015 10:44 am

:uarrow: So am I, possible snow on Wednesday, and then again on Friday? If that happened then this will past 2011 as the best winter weather week here in my books.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#5584 Postby TheProfessor » Mon Feb 23, 2015 10:45 am

wxman57 wrote:


I wasn't aware anyone was launching balloons in the D-FW area. That warm nose looks warmer than the models indicate.


Which is weird because I've been getting snow for a while now, though I do live north of the office so that could be why.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#5585 Postby wxman57 » Mon Feb 23, 2015 10:47 am

Sounding for Dallas area on Thursday indicates very cold air aloft. Tuesday night's event looks more questionable as far as snow (warm nose present but not as much as today).

Thursday:
Image
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Re:

#5586 Postby TrekkerCC » Mon Feb 23, 2015 10:50 am

TheProfessor wrote::uarrow: So am I, possible snow on Wednesday, and then again on Friday? If that happened then this will past 2011 as the best winter weather week here in my books.


It looks like according to the GGEM (and it is only one model), the best shot for snow would be Friday Night/Saturday Morning. So it might be more of a Saturday event (assuming it happens). Obviously, a lot can change from now until then.
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Re: Re:

#5587 Postby Ntxw » Mon Feb 23, 2015 10:53 am

Brent wrote:
TheProfessor wrote:So I'm a bit confused here, we could now get snow on Wednesday too? Could that cause Wednesday's temps to be colder?


Several models since last night have had accumulating snow in N TX yes... its a pretty borderline setup on temps as modeled now, but it's a cold core upper low involved and well we know how those things and the models could just be eroding the arctic air too fast which they are also prone to do... FWD said in the AFD this morning there could be a period of all snow Wednesday morning but they were gonna wait til this storm cleared out to do more so I'm definitely intrigued.


Yes, good post. Aside from the GFS (which is now wetter but still warmer than the other guidance) they all show cold aloft for snow Wednesday morning or a rain snow mix. I don't think the surface temperatures will matter much there's already cold air in place as the strong ULL crosses the region it will cool the atmosphere (this is the parent storm causing the ice now which is still sitting out west, impulses kicking out thus far). Previously models generally had it passing by dry but the trends the past 24 hours has been coastal low development possibility and more moisture.
Last edited by Ntxw on Mon Feb 23, 2015 10:55 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#5588 Postby SouthernMet » Mon Feb 23, 2015 10:53 am

Freezing rain now over the city of Austin and more finally forming to the southwest.

Edit : looks like most is actually forming to the southeast of travis county and will miss austin.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#5589 Postby Snowman67 » Mon Feb 23, 2015 11:00 am

TheProfessor wrote:
wxman57 wrote:


I wasn't aware anyone was launching balloons in the D-FW area. That warm nose looks warmer than the models indicate.


Which is weird because I've been getting snow for a while now, though I do live north of the office so that could be why.


I don't always trust the soundings. I remember several years ago when it began to snow at my house in Tomball. I was on the phone with a friend of mine who is a Met. He said, it can't be the soundings show a temp profile aloft that doesn't support snow. I told him to come over. He had to see it with his own eyes to believe me...
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#5590 Postby TheProfessor » Mon Feb 23, 2015 11:00 am

SREF is showing 1.5 inches of snow on Wednesday and then it shows more at the end of its run as we head into Friday.

Edit: some ensembles are showing 5 inches of snow, the one that shows 6 inches doesn't start until Thursday.
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#5591 Postby Kelarie » Mon Feb 23, 2015 11:04 am

Still have heavy sleet here in Longview. Roads are slick and sleet is accumulating quickly. Already saw several accidents on my way from the office.
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#5592 Postby somethingfunny » Mon Feb 23, 2015 11:22 am

So I'm delivering pizzas today. We are the only pizza hut in the region that is doing deliveries today Because we have enough drivers willing to give it a shot.... wish me luck yall!
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#5593 Postby dhweather » Mon Feb 23, 2015 11:27 am

12Z GFS rolling in, not looking too good for wintry precip on Wednesday or this weekend.
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Re:

#5594 Postby gboudx » Mon Feb 23, 2015 11:32 am

somethingfunny wrote:So I'm delivering pizzas today. We are the only pizza hut in the region that is doing deliveries today Because we have enough drivers willing to give it a shot.... wish me luck yall!


Depending on which place you work, I'll have a large Supreme with an order of hot buffalo wings. :)

I hope you get some serious tips for driving in this weather. I'd tip at least 50%.
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#5595 Postby Texas Snowman » Mon Feb 23, 2015 11:34 am

:uarrow: But if I remember, a day or two ago it wasn't looking too good for Rockwall to get more than .25 inches of precip out of this current event and Lucy was getting ready to pull the football away for the 61st time. :D
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Re:

#5596 Postby Portastorm » Mon Feb 23, 2015 11:36 am

dhweather wrote:12Z GFS rolling in, not looking too good for wintry precip on Wednesday or this weekend.


It hasn't the last two days ... and given the GFS' performance as of late ... I'll take that as a good sign for Texas winter weather lovers. It's been awful in terms of surface temps and has switched back and forth on vort maxes ejecting out of the larger low.
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#5597 Postby TheProfessor » Mon Feb 23, 2015 11:37 am

still going back and fowards between moderate to heavy sleet to light snow here.
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#5598 Postby hriverajr » Mon Feb 23, 2015 11:42 am

http://youtu.be/K2IvVoL21Ac

Proof lol
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Re:

#5599 Postby Portastorm » Mon Feb 23, 2015 11:44 am

hriverajr wrote:http://youtu.be/K2IvVoL21Ac

Proof lol


Very nice and thanks for sharing! That indeed is proof. Loved the looks on the kids faces too.

What interests me is how it snowed down there. I recall seeing the Euro's 850mb depiction for today and how it had dived the colder 850 temps deep into west/southwest Texas. Looks like that verified.
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#5600 Postby hriverajr » Mon Feb 23, 2015 11:49 am

Looks like that cold air is still there, all we need is a little disturbance, in Del Rio for more snow
Last edited by hriverajr on Mon Feb 23, 2015 12:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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