Texas Winter 2014-2015

[Brent]

So I'm a bit confused here, we could now get snow on Wednesday too? Could that cause Wednesday's temps to be colder?

Several models since last night have had accumulating snow in N TX yes... its a pretty borderline setup on temps as modeled now, but it's a cold core upper low involved and well we know how those things and the models could just be eroding the arctic air too fast which they are also prone to do... FWD said in the AFD this morning there could be a period of all snow Wednesday morning but they were gonna wait til this storm cleared out to do more so I'm definitely intrigued.

[wxman57]

http://s5.postimg.org/68u4pgg3n/2015_02_23_09_31_26_am.jpg

I wasn't aware anyone was launching balloons in the D-FW area. That warm nose looks warmer than the models indicate.

[TheProfessor]

So am I, possible snow on Wednesday, and then again on Friday? If that happened then this will past 2011 as the best winter weather week here in my books.

[TheProfessor]

http://s5.postimg.org/68u4pgg3n/2015_02_23_09_31_26_am.jpg

I wasn't aware anyone was launching balloons in the D-FW area. That warm nose looks warmer than the models indicate.

Which is weird because I've been getting snow for a while now, though I do live north of the office so that could be why.

[wxman57]

Sounding for Dallas area on Thursday indicates very cold air aloft. Tuesday night's event looks more questionable as far as snow (warm nose present but not as much as today).

Thursday:

[TrekkerCC]

:uarrow: So am I, possible snow on Wednesday, and then again on Friday? If that happened then this will past 2011 as the best winter weather week here in my books.

It looks like according to the GGEM (and it is only one model), the best shot for snow would be Friday Night/Saturday Morning. So it might be more of a Saturday event (assuming it happens). Obviously, a lot can change from now until then.

[Ntxw]

So I'm a bit confused here, we could now get snow on Wednesday too? Could that cause Wednesday's temps to be colder?

Several models since last night have had accumulating snow in N TX yes... its a pretty borderline setup on temps as modeled now, but it's a cold core upper low involved and well we know how those things and the models could just be eroding the arctic air too fast which they are also prone to do... FWD said in the AFD this morning there could be a period of all snow Wednesday morning but they were gonna wait til this storm cleared out to do more so I'm definitely intrigued.

Yes, good post. Aside from the GFS (which is now wetter but still warmer than the other guidance) they all show cold aloft for snow Wednesday morning or a rain snow mix. I don't think the surface temperatures will matter much there's already cold air in place as the strong ULL crosses the region it will cool the atmosphere (this is the parent storm causing the ice now which is still sitting out west, impulses kicking out thus far). Previously models generally had it passing by dry but the trends the past 24 hours has been coastal low development possibility and more moisture.

[SouthernMet]

Freezing rain now over the city of Austin and more finally forming to the southwest.

Edit : looks like most is actually forming to the southeast of travis county and will miss austin.

[Snowman67]

http://s5.postimg.org/68u4pgg3n/2015_02_23_09_31_26_am.jpg

I wasn't aware anyone was launching balloons in the D-FW area. That warm nose looks warmer than the models indicate.

Which is weird because I've been getting snow for a while now, though I do live north of the office so that could be why.

I don't always trust the soundings. I remember several years ago when it began to snow at my house in Tomball. I was on the phone with a friend of mine who is a Met. He said, it can't be the soundings show a temp profile aloft that doesn't support snow. I told him to come over. He had to see it with his own eyes to believe me...

[TheProfessor]

SREF is showing 1.5 inches of snow on Wednesday and then it shows more at the end of its run as we head into Friday.

Edit: some ensembles are showing 5 inches of snow, the one that shows 6 inches doesn't start until Thursday.

[Kelarie]

Still have heavy sleet here in Longview. Roads are slick and sleet is accumulating quickly. Already saw several accidents on my way from the office.

[somethingfunny]

So I'm delivering pizzas today. We are the only pizza hut in the region that is doing deliveries today Because we have enough drivers willing to give it a shot.... wish me luck yall!

[dhweather]

12Z GFS rolling in, not looking too good for wintry precip on Wednesday or this weekend.

[gboudx]

So I'm delivering pizzas today. We are the only pizza hut in the region that is doing deliveries today Because we have enough drivers willing to give it a shot.... wish me luck yall!

Depending on which place you work, I'll have a large Supreme with an order of hot buffalo wings.

I hope you get some serious tips for driving in this weather. I'd tip at least 50%.

[Texas Snowman]

But if I remember, a day or two ago it wasn't looking too good for Rockwall to get more than .25 inches of precip out of this current event and Lucy was getting ready to pull the football away for the 61st time.

[Portastorm]

12Z GFS rolling in, not looking too good for wintry precip on Wednesday or this weekend.

It hasn't the last two days ... and given the GFS' performance as of late ... I'll take that as a good sign for Texas winter weather lovers. It's been awful in terms of surface temps and has switched back and forth on vort maxes ejecting out of the larger low.

[TheProfessor]

still going back and fowards between moderate to heavy sleet to light snow here.

[hriverajr]

http://youtu.be/K2IvVoL21Ac

Proof lol

[Portastorm]

http://youtu.be/K2IvVoL21Ac

Proof lol

Very nice and thanks for sharing! That indeed is proof. Loved the looks on the kids faces too.

What interests me is how it snowed down there. I recall seeing the Euro's 850mb depiction for today and how it had dived the colder 850 temps deep into west/southwest Texas. Looks like that verified.

[hriverajr]

Looks like that cold air is still there, all we need is a little disturbance, in Del Rio for more snow