Texas Winter 2014-2015

[weatherdude1108]

They are still trying to tease us with some winter precip.

Looking forward to rainstorms (if we get anything) out of this extended forecast.

000
FXUS64 KEWX 252057
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
257 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
WINDS WILL DROP OFF TO LIGHT AFTER SUNSET...AND COMBINED WITH
CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PRODUCE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY OCCUR IN RIVER VALLEYS
ALONG AND NORTH OF TEXAS HIGHWAY 71 WHERE NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE
MAY RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT SPREADS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z ON
THURSDAY...WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND IT AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION. THE RESULT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...BUT A LITTLE WARMER THAN THIS PAST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE 5-7F COLDER THAN TONIGHT WITH
MODERATE COLD AIR ADVECTION STILL IN PLAY...EVEN THOUGH MOIST
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE COLD DOME WILL PRODUCE CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
CONDITIONS GET INTERESTING AND HIGHLY VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IN SHORT...THE NEAR-SURFACE COLD DOME WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE WITH A SMALL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES IN THE SFC TO 800 MB LAYER WILL BE AT OR
BELOW 0C...SUGGESTING ANOTHER ROUND OF SLEET...SNOW...AND FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE MIXED WITH RAIN. SNOW SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO
THE HILL COUNTRY...AND SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE CONFINED TO
ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND BALCONES ESCARPMENT. FORTUNATELY...
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA...SO PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. THE MOST LIKELY
IMPACTS WILL BE MINOR ROAD ICING...MOSTLY ON ELEVATED ROADS AND BRIDGES.
THE MAIN THREAT TIME WILL BE FROM 00Z-12Z SATURDAY.

THERE WILL BE BRIEF WARM-UP THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT
PROXIMITY TO THE JET STREAM AND PASSING DISTURBANCES WILL MAINTAIN
LOW POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND PACIFIC FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS TEXAS ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
INCURSION OF ARCTIC AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
THE PROSPECTS FOR COLD CONDITIONS THE LAST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

[SouthernMet]

Latest SREF gives San Angelo, Stephenville, Abilene & Brownwood 4-6"+ of snow for friday, with 1-3" for dfw and up to 2" for Georgetown (but 6 ensembles showed significant accumulations of 3-6")

Just one run, consistency though, details to come...

[Wntrwthrguy]

Latest SREF gives San Angelo, Stephenville, Abilene & Brownwood 4-6"+ of snow for friday, with 1-3" for dfw and up to 2" for Georgetown (but 6 ensembles showed significant accumulations of 3-6")

Just one run, consistency though, details to come...

If there's no upper level low that's triggering the precip, where is it getting the snow accumulation amounts from?

[SouthernMet]

There is plenty of lift friday....

[wxman57]

With the sky clearing across the D-FW metroplex, I'm not sure how there will be more snow early in the morning. I can see a weak disturbance approaching the NW Panhandle, but I don't know if it will move across NE TX. All the MOS guidance says the area will be overcast through tomorrow.

[Brent]

[SouthernMet]

Like i said 18z nam backed off on tomorrow's light snow making it to dfw.

but latest HRRR has a disturbance in northwest texas at the end of its run (5am) : http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/jsloo ... omain=full

and latest sref has light snow on top of north texas in the afternoon : http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs ... r_f030.gif

RGEM at 6am moderate snow in nw texas : http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... scus_6.png

(RGEM has it falling apart before reaching dfw at noon)

[downsouthman1]

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_a ... babilities leads me to believe that we'll be looking at a potentially accumulating snow event Friday transitioning to an ice storm Saturday & Sunday.

[wxman57]

There should be strong low-level warm advection across Texas by Saturday afternoon. I wouldn't expect any ice on Sunday anywhere.

[downsouthman1]

There should be strong low-level warm advection across Texas by Saturday afternoon. I wouldn't expect any ice on Sunday anywhere.

Makes sense actually.

[JDawg512]

Here are two pictures my sister sent me earlier. She lives in Shreveport.

[SouthernMet]

Yeah downsouthman1 I'm seeing strong WAA sunday, 40' & 50's possible.

[Yukon Cornelius]

In not paying any attention to models the rest of the week, even given the chance of precip. If I see it falling from the sky on Friday I'll know it is snowing.

[Brent]

Yeah I've about had my fill of models... I still cant forgive what they did to me last night!

[dhweather]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
342 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-252345-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOWIE...NOCONA...GAINESVILLE...
SHERMAN...DENISON...BONHAM...PARIS...GRAHAM...OLNEY...JACKSBORO...
DECATUR...BRIDGEPORT...DENTON...LEWISVILLE...FLOWER MOUND...
THE COLONY...PLANO...GREENVILLE...COMMERCE...COOPER...
SULPHUR SPRINGS...BRECKENRIDGE...MINERAL WELLS...WEATHERFORD...
BRIAR...FORT WORTH...ARLINGTON...DALLAS...ROCKWALL...TERRELL...
KAUFMAN...FORNEY...WILLS POINT...CANTON...GRAND SALINE...VAN...
EDGEWOOD...EMORY...POINT...EAST TAWAKONI...CISCO...EASTLAND...
RANGER...GORMAN...STEPHENVILLE...DUBLIN...GRANBURY...
OAK TRAIL SHORES...GLEN ROSE...CLEBURNE...BURLESON...WAXAHACHIE...
ENNIS...MIDLOTHIAN...GLENN HEIGHTS...ATHENS...GUN BARREL CITY...
COMANCHE...DE LEON...GOLDTHWAITE...HAMILTON...HICO...CLIFTON...
MERIDIAN...VALLEY MILLS...HILLSBORO...CORSICANA...TEAGUE...
FAIRFIELD...PALESTINE...LAMPASAS...COPPERAS COVE...GATESVILLE...
KILLEEN...TEMPLE...FORT HOOD...WACO...MARLIN...MEXIA...
GROESBECK...BUFFALO...CENTERVILLE...JEWETT...OAKWOOD...CAMERON...
ROCKDALE...HEARNE...FRANKLIN...CALVERT
342 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

...WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...
...REFREEZING OF ROADS POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH MORE WINTER
WEATHER POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN REFREEZING OF ANY
MELTED ICE OR SNOW THAT FELL OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TODAY. BRIDGES
AND OVERPASSES WILL ESPECIALLY BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO RE-FREEZING
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SLOW DOWN AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME
IF YOU PLAN ON COMMUTING TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY MORNING AND
CLEAR THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS BEFORE MIDDAY. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
ALOFT WILL BRING A FAST MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE AREA
ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK
UPON WITH ONLY LOW CHANCES FOR VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
NORTHWEST OF A GOLDTHWAITE TO WACO TO ATHENS LINE. NO IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

ANOTHER FAST-MOVING...YET STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE ARRIVES ON
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL YIELD LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS AREAS NORTHWEST OF A TEMPLE TO MEXIA TO ATHENS LINE.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO NEAR AN INCH...WITH
HIGHEST TOTALS EXPECTED AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 AND 35 WEST.
LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED ON MAIN ROADS OR HIGHWAYS...
THOUGH MINOR IMPACTS OF SLICK SPOTS ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES
WILL BE POSSIBILE.

VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE...FREEZING RAIN...OR SLEET WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY MORNING AS WARMER AIR ALOFT OVERRIDES THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE. LIGHT ICING ON SATURDAY COULD RESULT
IN MINOR IMPACTS OF ICING ON ALL ROADS AND HIGHWAYS. ELEVATED
SURFACES SUCH AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL BE ESPECIALLY
SUSCEPTIBLE TO LIGHT ICING DUE TO SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS TIME PERIOD HOLDS THE MOST UNCERTAINTY AS
WE AWAIT FUTURE MODEL SOLUTIONS TO NARROW DOWN THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE AND EVENTUAL IMPACTS.

WE URGE YOU TO CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER AND IMPACTS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

[SouthernMet]

Yeah I've about had my fill of models... I still cant forgive what they did to me last night!

Blame the ULL + Warm nose not the models

But yeah models have definitely been teasing us this winter.

[Lagreeneyes03]

:uarrow: Saturday afternoon sleet under southerly flow (warm advection). Not a snow event. I think NE TX is seeing its last snow of the winter today.

We will fight on till the last freeze! March Miracle, -NAO Greenland block, no sir we will not give in for as long as we can. Looks like a wet summer is coming.

Stormy and Tornadoey? (is that even a word?) Let's just bust this drought. I remember summer of 2005 I think it was. June, storms 1x a week, i worked at the airport and it was nuts. Was always worried about coming home to a tree through my roof, my neighborhood lost 2 huge ones that year. They just toppled over.

[SouthernMet]

This : http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... cus_16.png

& This : http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs ... r_f051.gif

With 18-22 degrees could be a hell of a lot more than a dusting lol

[gpsnowman]

So three days with three chances of winter precip. All in. Why not? Have nothing to lose because winter is almost over and done with. Winter needs to exit in a blaze of glory!!

[Brent]

So three days with three chances of winter precip. All in. Why not? Have nothing to lose because winter is almost over and done with. Winter needs to exit in a blaze of glory!!

This week could make up for it... but last night kind of killed it for me. Talk about a stab to the heart when you're already down...