2015 EPAC Season

[Yellow Evan]

WOW.

[cycloneye]

There is another one but is over 300 hours close to CentralAmerica.

[cycloneye]

Remains at 0/20 on 11 AM PDT TWO.

An area of low pressure may form early next week several hundred
miles south of the coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for subsequent slow development of the
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[Yellow Evan]

There is another one but is over 300 hours close to CentralAmerica.

It still sorta hints at the second hurricane, but doesn't do much with it.

[cycloneye]

A strong hurricane makes landfall near Cabo San Lucas on the 12z ECMWF run.

[Kingarabian]

Major hurricanes this early in the season. 2010 might be challenged for most majors in the beginning of the season.

[Yellow Evan]

Major hurricanes this early in the season. 2010 might be challenged for most majors in the beginning of the season.

2014 broke the earliest 2nd major record.

[cycloneye]

Yellow Evan,we may only get one to form from the trio, What do you think?

[Yellow Evan]

Yellow Evan,we may only get one to form from the trio, What do you think?

90/1E is pretty much a coin flip. Flip two coin. Heads mans it won't develop and tails means it will.

The 0/20 is a sure bet and worse comes to worse, we'd get a solid Cat 1, not too common for May that hopefully weakens prior to landfall.

[cycloneye]

18z has landfall near the ECMWF area as a cat 1.

[cycloneye]

5 PM PDT:

An area of low pressure could form early next week several hundred
miles south of the coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for subsequent slow development of the
system while it moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[cycloneye]

I wonder why the models move it towards the coast instead of tracking in open waters. Because is strong goes that way or there is a break in the ridge?

[Yellow Evan]

I wonder why the models move it towards the coast instead of tracking in open waters. Because is strong goes that way or there is a break in the ridge?

Early season storms sometimes hit land, though the they often form closer to shore. Reason for the landfalls is the West Coast troughing.

[Kingarabian]

I wonder why the models move it towards the coast instead of tracking in open waters. Because is strong goes that way or there is a break in the ridge?

Yeah too strong + a break in the ridge. The Pacific is huge, and if a storm develops near Mexico a trough usually catches it. It's near 140-130W where the sub-tropical ridge stays strong and forces storms West. Early in the season and late in the season, most storms will almost always turn to the North/North East.

[Yellow Evan]

I wonder why the models move it towards the coast instead of tracking in open waters. Because is strong goes that way or there is a break in the ridge?

Yeah too strong + a break in the ridge. The Pacific is huge, and if a storm develops near Mexico a trough usually catches it. It's near 140-130W where the sub-tropical ridge stays strong and forces storms West. Early in the season and late in the season, most storms will almost always turn to the North/North East.

EPAC storms in general affect land more often than giving credit for.

[Ntxw]

And the pattern this spring has been troughiness generally progressing from the southwest/west moving eastward towards the southern plains. This persistent weakness likely will be a magnet for anything that forms near the Mexican coast to re-curve compared to prior years.

[Yellow Evan]

And the pattern this spring has been troughiness generally progressing from the southwest/west moving eastward towards the southern plains. This persistent weakness likely will be a magnet for anything that forms near the Mexican coast to re-curve compared to prior years.

Any years with this same kind of pattern?

[Ntxw]

And the pattern this spring has been troughiness generally progressing from the southwest/west moving eastward towards the southern plains. This persistent weakness likely will be a magnet for anything that forms near the Mexican coast to re-curve compared to prior years.

Any years with this same kind of pattern?

1957, 1982, and 1991 has shown up a lot at 500mb

[Yellow Evan]

And the pattern this spring has been troughiness generally progressing from the southwest/west moving eastward towards the southern plains. This persistent weakness likely will be a magnet for anything that forms near the Mexican coast to re-curve compared to prior years.

1957, 1982, and 1991 has shown up a lot at 500mb

1982 had a Baja hurricane, 1991 had all systems except for Ignacio stay at sea, and 1957 had a Cat 4 landfall.

[Yellow Evan]

An area of low pressure could form early next week several hundred
miles south of the coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for subsequent slow development of the
system while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent