2015 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

Really grateful that the Deputy Director of the National Weather Service in Silver Spring, Maryland had time to visit the most active and violent basin in the world during her tour of the NWS Pacific Region of Hawaii, Guam, and Palau with NWS Pacific Region Director Ray Tanabe. All three photos from Guam...

THANK YOU NWS for Raising the standards and great community awareness and support for all you do in educating and informing our island community locally on Guam and in Micronesia!

Now inching and inching to the heart of the season...

[ManilaTC]

A strong suppressed convective phrase of the KW is moving through the basin with signs of the enhanced phrase coming last week of May...Dry MJO is over the area thus models keep the area very quiet for the next 1-2 weeks...

Can I ask for them links? thanks

From the MJO page at CPC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml

and the KW page at Dr Maue's website

http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/cckwmjo.html

Thanks for sharing

[euro6208]

El nino wrecking havoc...

LATEST ENSO DIAGNOSTIC UPDATE FROM CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
CONFIRMS THAT A WEAK EL NINO CONTINUES. THE MARIANAS HAVE HAD A
WETTER THAN NORMAL DRY SEASON...MICRONESIA IS HAVING A RATHER BUSY
TROPICAL CYCLONE SEASON SO FAR AND PALAU HAS BEEN DRY. SO FAR THIS
MONTH...PALAU HAS MEASURED 4.12 INCHES OUT OF 8.16 INCHES NORMAL
RAINFALL OR ABOUT 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL. FOR THE WHOLE YEAR TO
DATE THEY HAVE 27.18 INCHES OUT OF 47.25 NORMAL OR ABOUT 58
PERCENT OF NORMAL. IF THE DEFICIT GROWS MUCH LARGER WE MAY NEED TO
START ISSUING DROUGHT STATEMENTS. THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE
RELIEF IN THE NEAR-TERM. THE GFS40 PREDICTS LESS THAN A QUARTER OF
AN INCH THE NEXT 10 DAYS WHILE THE ECMWF-HIRES PREDICTS ABOUT AN
INCH. THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER ARE
FOR AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THIS EL NINO CONTINUES THROUGH THE
END OF THE YEAR. THE MODEL PLUMES INDICATE IT COULD GROW FROM WEAK
TO MODERATE OR EVEN STRONG IN THAT TIME. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE PLUME
EVEN HINTS AT A CHANCE THIS COULD BE AN EXTREME TO RECORD EVENT.
THIS IS DEFINITELY A SITUATION TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Actually this is already a weak to moderate El Niño per NOAA's latest advisory

[euro6208]

KW moving through but models continue to be quiet...



The rampage of typhoons have decreased the anomaly in the area but SST is still very favorable...





The main area for development, area l, this season due to nino is seeing slight above shear but is decreasing. Area ll and lll is below average...

[euro6208]

Another mind-blowing comparison:

The most active typhoon season, 1964, didn't have its 7th storm (Typhoon Doris) until July 11.

1964 ended up spawning 39 named storms and 26 typhoons., a record that has been lasting for more than 50 years now.

Just to show how active and record breaking this season is, here is this year compared to some of the most active seasons on record for the next storm formations. At this rate, we could be dealing with record numbers in storms and ACE...

1976 didn't have it's 7th and 8th storm by late June...

1997 didn't have it's 7th and 8th storm till mid to late June...

2003 didn't have it's 7th and 8th storm till mid June to mid July...

2004 didn't have it's 7th and 8th storm till mid June...

2015 had it on May 7 and the 8th storm based on climatology could be here very soon...

3 out of the last 4 storms turn into cat 5's...

[euro6208]

The trough beginning to get active but models don't show any development in the near future...

000
WWPQ80 PGUM 310929 CCA
SPSPQ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
715 PM CHST SUN MAY 31 2015

PMZ172-173-010200-
CHUUK-POHNPEI-
715 PM CHST SUN MAY 31 2015

CORRECTED TO MENTION FLOODING

...RAINY WEATHER ACROSS CHUUK AND POHNPEI THROUGH MONDAY...

A PERSISTENT NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH ALONG WITH FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS HAVE TRIGGERED WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS CHUUK AND POHNPEI
STATES SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS CONVECTION HAS PRODUCED ABOUT
6.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL ON POHNPEI ISLAND OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS...
INCREASING THE POTENTIAL OF MUDSLIDES. LOCAL FLOODING IN LOW-LYING
AREAS HAS BEEN REPORTED ON POHNPEI. EVEN THOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL HAS RECORDED ON WENO ISLAND OF CHUUK STATE YET...SATELLITE
LOOPS SUGGEST MODEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS OTHER ISLANDS IN CHUUK
LAGOON FOR THE PAST 18 HOURS. THIS WET PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALLS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES POSSIBLE. THIS WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE THREAT OF
MUDSLIDES AND ADDITIONAL FLOODING FOR BOTH STATES...ESPECIALLY ON
POHNPEI.

RESIDENTS LIVING NEAR VALLEYS AND STEEP SLOPES ACROSS CHUUK AND
POHNPEI STATES SHOULD MONITOR THIS SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICES...AND LATER STATEMENTS
FROM LOCAL WEATHER OFFICES AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

$$

CHAN

[euro6208]

Increase in moisture as the next MJO moves through...

[euro6208]

The main area for development, area l, this season due to nino is seeing slight above shear but is decreasing. Area ll and lll is below average...

Ocean warmed up rapidly during the last 7 days...

[euro6208]

ACE

*Through May 11 (78.1), just ahead of the old record of 77.7 in 1957.

*Current ACE of 109.168 makes 2015 the most active year on record through May 31 since 1970 surpassing the old record of 94.7 in 1976.

*Another record to chase. Highest ACE on record through June 30 since 1970. 2015 is already the third most active ace wise even beating 1997's ACE by the end of June! Can it beat 1976 and 2004?

1997 104.998
2015 109.168
1976 123.652
2004 162.575

http://weather.graphics/wpac_ace_thru_June30

Maybe a storm free June?

Models showing no TC so far...

Average for this date is 2.7 named storms (1951-2010)

We have seen already 7 so 4 above average.

Come July 8th, average is 5.2 named storms so this season is way beyond in front...

Unless we get something big later this month, 2015 is losing to 1976 and 2004 for most ACE on record through June 30...

Or maybe the WPAC can make up for the lost ACE in July? which averages about 3 typhoons, something 1997 and 2004 didn't achieve...

2015 and the most active season on record 1964 is looking similiar with a quiet June but can 2015 also be as explosive in July like in 1964? 1964 ended with 39 named storms and 26 typhoons and 2015 is way ahead of that year.

2004 and even 1997 saw an active June and quiet July so everything is reverse...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

1976 ended up with a normal season, not above average (296 at the year end)

Even 1992 is just a late bloomer, but ended up among the highest on record ACE

[euro6208]

Little to no MJO in the area as it will remain in the Western Hemisphere but looks to be a strong KW about to move into the basin...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Storm free June? That's unscientific. I mean we're still in the first week of the month and you exceeded the model timeframe of 2 weeks and you concluded the whole month. Given the presence of the Rossby Wave, that is very unlikely. Please put more basis on your statement

[euro6208]

Storm free June? That's unscientific. I mean we're still in the first week of the month and you exceeded the model timeframe of 2 weeks and you concluded the whole month. Given the presence of the Rossby Wave, that is very unlikely. Please put more basis on your statement

Keyword

Maybe a storm free June?

It's possible...

Since 2000, it has happened 4 times.

Last year with no June storm was in 2010. We all know what happen that year. Record low numbers and ACE although Megi did entertain us with recon finding a historic storm, 165 knots, just east of Luzon and making landfall...

[euro6208]

Calm before the storms...

Longest we had to wait for the next storm is exactly one month this year, Higos (Feb 11) Bavi (Mar 11).

Dolphin dissipated on May 19...

[euro6208]

Robust MJO coming...



KW on the way...

[euro6208]

Models beginning to slowly show some activity...

[euro6208]

06Z GFS signaling Kujira, another dateline storm due to nino...

I wonder just how active the WPAC will be this season. I mean it is ALWAYS active but add in el nino, it's just extra fuel to the fire. I hate to think we might have another Megi, Haiyan, Gay, Angela type storm...

Unfortunately the theme for this season is long tracking monsters with hundreds of islands along the path...

[euro6208]

Maybe another U.S threat?

That is for Guam, not the U.S mainland...

[euro6208]

CMC has been very consistent over the past 5 runs of a strong typhoon at landfall...