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Now inching and inching to the heart of the season...



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euro6208 wrote:ManilaTC wrote:euro6208 wrote:A strong suppressed convective phrase of the KW is moving through the basin with signs of the enhanced phrase coming last week of May...Dry MJO is over the area thus models keep the area very quiet for the next 1-2 weeks...
Can I ask for them links? thanks
From the MJO page at CPC
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml
and the KW page at Dr Maue's website
http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/cckwmjo.html
LATEST ENSO DIAGNOSTIC UPDATE FROM CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
CONFIRMS THAT A WEAK EL NINO CONTINUES. THE MARIANAS HAVE HAD A
WETTER THAN NORMAL DRY SEASON...MICRONESIA IS HAVING A RATHER BUSY
TROPICAL CYCLONE SEASON SO FAR AND PALAU HAS BEEN DRY. SO FAR THIS
MONTH...PALAU HAS MEASURED 4.12 INCHES OUT OF 8.16 INCHES NORMAL
RAINFALL OR ABOUT 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL. FOR THE WHOLE YEAR TO
DATE THEY HAVE 27.18 INCHES OUT OF 47.25 NORMAL OR ABOUT 58
PERCENT OF NORMAL. IF THE DEFICIT GROWS MUCH LARGER WE MAY NEED TO
START ISSUING DROUGHT STATEMENTS. THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE
RELIEF IN THE NEAR-TERM. THE GFS40 PREDICTS LESS THAN A QUARTER OF
AN INCH THE NEXT 10 DAYS WHILE THE ECMWF-HIRES PREDICTS ABOUT AN
INCH. THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER ARE
FOR AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THIS EL NINO CONTINUES THROUGH THE
END OF THE YEAR. THE MODEL PLUMES INDICATE IT COULD GROW FROM WEAK
TO MODERATE OR EVEN STRONG IN THAT TIME. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE PLUME
EVEN HINTS AT A CHANCE THIS COULD BE AN EXTREME TO RECORD EVENT.
THIS IS DEFINITELY A SITUATION TO MONITOR CLOSELY.
Extratropical94 wrote:Another mind-blowing comparison:
The most active typhoon season, 1964, didn't have its 7th storm (Typhoon Doris) until July 11.
1964 ended up spawning 39 named storms and 26 typhoons., a record that has been lasting for more than 50 years now.
euro6208 wrote:
The main area for development, area l, this season due to nino is seeing slight above shear but is decreasing. Area ll and lll is below average...
euro6208 wrote:
ACE
*Through May 11 (78.1), just ahead of the old record of 77.7 in 1957.
*Current ACE of 109.168 makes 2015 the most active year on record through May 31 since 1970 surpassing the old record of 94.7 in 1976.
*Another record to chase. Highest ACE on record through June 30 since 1970. 2015 is already the third most active ace wise even beating 1997's ACE by the end of June! Can it beat 1976 and 2004?
1997 104.998
2015 109.168
1976 123.652
2004 162.575
http://weather.graphics/wpac_ace_thru_June30
xtyphooncyclonex wrote:Storm free June? That's unscientific. I mean we're still in the first week of the month and you exceeded the model timeframe of 2 weeks and you concluded the whole month. Given the presence of the Rossby Wave, that is very unlikely. Please put more basis on your statement
Maybe a storm free June?
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