2015 EPAC Season

[Yellow Evan]

A small area of disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms
associated with a tropical wave is located several hundred miles
south of Acapulco, Mexico. Some gradual development of this system
is possible by early next week while it moves slowly
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[tolakram]

Euro goes down to 973MB at 216 hours

[cycloneye]

5 AM PDT:

A small area of disorganized cloudiness and showers associated with
a tropical wave is located several hundred miles south of Acapulco,
Mexico. Upper-level winds are not expected to be favorable during
the next few days while the system moves slowly west-northwestward,
but they could become more conducive for development early next
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS



6z GFS

[cycloneye]

Up to 0/40:

A weak low pressure system located several hundred miles south of
Acapulco, Mexico is accompanied by disorganized cloudiness and
showers. Upper-level winds are not expected to be favorable during
the next couple of days while the system moves slowly westward to
west-northwestward, but they are forecast to become more conducive
for development by early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

[Kingarabian]

We were all excited for Andres a few weeks ago and now it's turning out to be just an appetizer for more to come!

Hope they stay clear of Mexico.

[Yellow Evan]

We were all excited for Andres a few weeks ago and now it's turning out to be just an appetizer for more to come!

Hope they stay clear of Mexico.

Pattern seems to be favoring the SW part of the basin, like most +PDO/El Nino years.

[Yellow Evan]

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 1h1 hour ago

CCKW + favorable MJO + good ensemble agreement likely means Blanca around the middle of next week...long year ahead.

[cycloneye]

What the new communication format social media can do that we already know that by midweek Blanca will be out there.

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS

[cycloneye]

5 PM PDT up to 0/50:

A weak low pressure system located several hundred miles south of
Acapulco, Mexico, is accompanied by disorganized cloudiness and
showers. Strong upper-level winds associated with Hurricane
Andres are expected to inhibit tropical cyclone formation during the
next few days while the system moves slowly westward or west-
northwestward. However, these winds should become more conducive for
development by early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

[Yellow Evan]

All I have to say is wow.

[talkon]

12Z CMC shows a weak TS Hawaii landfall.

[TheStormExpert]

Yeah the lid has basically come off or is just about too in the East Pacific.


Hopefully this season features no hurricane threats but with the numbers being forecasted and the possible Super El Niño trying to rival 1997 I find it nearly impossible not to see at least one hurricane threat in Mexico of even Hawaii for that matter.

[Yellow Evan]

929 MBAR!!!!!

[Yellow Evan]

A weak low pressure system located several hundred miles south-
southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, is accompanied by disorganized
cloudiness and showers. Strong upper-level winds associated with
Hurricane Andres should inhibit tropical cyclone formation during
the next few days while the system moves west-northwestward at about
5 mph. However, these winds are expected to weaken on Monday, and
development of this system appears likely by the middle of next
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

[cycloneye]

Up to 20/80

A small area of showers and thunderstorms located several hundred
miles south of Acapulco, Mexico is associated with a weak area of
low pressure. Currently, strong upper-level winds associated with
Hurricane Andres are inhibiting the development of this low.
However, these winds are forecast to weaken by Monday and the
formation of a tropical cyclone is highly likely by the middle of
next week as the system drifts west-northwestward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

[Yellow Evan]

928 MBAR!!!!!

Later brings it into central Baja. Is it September?

[cycloneye]

11 AM PDT:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a weak area of low
pressure located a few hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico are
limited. Strong upper-level winds associated with Hurricane Andres
are currently inhibiting the development of this low. However, these
winds should begin to weaken by Monday and the formation of a
tropical cyclone is highly likely by the middle of next week as the
system drifts west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

[Kingarabian]

That GFS is crazy.