2015 EPAC Season

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Yellow Evan
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#341 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu May 28, 2015 7:08 pm

A small area of disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms
associated with a tropical wave is located several hundred miles
south of Acapulco, Mexico. Some gradual development of this system
is possible by early next week while it moves slowly
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
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Re: 2015 EPAC Season

#342 Postby tolakram » Thu May 28, 2015 8:55 pm

Euro goes down to 973MB at 216 hours
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Re: 2015 EPAC Season

#343 Postby cycloneye » Fri May 29, 2015 6:33 am

5 AM PDT:

A small area of disorganized cloudiness and showers associated with
a tropical wave is located several hundred miles south of Acapulco,
Mexico. Upper-level winds are not expected to be favorable during
the next few days while the system moves slowly west-northwestward,
but they could become more conducive for development early next
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent
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Re: 2015 EPAC Season

#344 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri May 29, 2015 7:44 am

Image

Image

0z GFS

Image

6z GFS
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Re: 2015 EPAC Season

#345 Postby cycloneye » Fri May 29, 2015 12:40 pm

Up to 0/40:

A weak low pressure system located several hundred miles south of
Acapulco, Mexico is accompanied by disorganized cloudiness and
showers. Upper-level winds are not expected to be favorable during
the next couple of days while the system moves slowly westward to
west-northwestward, but they are forecast to become more conducive
for development by early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent
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#346 Postby Kingarabian » Fri May 29, 2015 3:49 pm

We were all excited for Andres a few weeks ago and now it's turning out to be just an appetizer for more to come!

Hope they stay clear of Mexico.
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Re:

#347 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri May 29, 2015 4:43 pm

Kingarabian wrote:We were all excited for Andres a few weeks ago and now it's turning out to be just an appetizer for more to come!

Hope they stay clear of Mexico.


Pattern seems to be favoring the SW part of the basin, like most +PDO/El Nino years.
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Re: 2015 EPAC Season

#348 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri May 29, 2015 4:46 pm

Image

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 1h1 hour ago

CCKW + favorable MJO + good ensemble agreement likely means Blanca around the middle of next week...long year ahead.
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Re: 2015 EPAC Season

#349 Postby cycloneye » Fri May 29, 2015 5:09 pm

What the new communication format social media can do that we already know that by midweek Blanca will be out there. :)
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Re: 2015 EPAC Season

#350 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri May 29, 2015 5:26 pm

Image

12z GFS
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Re: 2015 EPAC Season

#351 Postby cycloneye » Fri May 29, 2015 6:35 pm

5 PM PDT up to 0/50:

A weak low pressure system located several hundred miles south of
Acapulco, Mexico, is accompanied by disorganized cloudiness and
showers. Strong upper-level winds associated with Hurricane
Andres are expected to inhibit tropical cyclone formation during the
next few days while the system moves slowly westward or west-
northwestward. However, these winds should become more conducive for
development by early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent
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Re: 2015 EPAC Season

#352 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri May 29, 2015 7:22 pm

Image

All I have to say is wow.
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#353 Postby talkon » Fri May 29, 2015 10:54 pm

Image

12Z CMC shows a weak TS Hawaii landfall.
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#354 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri May 29, 2015 10:58 pm

Yeah the lid has basically come off or is just about too in the East Pacific.
:blowup:

Hopefully this season features no hurricane threats but with the numbers being forecasted and the possible Super El Niño trying to rival 1997 I find it nearly impossible not to see at least one hurricane threat in Mexico of even Hawaii for that matter.
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Re: 2015 EPAC Season

#355 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri May 29, 2015 11:36 pm

Image

929 MBAR!!!!!
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#356 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat May 30, 2015 12:42 am

A weak low pressure system located several hundred miles south-
southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, is accompanied by disorganized
cloudiness and showers. Strong upper-level winds associated with
Hurricane Andres should inhibit tropical cyclone formation during
the next few days while the system moves west-northwestward at about
5 mph. However, these winds are expected to weaken on Monday, and
development of this system appears likely by the middle of next
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent
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Re: 2015 EPAC Season

#357 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 30, 2015 6:38 am

Up to 20/80

A small area of showers and thunderstorms located several hundred
miles south of Acapulco, Mexico is associated with a weak area of
low pressure. Currently, strong upper-level winds associated with
Hurricane Andres are inhibiting the development of this low.
However, these winds are forecast to weaken by Monday and the
formation of a tropical cyclone is highly likely by the middle of
next week as the system drifts west-northwestward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
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Re: 2015 EPAC Season

#358 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat May 30, 2015 10:39 am

Image

Image

928 MBAR!!!!!

Later brings it into central Baja. Is it September?
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Re: 2015 EPAC Season

#359 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 30, 2015 12:27 pm

11 AM PDT:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a weak area of low
pressure located a few hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico are
limited. Strong upper-level winds associated with Hurricane Andres
are currently inhibiting the development of this low. However, these
winds should begin to weaken by Monday and the formation of a
tropical cyclone is highly likely by the middle of next week as the
system drifts west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
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#360 Postby Kingarabian » Sat May 30, 2015 2:56 pm

That GFS is crazy.
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RIP Kobe Bryant


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