EPAC: ANDRES - Post-Tropical
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ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 31 MAY 2015 Time : 113000 UTC
Lat : 15:21:07 N Lon : 117:48:10 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.4 / 961.4mb/ 99.6kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.2 5.2 5.2
Center Temp : -60.1C Cloud Region Temp : -73.4C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS
Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 102km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb
Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 26.8 degrees
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 31 MAY 2015 Time : 113000 UTC
Lat : 15:21:07 N Lon : 117:48:10 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.4 / 961.4mb/ 99.6kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.2 5.2 5.2
Center Temp : -60.1C Cloud Region Temp : -73.4C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS
Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 102km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb
Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 26.8 degrees
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- cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: ANDRES - Hurricane
Hanging there.
EP, 01, 2015053112, , BEST, 0, 154N, 1178W, 90, 968, HU
EP, 01, 2015053112, , BEST, 0, 154N, 1178W, 90, 968, HU
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Re: EPAC: ANDRES - Hurricane
HURRICANE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015
800 AM PDT SUN MAY 31 2015
Andres appears to be maintaining its strength for now. The cloud
pattern of the hurricane consists of a central dense overcast with
an eye occasionally evident in infrared satellite images. There is
some indication of drier air wrapping around the circulation as seen
in total precipitate water imagery. The Dvorak classifications from
TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS were generally the same as the previous
cycle, so the initial wind speed estimate remains 90 kt.
Steady weakening is anticipated to begin by tonight when the
hurricane moves over progressively cooler water and into a much more
stable air mass. Andres is expected to become a remnant low by the
end of the forecast period, when it is forecast to be over sea
surface temperatures cooler than 24 C. The official intensity
forecast is unchanged from the previous one and is in line with much
of the guidance.
Andres has made the expected turn toward the west-northwest, and the
latest initial motion estimate is 290/7. This general motion is
expected to continue for the next few days while the system remains
on the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge. After that time,
there remains significant spread in the model guidance. The
GFS, GEFS ensemble mean, UKMET, and HWRF models show Andres stalling
and then turning northeastward toward a mid- to upper-level trough.
Conversely, the ECMWF model shows Andres moving slowly westward
during the 72-120 hour time frame in the low-level flow. The
official track forecast is a little north of and slower than the
previous one at 72 hours and beyond. This forecast continues to
lean toward the ECMWF model, especially in the longer range, which
appears to have the most realistic solution of a decaying tropical
cyclone moving over cool water.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 31/1500Z 15.5N 118.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 15.8N 119.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 16.4N 120.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 17.0N 121.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 17.8N 123.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 19.3N 126.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 04/1200Z 19.8N 126.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 05/1200Z 19.9N 127.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015
800 AM PDT SUN MAY 31 2015
Andres appears to be maintaining its strength for now. The cloud
pattern of the hurricane consists of a central dense overcast with
an eye occasionally evident in infrared satellite images. There is
some indication of drier air wrapping around the circulation as seen
in total precipitate water imagery. The Dvorak classifications from
TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS were generally the same as the previous
cycle, so the initial wind speed estimate remains 90 kt.
Steady weakening is anticipated to begin by tonight when the
hurricane moves over progressively cooler water and into a much more
stable air mass. Andres is expected to become a remnant low by the
end of the forecast period, when it is forecast to be over sea
surface temperatures cooler than 24 C. The official intensity
forecast is unchanged from the previous one and is in line with much
of the guidance.
Andres has made the expected turn toward the west-northwest, and the
latest initial motion estimate is 290/7. This general motion is
expected to continue for the next few days while the system remains
on the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge. After that time,
there remains significant spread in the model guidance. The
GFS, GEFS ensemble mean, UKMET, and HWRF models show Andres stalling
and then turning northeastward toward a mid- to upper-level trough.
Conversely, the ECMWF model shows Andres moving slowly westward
during the 72-120 hour time frame in the low-level flow. The
official track forecast is a little north of and slower than the
previous one at 72 hours and beyond. This forecast continues to
lean toward the ECMWF model, especially in the longer range, which
appears to have the most realistic solution of a decaying tropical
cyclone moving over cool water.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 31/1500Z 15.5N 118.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 15.8N 119.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 16.4N 120.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 17.0N 121.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 17.8N 123.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 19.3N 126.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 04/1200Z 19.8N 126.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 05/1200Z 19.9N 127.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 31 MAY 2015 Time : 140000 UTC
Lat : 15:19:04 N Lon : 117:56:54 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.4 / 961.4mb/ 99.6kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.2 4.9 4.9
Center Temp : -54.0C Cloud Region Temp : -67.5C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS
Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 102km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb
Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 26.6 degrees
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 31 MAY 2015 Time : 140000 UTC
Lat : 15:19:04 N Lon : 117:56:54 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.4 / 961.4mb/ 99.6kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.2 4.9 4.9
Center Temp : -54.0C Cloud Region Temp : -67.5C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS
Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 102km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb
Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 26.6 degrees
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- Yellow Evan
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Eye's back
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 31 MAY 2015 Time : 143000 UTC
Lat : 15:20:02 N Lon : 117:59:54 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.4 / 961.4mb/ 99.6kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.3 5.6 5.6
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km
Center Temp : -43.4C Cloud Region Temp : -67.5C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS
Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 102km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb
Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 26.6 degrees
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 31 MAY 2015 Time : 143000 UTC
Lat : 15:20:02 N Lon : 117:59:54 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.4 / 961.4mb/ 99.6kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.3 5.6 5.6
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km
Center Temp : -43.4C Cloud Region Temp : -67.5C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS
Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 102km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb
Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 26.6 degrees
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- TropicalAnalystwx13
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This is the best Andres has looked to date. The storm is much more consolidated compared to yesterday, its central dense overcast is not as ragged, and the eye is as warm as it's ever been. The cyclone is likely benefiting from reduced wind shear despite moving over marginal sea surface temperatures. I would probably go slightly higher than the 15z advisory did. 95kt?


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Re: EPAC: ANDRES - Hurricane
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 31 MAY 2015 Time : 150000 UTC
Lat : 15:21:00 N Lon : 118:09:06 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.4 / 961.4mb/ 99.6kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.3 5.7 6.0
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km
Center Temp : -29.1C Cloud Region Temp : -69.3C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS
Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 102km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb
Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 26.5 degrees
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 31 MAY 2015 Time : 150000 UTC
Lat : 15:21:00 N Lon : 118:09:06 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.4 / 961.4mb/ 99.6kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.3 5.7 6.0
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km
Center Temp : -29.1C Cloud Region Temp : -69.3C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS
Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 102km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb
Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 26.5 degrees
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- Yellow Evan
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UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 31 MAY 2015 Time : 153000 UTC
Lat : 15:15:56 N Lon : 118:12:05 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.4 / 961.4mb/ 99.6kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.4 6.0 6.0
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km
Center Temp : -42.1C Cloud Region Temp : -70.4C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS
Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 102km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb
Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 26.4 degrees
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 31 MAY 2015 Time : 153000 UTC
Lat : 15:15:56 N Lon : 118:12:05 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.4 / 961.4mb/ 99.6kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.4 6.0 6.0
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km
Center Temp : -42.1C Cloud Region Temp : -70.4C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS
Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 102km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb
Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 26.4 degrees
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Re: EPAC: ANDRES - Hurricane
Andres is still holding on as it moves WNW and it looks quite interestingly well. It is very consolidated and its eye is popping back. We shall see what this system does.

Synopsis on Andres and other systems:http://goo.gl/A85F9Q
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Synopsis on Andres and other systems:http://goo.gl/A85F9Q
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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- Yellow Evan
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Re:
Kingarabian wrote:I would say it's a major hurricane once again. Looked better thanks it sis at its peak yesterday.
Agreed. Looks right on the border between a T5.0 and a T5.5.
Look here http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... 0-lalo.gif
Does the black wrap .5 degrees around the eye is the question?
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- Yellow Evan
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ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 31 MAY 2015 Time : 173000 UTC
Lat : 15:19:39 N Lon : 118:17:46 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.9 / 950.6mb/112.4kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.9 5.9 5.9
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 14 km
Center Temp : -18.4C Cloud Region Temp : -67.1C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION
Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 102km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb
Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 26.3 degrees
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 31 MAY 2015 Time : 173000 UTC
Lat : 15:19:39 N Lon : 118:17:46 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.9 / 950.6mb/112.4kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.9 5.9 5.9
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 14 km
Center Temp : -18.4C Cloud Region Temp : -67.1C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION
Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 102km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb
Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 26.3 degrees
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- TropicalAnalystwx13
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TXPZ26 KNES 311826
TCSENP
A. 01E (ANDRES)
B. 31/1800Z
C. 15.3N
D. 118.5W
E. ONE/GOES-W
F. T5.5/5.5/D0.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS
H. REMARKS...CENTRAL FEATURE HAS EMBEDDED TEMPERATURE OF LIGHT GRAY
GIVING AN EYE NUMBER OF 5.0 WITH AN OFF-WHITE EYE AND A BLACK RING FOR
A +.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT YIELDING A FINAL DT OF 5.5. MET IS 5.5 BASED ON
SLOW DEVELOPMENT COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. PT IS 5.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
31/1416Z 15.3N 118.2W SSMIS
...LIDDICK
TCSENP
A. 01E (ANDRES)
B. 31/1800Z
C. 15.3N
D. 118.5W
E. ONE/GOES-W
F. T5.5/5.5/D0.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS
H. REMARKS...CENTRAL FEATURE HAS EMBEDDED TEMPERATURE OF LIGHT GRAY
GIVING AN EYE NUMBER OF 5.0 WITH AN OFF-WHITE EYE AND A BLACK RING FOR
A +.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT YIELDING A FINAL DT OF 5.5. MET IS 5.5 BASED ON
SLOW DEVELOPMENT COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. PT IS 5.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
31/1416Z 15.3N 118.2W SSMIS
...LIDDICK
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