EPAC: ANDRES - Post-Tropical

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#261 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun May 31, 2015 7:14 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 31 MAY 2015 Time : 113000 UTC
Lat : 15:21:07 N Lon : 117:48:10 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.4 / 961.4mb/ 99.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.2 5.2 5.2

Center Temp : -60.1C Cloud Region Temp : -73.4C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 102km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 26.8 degrees
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#262 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun May 31, 2015 7:33 am

31/1200 UTC 15.4N 117.9W T5.0/5.5 ANDRES -- East Pacific
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Re: EPAC: ANDRES - Hurricane

#263 Postby cycloneye » Sun May 31, 2015 7:49 am

Hanging there.

EP, 01, 2015053112, , BEST, 0, 154N, 1178W, 90, 968, HU
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Re: EPAC: ANDRES - Hurricane

#264 Postby cycloneye » Sun May 31, 2015 9:33 am

HURRICANE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015
800 AM PDT SUN MAY 31 2015

Andres appears to be maintaining its strength for now. The cloud
pattern of the hurricane consists of a central dense overcast with
an eye occasionally evident in infrared satellite images. There is
some indication of drier air wrapping around the circulation as seen
in total precipitate water imagery. The Dvorak classifications from
TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS were generally the same as the previous
cycle, so the initial wind speed estimate remains 90 kt.

Steady weakening is anticipated to begin by tonight when the
hurricane moves over progressively cooler water and into a much more
stable air mass. Andres is expected to become a remnant low by the
end of the forecast period, when it is forecast to be over sea
surface temperatures cooler than 24 C. The official intensity
forecast is unchanged from the previous one and is in line with much
of the guidance.

Andres has made the expected turn toward the west-northwest, and the
latest initial motion estimate is 290/7. This general motion is
expected to continue for the next few days while the system remains
on the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge. After that time,
there remains significant spread in the model guidance. The
GFS, GEFS ensemble mean, UKMET, and HWRF models show Andres stalling
and then turning northeastward toward a mid- to upper-level trough.
Conversely, the ECMWF model shows Andres moving slowly westward
during the 72-120 hour time frame in the low-level flow. The
official track forecast is a little north of and slower than the
previous one at 72 hours and beyond. This forecast continues to
lean toward the ECMWF model, especially in the longer range, which
appears to have the most realistic solution of a decaying tropical
cyclone moving over cool water.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/1500Z 15.5N 118.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 15.8N 119.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 16.4N 120.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 17.0N 121.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 17.8N 123.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 19.3N 126.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 04/1200Z 19.8N 126.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 05/1200Z 19.9N 127.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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#265 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun May 31, 2015 9:54 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 31 MAY 2015 Time : 140000 UTC
Lat : 15:19:04 N Lon : 117:56:54 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.4 / 961.4mb/ 99.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.2 4.9 4.9

Center Temp : -54.0C Cloud Region Temp : -67.5C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 102km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 26.6 degrees
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#266 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun May 31, 2015 10:24 am

Eye's back



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 31 MAY 2015 Time : 143000 UTC
Lat : 15:20:02 N Lon : 117:59:54 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.4 / 961.4mb/ 99.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.3 5.6 5.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -43.4C Cloud Region Temp : -67.5C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 102km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 26.6 degrees
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#267 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sun May 31, 2015 10:38 am

This is the best Andres has looked to date. The storm is much more consolidated compared to yesterday, its central dense overcast is not as ragged, and the eye is as warm as it's ever been. The cyclone is likely benefiting from reduced wind shear despite moving over marginal sea surface temperatures. I would probably go slightly higher than the 15z advisory did. 95kt?

Image
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#268 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun May 31, 2015 10:42 am

I'd like the eye to clear out some more before I think it's a major. 95, sure.
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Re: EPAC: ANDRES - Hurricane

#269 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun May 31, 2015 10:45 am

Image

Not too bad.
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Re: EPAC: ANDRES - Hurricane

#270 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun May 31, 2015 10:56 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 31 MAY 2015 Time : 150000 UTC
Lat : 15:21:00 N Lon : 118:09:06 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.4 / 961.4mb/ 99.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.3 5.7 6.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -29.1C Cloud Region Temp : -69.3C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 102km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 26.5 degrees
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#271 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun May 31, 2015 11:13 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 31 MAY 2015 Time : 153000 UTC
Lat : 15:15:56 N Lon : 118:12:05 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.4 / 961.4mb/ 99.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.4 6.0 6.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -42.1C Cloud Region Temp : -70.4C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 102km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 26.4 degrees
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Re: EPAC: ANDRES - Hurricane

#272 Postby HurricaneTracker2031 » Sun May 31, 2015 12:02 pm

Andres is still holding on as it moves WNW and it looks quite interestingly well. It is very consolidated and its eye is popping back. We shall see what this system does.

Image

Synopsis on Andres and other systems:http://goo.gl/A85F9Q

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#273 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun May 31, 2015 12:51 pm

ADT: 961 hPa 100 knots Scene: CDO Date: MAY311500
CIMSS AMSU: 952 hPa 101 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 05311318
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#274 Postby Kingarabian » Sun May 31, 2015 1:16 pm

I would say it's a major hurricane once again. Looked better thanks it sis at its peak yesterday.
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#275 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun May 31, 2015 1:24 pm

Kingarabian wrote:I would say it's a major hurricane once again. Looked better thanks it sis at its peak yesterday.


Agreed. Looks right on the border between a T5.0 and a T5.5.

Look here http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... 0-lalo.gif

Does the black wrap .5 degrees around the eye is the question?
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#276 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun May 31, 2015 1:25 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 31 MAY 2015 Time : 173000 UTC
Lat : 15:19:39 N Lon : 118:17:46 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.9 / 950.6mb/112.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.9 5.9 5.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 14 km

Center Temp : -18.4C Cloud Region Temp : -67.1C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 102km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 26.3 degrees
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#277 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sun May 31, 2015 1:36 pm

18z Best Track raises Andres to 105kt:

EP, 01, 2015053118, , BEST, 0, 153N, 1185W, 105, 955, HU,
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#278 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun May 31, 2015 1:38 pm

Great call on the 105.
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#279 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun May 31, 2015 1:39 pm

TXPZ26 KNES 311826
TCSENP

A. 01E (ANDRES)

B. 31/1800Z

C. 15.3N

D. 118.5W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T5.5/5.5/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...CENTRAL FEATURE HAS EMBEDDED TEMPERATURE OF LIGHT GRAY
GIVING AN EYE NUMBER OF 5.0 WITH AN OFF-WHITE EYE AND A BLACK RING FOR
A +.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT YIELDING A FINAL DT OF 5.5. MET IS 5.5 BASED ON
SLOW DEVELOPMENT COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. PT IS 5.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

31/1416Z 15.3N 118.2W SSMIS


...LIDDICK
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#280 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sun May 31, 2015 1:40 pm

Saved AVN loop. I agree with NHC's initial intensity this time, unlike last night when Andres didn't look anywhere near major hurricane status.

Image
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