ATL: BILL - Post-Tropical

[wkwally]

Was just outside for a smoke and looking out towards the gulf the cloud formations sure do look tropical here in Brownsville

[Stormcenter]

91L is the Rodney Dangerfield of tropical disturbances. IMO

No "Bill" yet. NHC just tweeted that no advisories will be issued at 5 p.m. Eastern. Next plane in system at 8 p.m.

[Extratropical94]

NHC is simply waiting for Recon to confirm before upgrading when they get in there early this evening. I will say it is definitely better organized than when I last checked in earlier today around 12Z this morning.

That's also what I think. They'll probably let the recon aircraft do a few passes and then declare the system a TS in the 0Z best track update and start the advisory cycle three hours later in case the plane finds something truly organized.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[SouthDadeFish]

Still seems to my eye that the low and mid level centers are not aligned. MLC looks to be trailing back to the SE a bit. This will slow the intensification process. Other than that, the system looks pretty good.

[Nederlander]

91L is the Rodney Dangerfield of tropical disturbances. IMO

No "Bill" yet. NHC just tweeted that no advisories will be issued at 5 p.m. Eastern. Next plane in system at 8 p.m.

Best post of the day lol

[ozonepete]

Wow. No warnings at 5PM is a little surprising. If warnings do go up it's going to be one of the shortest lead times that I can remember in recent history. Be very careful to note this is not a criticism. I'm just wondering out loud why they won't go ahead and give a few more hours notice. My suspicion is that they don't expect any RI and it is important to note the SSTs near the coast drop off to below 26C (even below 25) well before it landfalls. I suspect they just don't expect a very strong storm but rather a prodigious rainmaker and local OEMs already know that.

[EquusStorm]

I sense they're gonna have to back up the formation time of Bill by at least 12 hours or so in post-storm analysis at this point. This already seems more organized than quite a few other classified past tropical storms... they seem waaay more conservative with this storm than they usually are. No doubt they will find a rather organized tropical storm, perhaps a strong one, tonight.

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[SouthDadeFish]

Wow. No warnings at 5PM is a little surprising. If warnings do go up it's going to be one of the shortest lead times that I can remember in recent history. Be very careful to note this is not a criticism. I'm just wondering out loud why they won't go ahead and give a few more hours notice. My suspicion is that they don't expect any RI and it is important to note the SSTs near the coast drop off to below 26C (even below 25) well before it landfalls. I suspect they just don't expect a very strong storm but rather a prodigious rainmaker and local OEMs already know that.

My friend, where do you see those SSTs near the coast? This says otherwise:

https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/dsdt/cwtg/wgof.html

[wkwally]

I am a little surprised that at the very least no watches have been issued. I am sure that even if this storm does not get a name there will still be tropical storm conditions in the area of landfall and I am also sure that Houston is going to be slammed as they do not need anymore rain. I have already told my daughter and her friends up there to take percautions for this and to stock up for a couple of days as I am almose sure that they will be flooded IMO
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Extratropical94]

Have they ever done THAT before? (taken directly from http://www.nhc.noaa.gov)

[Alyono]

I am a little surprised that at the very least no watches have been issued. I am sure that even if this storm does not get a name there will still be tropical storm conditions in the area of landfall and I am also sure that Houston is going to be slammed as they do not need anymore rain. I have already told my daughter and her friends up there to take percautions for this and to stock up for a couple of days as I am almose sure that they will be flooded IMO
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

takes the government 10 years to do what it takes private industry 10 minutes

[wkwally]

Have they ever done THAT before? (taken directly from http://www.nhc.noaa.gov)

Sounds to me like someone is under the gun

[Tireman4]

Have they ever done THAT before? (taken directly from http://www.nhc.noaa.gov)

I have never heard or seen that before. I have been listening and watching NHC advisories since...well Tropical Storm Delia in 1973..and before...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_ ... %281973%29

[jasons2k]

I don't understand. They've initiated advisories numerous times in the past based on satellite/buoy/other data without a plane.

The biggest headache with this is that it forces employers/schools/etc. to make decisions for tomorrow after-hours. It's going to be quite a scramble to communicate all the closings and other impacts last-minute.

[Hurricane Jed]

And we wait... Regardless this is going to be a flooding mess. I'm worried.

[Portastorm]

I don't understand. They've initiated advisories numerous times in the past based on satellite/buoy/other data without a plane.

The biggest headache with this is that it forces employers/schools/etc. to make decisions for tomorrow after-hours. It's going to be quite a scramble to communicate all the closings and other impacts last-minute.

In many cases, yes ... but I do know of a number of school districts and employers who use private sector weather companies for their decisions. Many got tired of dealing with the NWS and NHC probably because of situations just like this one. Everyone along or east of I-35 in Texas should know by now that a boatload of rain is coming.

[wkwally]

I have a bad feeling about this one. I hope I am wrong and the NHC is seeing something I am not.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Alyono]

I don't understand. They've initiated advisories numerous times in the past based on satellite/buoy/other data without a plane.

The biggest headache with this is that it forces employers/schools/etc. to make decisions for tomorrow after-hours. It's going to be quite a scramble to communicate all the closings and other impacts last-minute.

most of them have private services. NHC is not playing as big of a role as one may expect

[xironman]

Some nice hot towers blowing off the NE sector, maybe if they wrap around the storm will get going with a forming core.

[davidiowx]

I don't understand. They've initiated advisories numerous times in the past based on satellite/buoy/other data without a plane.

The biggest headache with this is that it forces employers/schools/etc. to make decisions for tomorrow after-hours. It's going to be quite a scramble to communicate all the closings and other impacts last-minute.

most of them have private services. NHC is not playing as big of a role as one may expect

This exactly. I am still surprised the NHC hasn't at least issued watches. I have seen so many times watches be issued way before a storm is classified. This just doesn't make any sense to me.