ATL: BILL - Post-Tropical

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wkwally
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#341 Postby wkwally » Mon Jun 15, 2015 3:16 pm

Was just outside for a smoke and looking out towards the gulf the cloud formations sure do look tropical here in Brownsville
Last edited by wkwally on Mon Jun 15, 2015 3:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#342 Postby Stormcenter » Mon Jun 15, 2015 3:17 pm

91L is the Rodney Dangerfield of tropical disturbances. IMO :roll:

Portastorm wrote:No "Bill" yet. NHC just tweeted that no advisories will be issued at 5 p.m. Eastern. Next plane in system at 8 p.m.
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#343 Postby Extratropical94 » Mon Jun 15, 2015 3:18 pm

northjaxpro wrote:NHC is simply waiting for Recon to confirm before upgrading when they get in there early this evening. I will say it is definitely better organized than when I last checked in earlier today around 12Z this morning.


That's also what I think. They'll probably let the recon aircraft do a few passes and then declare the system a TS in the 0Z best track update and start the advisory cycle three hours later in case the plane finds something truly organized.

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#344 Postby SouthDadeFish » Mon Jun 15, 2015 3:19 pm

Still seems to my eye that the low and mid level centers are not aligned. MLC looks to be trailing back to the SE a bit. This will slow the intensification process. Other than that, the system looks pretty good.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#345 Postby Nederlander » Mon Jun 15, 2015 3:20 pm

Stormcenter wrote:91L is the Rodney Dangerfield of tropical disturbances. IMO :roll:

Portastorm wrote:No "Bill" yet. NHC just tweeted that no advisories will be issued at 5 p.m. Eastern. Next plane in system at 8 p.m.

Best post of the day lol
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#346 Postby ozonepete » Mon Jun 15, 2015 3:20 pm

Wow. No warnings at 5PM is a little surprising. If warnings do go up it's going to be one of the shortest lead times that I can remember in recent history. Be very careful to note this is not a criticism. I'm just wondering out loud why they won't go ahead and give a few more hours notice. My suspicion is that they don't expect any RI and it is important to note the SSTs near the coast drop off to below 26C (even below 25) well before it landfalls. I suspect they just don't expect a very strong storm but rather a prodigious rainmaker and local OEMs already know that.
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#347 Postby EquusStorm » Mon Jun 15, 2015 3:22 pm

I sense they're gonna have to back up the formation time of Bill by at least 12 hours or so in post-storm analysis at this point. This already seems more organized than quite a few other classified past tropical storms... they seem waaay more conservative with this storm than they usually are. No doubt they will find a rather organized tropical storm, perhaps a strong one, tonight.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#348 Postby SouthDadeFish » Mon Jun 15, 2015 3:23 pm

ozonepete wrote:Wow. No warnings at 5PM is a little surprising. If warnings do go up it's going to be one of the shortest lead times that I can remember in recent history. Be very careful to note this is not a criticism. I'm just wondering out loud why they won't go ahead and give a few more hours notice. My suspicion is that they don't expect any RI and it is important to note the SSTs near the coast drop off to below 26C (even below 25) well before it landfalls. I suspect they just don't expect a very strong storm but rather a prodigious rainmaker and local OEMs already know that.


My friend, where do you see those SSTs near the coast? This says otherwise:

https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/dsdt/cwtg/wgof.html

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#349 Postby wkwally » Mon Jun 15, 2015 3:25 pm

I am a little surprised that at the very least no watches have been issued. I am sure that even if this storm does not get a name there will still be tropical storm conditions in the area of landfall and I am also sure that Houston is going to be slammed as they do not need anymore rain. I have already told my daughter and her friends up there to take percautions for this and to stock up for a couple of days as I am almose sure that they will be flooded IMO
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#350 Postby Extratropical94 » Mon Jun 15, 2015 3:29 pm

Have they ever done THAT before? (taken directly from http://www.nhc.noaa.gov)

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#351 Postby Alyono » Mon Jun 15, 2015 3:31 pm

wkwally wrote:I am a little surprised that at the very least no watches have been issued. I am sure that even if this storm does not get a name there will still be tropical storm conditions in the area of landfall and I am also sure that Houston is going to be slammed as they do not need anymore rain. I have already told my daughter and her friends up there to take percautions for this and to stock up for a couple of days as I am almose sure that they will be flooded IMO
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takes the government 10 years to do what it takes private industry 10 minutes
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Re:

#352 Postby wkwally » Mon Jun 15, 2015 3:31 pm

Extratropical94 wrote:Have they ever done THAT before? (taken directly from http://www.nhc.noaa.gov)

Image

Sounds to me like someone is under the gun
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#353 Postby Tireman4 » Mon Jun 15, 2015 3:33 pm

Extratropical94 wrote:Have they ever done THAT before? (taken directly from http://www.nhc.noaa.gov)

Image


I have never heard or seen that before. I have been listening and watching NHC advisories since...well Tropical Storm Delia in 1973..and before...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_ ... %281973%29
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#354 Postby jasons2k » Mon Jun 15, 2015 3:34 pm

I don't understand. They've initiated advisories numerous times in the past based on satellite/buoy/other data without a plane.

The biggest headache with this is that it forces employers/schools/etc. to make decisions for tomorrow after-hours. It's going to be quite a scramble to communicate all the closings and other impacts last-minute.
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#355 Postby Hurricane Jed » Mon Jun 15, 2015 3:34 pm

And we wait... Regardless this is going to be a flooding mess. I'm worried.
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#356 Postby Portastorm » Mon Jun 15, 2015 3:37 pm

jasons wrote:I don't understand. They've initiated advisories numerous times in the past based on satellite/buoy/other data without a plane.

The biggest headache with this is that it forces employers/schools/etc. to make decisions for tomorrow after-hours. It's going to be quite a scramble to communicate all the closings and other impacts last-minute.


In many cases, yes ... but I do know of a number of school districts and employers who use private sector weather companies for their decisions. Many got tired of dealing with the NWS and NHC probably because of situations just like this one. Everyone along or east of I-35 in Texas should know by now that a boatload of rain is coming.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#357 Postby wkwally » Mon Jun 15, 2015 3:37 pm

I have a bad feeling about this one. I hope I am wrong and the NHC is seeing something I am not.

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Re:

#358 Postby Alyono » Mon Jun 15, 2015 3:37 pm

jasons wrote:I don't understand. They've initiated advisories numerous times in the past based on satellite/buoy/other data without a plane.

The biggest headache with this is that it forces employers/schools/etc. to make decisions for tomorrow after-hours. It's going to be quite a scramble to communicate all the closings and other impacts last-minute.


most of them have private services. NHC is not playing as big of a role as one may expect
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#359 Postby xironman » Mon Jun 15, 2015 3:38 pm

Some nice hot towers blowing off the NE sector, maybe if they wrap around the storm will get going with a forming core.
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Re: Re:

#360 Postby davidiowx » Mon Jun 15, 2015 3:40 pm

Alyono wrote:
jasons wrote:I don't understand. They've initiated advisories numerous times in the past based on satellite/buoy/other data without a plane.

The biggest headache with this is that it forces employers/schools/etc. to make decisions for tomorrow after-hours. It's going to be quite a scramble to communicate all the closings and other impacts last-minute.


most of them have private services. NHC is not playing as big of a role as one may expect


This exactly. I am still surprised the NHC hasn't at least issued watches. I have seen so many times watches be issued way before a storm is classified. This just doesn't make any sense to me.
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