Texas Summer-2015

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Tireman4
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Re: Texas Summer-2015

#161 Postby Tireman4 » Wed Jul 15, 2015 1:19 pm

wxman57 wrote:Ah, the extended cold which began last September is finally over! Temperatures reached the mid 90s across southeast Texas. I was outside enjoying the heat all last weekend and I think I might take Friday off for another extended weekend outside. The only sad part about this time of year is that the first cold front of the year will arrive in 5-6 weeks. Better get out there and enjoy the heat while you can!


Umm...I maybe dense sir, but I cannot let this one get way....5-6 weeks from now ( July 15) is August 22-29. Climo suggests a cold front front September 25. Either the heat has finally gotten to you ( sure that did not happen) or you know something we do not. What gives?
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Re: Texas Summer-2015

#162 Postby BrokenGlassRepublicn » Wed Jul 15, 2015 2:23 pm

wxman57 wrote:Ah, the extended cold which began last September is finally over! Temperatures reached the mid 90s across southeast Texas. I was outside enjoying the heat all last weekend and I think I might take Friday off for another extended weekend outside. The only sad part about this time of year is that the first cold front of the year will arrive in 5-6 weeks. Better get out there and enjoy the heat while you can!

So, the day after the giant Boston pile of dirty snow finally melts away, and wxman57 returns from his slumber. Coincidence?
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Re: Texas Summer-2015

#163 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jul 15, 2015 3:51 pm

Tireman4 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Ah, the extended cold which began last September is finally over! Temperatures reached the mid 90s across southeast Texas. I was outside enjoying the heat all last weekend and I think I might take Friday off for another extended weekend outside. The only sad part about this time of year is that the first cold front of the year will arrive in 5-6 weeks. Better get out there and enjoy the heat while you can!


Umm...I maybe dense sir, but I cannot let this one get way....5-6 weeks from now ( July 15) is August 22-29. Climo suggests a cold front front September 25. Either the heat has finally gotten to you ( sure that did not happen) or you know something we do not. What gives?


I meant 8-9 weeks. Should have used my calculator. ;-)
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Re: Texas Summer-2015

#164 Postby Tireman4 » Wed Jul 15, 2015 5:39 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Tireman4 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Ah, the extended cold which began last September is finally over! Temperatures reached the mid 90s across southeast Texas. I was outside enjoying the heat all last weekend and I think I might take Friday off for another extended weekend outside. The only sad part about this time of year is that the first cold front of the year will arrive in 5-6 weeks. Better get out there and enjoy the heat while you can!


Umm...I maybe dense sir, but I cannot let this one get way....5-6 weeks from now ( July 15) is August 22-29. Climo suggests a cold front front September 25. Either the heat has finally gotten to you ( sure that did not happen) or you know something we do not. What gives?


I meant 8-9 weeks. Should have used my calculator. ;-)

Great...I was doing the happy dance for nothing.....ughh
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Re: Texas Summer-2015

#165 Postby Brent » Wed Jul 15, 2015 10:24 pm

wxman57 wrote:Ah, the extended cold which began last September is finally over! Temperatures reached the mid 90s across southeast Texas. I was outside enjoying the heat all last weekend and I think I might take Friday off for another extended weekend outside. The only sad part about this time of year is that the first cold front of the year will arrive in 5-6 weeks. Better get out there and enjoy the heat while you can!


don't even joke like that! :P
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Re: Texas Summer-2015

#166 Postby Ptarmigan » Wed Jul 15, 2015 11:30 pm

wxman57 wrote:Ah, the extended cold which began last September is finally over! Temperatures reached the mid 90s across southeast Texas. I was outside enjoying the heat all last weekend and I think I might take Friday off for another extended weekend outside. The only sad part about this time of year is that the first cold front of the year will arrive in 5-6 weeks. Better get out there and enjoy the heat while you can!


I guess you would not like Pluto. :cold: :froze:
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Re: Texas Summer-2015

#167 Postby kenfa03 » Thu Jul 16, 2015 5:39 am

Any sign of rain in the future?
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Re: Texas Summer-2015

#168 Postby South Texas Storms » Thu Jul 16, 2015 5:50 am

kenfa03 wrote:Any sign of rain in the future?


Welcome to Storm2k! A large ridge of high pressure will remain over the region through much of the next 7 days. Unfortunately, not much change in the weather pattern is expected.
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Re: Texas Summer-2015

#169 Postby Portastorm » Thu Jul 16, 2015 9:23 am

It is wxman57's world for the next two months ... we're just living in it.

:roll:
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Re: Texas Summer-2015

#170 Postby aggiecutter » Thu Jul 16, 2015 9:23 am

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Re: Texas Summer-2015

#171 Postby wxman57 » Thu Jul 16, 2015 10:35 am

kenfa03 wrote:Any sign of rain in the future?


In the future? Yes, but not the near future. Perhaps the pattern will change in early August. Here's the overnight GFS run showing total rainfall across Texas for the next 10 days:

Image
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Re: Texas Summer-2015

#172 Postby Janie2006 » Thu Jul 16, 2015 10:37 am

Portastorm wrote:It is wxman57's world for the next two months ... we're just living in it.

:roll:


Nicely played, sir! :lol:

The big ridge of high pressure is making its presence felt over here as well. Whilst the Gulf provides some handy sea breeze summer storms and we have a fairly high soil moisture content, we could see excessive heat warnings this weekend with those indices up to 113 possible in some places. The Heat Miser is having his way with all of us. :cry: :blowup:
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Re: Texas Summer-2015

#173 Postby Tireman4 » Thu Jul 16, 2015 11:15 am

Ptarmigan wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Ah, the extended cold which began last September is finally over! Temperatures reached the mid 90s across southeast Texas. I was outside enjoying the heat all last weekend and I think I might take Friday off for another extended weekend outside. The only sad part about this time of year is that the first cold front of the year will arrive in 5-6 weeks. Better get out there and enjoy the heat while you can!


I guess you would not like Pluto. :cold: :froze:



Nahh, he is more of a Mercury man himself...:)
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#174 Postby Ntxw » Thu Jul 16, 2015 12:55 pm

I'm really hoping this El Nino pulls through come August. It's not looking like significant rainfall is going to happen rest of July. The indicators for rain are there (SOI, tropical convection, etc) but I guess you can't fight climo with the moving ridge. Eventually though the strong Nino will win.
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Re: Texas Summer-2015

#175 Postby Portastorm » Thu Jul 16, 2015 1:22 pm

I go back to something I posted a month or two ago ... if you look at similar year analogs where you have a strong or "strongish" Nino developing through summer, you will see a dry and warm State of Texas in those analog years. This is nothing unusual. And as you have pointed out, Ntxw, once we get close to the seasonal change ... the "little boy" will make his presence known.
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Re: Texas Summer-2015

#176 Postby Tireman4 » Thu Jul 16, 2015 1:45 pm

Portastorm wrote:I go back to something I posted a month or two ago ... if you look at similar year analogs where you have a strong or "strongish" Nino developing through summer, you will see a dry and warm State of Texas in those analog years. This is nothing unusual. And as you have pointed out, Ntxw, once we get close to the seasonal change ... the "little boy" will make his presence known.


We need a ticker for the days counting down to September 25th...:)
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#177 Postby weatherdude1108 » Thu Jul 16, 2015 1:58 pm

Yeah, we just have to wait patiently for the youngster. I just got spoiled by the over 17 inches of rain in May and over 8 inches in June with below normal temperatures here.

The weather guy said today that we may go the entire month of July without any rain. July is the driest month of the year here (and most of Texas) climatologically, but normal July rainfall is still over an inch here in Austin. The meteorological Law of Averages is apparently playing out, in an EXTREME way. :roll:
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Re: Texas Summer-2015

#178 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Thu Jul 16, 2015 3:27 pm

Portastorm wrote:I go back to something I posted a month or two ago ... if you look at similar year analogs where you have a strong or "strongish" Nino developing through summer, you will see a dry and warm State of Texas in those analog years. This is nothing unusual. And as you have pointed out, Ntxw, once we get close to the seasonal change ... the "little boy" will make his presence known.


Is '93 considered El nino-ish? I rememeber we or Texas didnt have rain for 90 days at one point. This is a summer thread, but as far as the rain coming, i think late sept into October we can expect big big rains again. Dont want to compare to April since it was so historic but i think we can see significant amount of rainfall. Nino will be at full tilt with fronts coming down. Also the fronts may stall across the state making the situation even worse. I'm legit excited for this fall/winter with the way analogs are playing. '72-'73 as Ntx is saying looks to be the best one and it looks very exciting. My new weather station i have in place is making me all giddy about it as well.

Another thing, can someone explain this tweet?
https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/6 ... 3512518656
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Re: Texas Summer-2015

#179 Postby wxman57 » Thu Jul 16, 2015 3:56 pm

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:Is '93 considered El nino-ish? I remember we or Texas didn't have rain for 90 days at one point. This is a summer thread, but as far as the rain coming, i think late sept into October we can expect big big rains again. Don't want to compare to April since it was so historic but i think we can see significant amount of rainfall. Nino will be at full tilt with fronts coming down. Also the fronts may stall across the state making the situation even worse. I'm legit excited for this fall/winter with the way analogs are playing. '72-'73 as Ntx is saying looks to be the best one and it looks very exciting. My new weather station i have in place is making me all giddy about it as well.

Another thing, can someone explain this tweet?
https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/6 ... 3512518656


You can check previous years here:
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

For 1993, the May-July average was +0.6 degrees. It was a borderline weak El Nino. The temperature anomaly for June-August dropped to +0.3 degrees.

The winters of '72-'73 and '57-'58 look analog-ish when considering only the El Nino status. I remember some snow in south Louisiana in both those winters. Snow in winter is OK, as long as the rest of the winter is not cold. :wink:
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Re: Texas Summer-2015

#180 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Thu Jul 16, 2015 4:23 pm

wxman57 wrote:
TeamPlayersBlue wrote:Is '93 considered El nino-ish? I remember we or Texas didn't have rain for 90 days at one point. This is a summer thread, but as far as the rain coming, i think late sept into October we can expect big big rains again. Don't want to compare to April since it was so historic but i think we can see significant amount of rainfall. Nino will be at full tilt with fronts coming down. Also the fronts may stall across the state making the situation even worse. I'm legit excited for this fall/winter with the way analogs are playing. '72-'73 as Ntx is saying looks to be the best one and it looks very exciting. My new weather station i have in place is making me all giddy about it as well.

Another thing, can someone explain this tweet?
https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/6 ... 3512518656


You can check previous years here:
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

For 1993, the May-July average was +0.6 degrees. It was a borderline weak El Nino. The temperature anomaly for June-August dropped to +0.3 degrees.

The winters of '72-'73 and '57-'58 look analog-ish when considering only the El Nino status. I remember some snow in south Louisiana in both those winters. Snow in winter is OK, as long as the rest of the winter is not cold. :wink:


I checked wundermap for hourly data for IAH. Big cold fronts came through with more than a couple of snow/ice events. I know a family friend that said school was closed three times in early 1973 due to snow/ice. She went to Memorial High School.
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